How does a 15 HCP play the 15th at Augusta?

[Tom_Doak]

Jim,

I think one can certainly debate which shot is tougher - #8 at Pine Valley vs #15 at Augusta. In part it is a question of green size vs water. So, people can differ.

However, I raised the issue because of a conversation with Bob Lewis years ago wherein he talked about how challenging the downhill pitch at PV was. He is no 15 HCP, of course (4 time Walker Cup player, long time Pine Valley course record holder, one time Masters player).

So, if a player of that quality noted the challenge of controlling downhill pitches, why would anyone here question the challenge for a 15 HCP.

Tim:

On one of my trips to Pine Valley, Bill Shean had along six other golfers, all of them 5-handicaps or less.  I was still a 7 or an 8 back then.  We were to play 36 holes a day, two days.

At dinner the first night, one of the first-time visitors says, "I don't get why everyone is so scared of that 8th hole.  It's just a lob wedge second shot.  I hit the green both times and made two 3's.  There is no way I'm going to miss that green tomorrow."

So there was about $600 on the table in the next thirty seconds betting against him.

Day two, I'm his partner for the morning round.  He hits his tee shot to the perfect spot, same as the day before.  And he dumps his second shot into the bunker front right, and makes 6.  Made another 6 in the afternoon for good measure.

You're lucky you only played the one day.

[Patrick_Mucci]

I think the flaw in your position is the presumption that a 15 is looking to make par on and that he's routinely capable of making par on 15.

But, let's go back a step.

How did the 15 become a 15 ?

He had the LOWEST 10 out of the last a TWENTY scores averaged to produce the 15,
So he's essentially a bogey golfer on any one round

And, chances are he hasn't cut his teeth on a firm, fast golf course with awkward lies in the fairway.

In addition, you can't interpolate or exchange a top PGA Tour player's game for the game of a 15.

The tournament stats are irrelevant.

And, if you need a caddy to tell you how to play a hole, or shot, you can't be a good 15



Tim, thinking about our different perspectives, it ocurred to me one reason we might be looking at this differently. Do we agree this is the easiest hole on the course in relation to par? Both in the cumulative statistics since 1934, and in the 2013 average, this was the easiest hole. So, Masters players, in competition, believe that a par is loosing some to the field. They are looking at the pin when playing the third shot from across the pond because they are thinking birdie. They are not looking at the fat portion of the green, which I believe is a relatively easy shot. They are looking more often than not at a left or front pin position, which brings the water more into play.

A 10-15 handicapper is looking at par. He is perfectly happy to shoot for the safe part of the green, as caddies will quickly tell you. "That is a sucker pin position, aim for the right side of the green" was what my caddy told me. Stopping a 100-yard wedge on a 70 ft green was not tough. 

I would agree with you completely if I was being asked to go for the pin on a front right or left pin position. Anyway, this will lead to a new post about easiest and most difficult holes for pros and amateurs at ANGC.

M

[Jim Nugent]

MClutterbuck, the weakness in that list you presented -- of which holes are hardest/easiest at ANGC -- is the same as all rankings.  It doesn't show how hard the holes actually are.  15 is indeed the easiest against par.  But the average score in all Masters is virtually the same there as the other par 5s at ANGC.  15 averages 4.78, while 2 and 13 average 4.79.  8 is the hardest, but barely: it average 4.83. 

i.e. all the par 5s play basically the same to par, on average. 

Even if the pro's feel par has lost them a stroke at 15, on average it hasn't.  Most of the field does not birdie it or better. 

[Tim_Weiman]

Jim,

I think one can certainly debate which shot is tougher - #8 at Pine Valley vs #15 at Augusta. In part it is a question of green size vs water. So, people can differ.

However, I raised the issue because of a conversation with Bob Lewis years ago wherein he talked about how challenging the downhill pitch at PV was. He is no 15 HCP, of course (4 time Walker Cup player, long time Pine Valley course record holder, one time Masters player).

So, if a player of that quality noted the challenge of controlling downhill pitches, why would anyone here question the challenge for a 15 HCP.

Tim:

On one of my trips to Pine Valley, Bill Shean had along six other golfers, all of them 5-handicaps or less.  I was still a 7 or an 8 back then.  We were to play 36 holes a day, two days.

At dinner the first night, one of the first-time visitors says, "I don't get why everyone is so scared of that 8th hole.  It's just a lob wedge second shot.  I hit the green both times and made two 3's.  There is no way I'm going to miss that green tomorrow."

So there was about $600 on the table in the next thirty seconds betting against him.

Day two, I'm his partner for the morning round.  He hits his tee shot to the perfect spot, same as the day before.  And he dumps his second shot into the bunker front right, and makes 6.  Made another 6 in the afternoon for good measure.

You're lucky you only played the one day.

Tom,

I watched a few groups on #8 during the 1985 Walker Cup. My recollection is that a few guys missed the green. It wasn't easy even for players of that quality.

[MClutterbuck]

I think the flaw in your position is the presumption that a 15 is looking to make par on and that he's routinely capable of making par on 15.

But, let's go back a step.

How did the 15 become a 15 ?

He had the LOWEST 10 out of the last a TWENTY scores averaged to produce the 15,
So he's essentially a bogey golfer on any one round

And, chances are he hasn't cut his teeth on a firm, fast golf course with awkward lies in the fairway.

In addition, you can't interpolate or exchange a top PGA Tour player's game for the game of a 15.

The tournament stats are irrelevant.

And, if you need a caddy to tell you how to play a hole, or shot, you can't be a good 15



Tim, thinking about our different perspectives, it ocurred to me one reason we might be looking at this differently. Do we agree this is the easiest hole on the course in relation to par? Both in the cumulative statistics since 1934, and in the 2013 average, this was the easiest hole. So, Masters players, in competition, believe that a par is loosing some to the field. They are looking at the pin when playing the third shot from across the pond because they are thinking birdie. They are not looking at the fat portion of the green, which I believe is a relatively easy shot. They are looking more often than not at a left or front pin position, which brings the water more into play.

A 10-15 handicapper is looking at par. He is perfectly happy to shoot for the safe part of the green, as caddies will quickly tell you. "That is a sucker pin position, aim for the right side of the green" was what my caddy told me. Stopping a 100-yard wedge on a 70 ft green was not tough. 

I would agree with you completely if I was being asked to go for the pin on a front right or left pin position. Anyway, this will lead to a new post about easiest and most difficult holes for pros and amateurs at ANGC.

M

Pat, I meant not looking at birdie, like the pros. Par is fine, and bogey is certainly fine as well, the key of what I am saying is that the amateur is probably not, and probably should not, aim at the pin on 15. Also, the course is not that firm or fast outside the Masters. Finally, I agree completely and expressed it on this thread, the holes are not the same for pros and amateurs. Relative difficulty changes a lot.

[MClutterbuck]

MC,

On paper, obviously a 15 should not expect to par the #2 handicap hole on a course...but we always want to do what we can to best position ourselves for success, right? I wouldn't advise many people to plan from the tee to be short of the pond in 3, would you? Maybe a poor drive results in Plan B, but a 200 yard drive and a 175 second shot down the hill should get me inside 100 yards right?

Agreed Jim, even if your drive is at the left side of the FW, you can punch it down to close to 100 yards.

How far do you hit your average drive ?

The key for me then is to accept you should aim to the right side of the green, even if the pin is way left.

From what position would you do this ?
Far left fairway ?
Far right fairway ?

Assuming the hole is cut far left, and your shot to the far right was blocked, such that you were in the right hand bunker, do you think the most likely score you would post would be

Par
Bogey
Double bogey
Triple bogey
Worse

If you accept that might lead to a three putt bogey, I think that is the correct strategy for the mid handicapper.

Once again, you've assumed that the 15 handicap golfer is going to hit the green.

I've got $ 20,000 that says he won't.  $ 10,000 for him and $ 10,000 for you.

What's your handicap and what's the highest level of competition you've played in, and, at what course.
I'm just trying to clarify your ability, experience and understanding of tournament pressure for a 15 handicap who's never played at a high level of competition.

Thanks

Patrick,

I can hit my average drive about 250 yards.

I would aim to the right part of the green from anywhere in the fairway. I tried going for a short left pin position and the ball back spinned into the pond. That is not a shot i would try again.

From the right hand bunker I would be looking at a high number. I am not a good bunker player. I assume I would have a short out of the bunker, and risk three putts. So looking at a 6 or 7 if I blocked the approach badly into the bunker. But from 100 yards, that would be a really bad shot and probably fair to be in that position.

I averaged 6-7 three putt greens per round at ANGC. That is the killer part of the course.

[MClutterbuck]

MClutterbuck, the weakness in that list you presented -- of which holes are hardest/easiest at ANGC -- is the same as all rankings.  It doesn't show how hard the holes actually are.  15 is indeed the easiest against par.  But the average score in all Masters is virtually the same there as the other par 5s at ANGC.  15 averages 4.78, while 2 and 13 average 4.79.  8 is the hardest, but barely: it average 4.83. 

i.e. all the par 5s play basically the same to par, on average. 

Even if the pro's feel par has lost them a stroke at 15, on average it hasn't.  Most of the field does not birdie it or better. 

You are right on average, but we tend to watch the leaders, and especially on the week end. I bet that if you asked the 10 leading candidates to win the Masters this year, if they would sign right now for par on 15 on all 4 days, none of them would take you up on that offer. So, in fact, we are seeing those pros aim for the pin and try to make 4 on 15. And that is a very difficult shot.

[JESII]

Pat,

You're going to have to unbundle your post 303 if you want me to respond.

Just a thought, why don't you save the green ink and ask your questions outside the quote box...

[Patrick_Mucci]

Pat,

You're going to have to unbundle your post 303 if you want me to respond.

Done

Just a thought, why don't you save the green ink and ask your questions outside the quote box...

Because I only "think" outside the box ! 

[Patrick_Mucci]

I can hit my average drive about 250 yards.

Then, you're not going to get past the trees in the left side of the fairway, and that's part of my point.
Namely,  that it's very difficult for the 15 to put himself in the optimal position on # 15.
It's not like a 15 can automatically dial up where he'll hit his drive and second.
So, before he gets to the 30-50-80 zone, he has a lot of work to do.

I would aim to the right part of the green from anywhere in the fairway. I tried going for a short left pin position and the ball back spinned into the pond. That is not a shot i would try again.

I understand, but, there's an awkwardness associated with that shot.
Your feet tell you one thing and your mind says do another.
That creates uncertainty, the killer of many a shot/hole/round

From the right hand bunker I would be looking at a high number. I am not a good bunker player. I assume I would have a short out of the bunker, and risk three putts. So looking at a 6 or 7 if I blocked the approach badly into the bunker. But from 100 yards, that would be a really bad shot and probably fair to be in that position.

That's an awfully scary bunker shot.
Ditto for a chip/pitch from right of the green.

In golf, I've often found the chain reaction effect, where one bad shot leads to another.

I averaged 6-7 three putt greens per round at ANGC. That is the killer part of the course.

And, three putting isn't limited to approach shots on the green, I've seen many three putts from recovery shots.

It's a great course and a great experience if you get to play it.

[Tim_Weiman]

Pat,

I agree with your chain reaction comment, especially for mid handicapers. Also agree the 15 HCP is by no means guaranteed to set up the easiest third shot.

Like I said earlier, circa 1980 even players in the Masters didn't always do so.

[Jim Nugent]

The most interesting piece of info to come out of this thread for me is MClutterbuck (any shorter nickname we can call you by?) saying the 12 to 15 handicapper, playing from the members tees, will hit lots of greens at ANGC.  Didn't know that.  Isn't this true of many Doak courses -- they let you play your ball and get around the greens in regulation, only to learn that once there you have a whole lot of challenge left? Is it true of Mackenzie courses in general?   

[MClutterbuck]

The most interesting piece of info to come out of this thread for me is MClutterbuck (any shorter nickname we can call you by?) saying the 12 to 15 handicapper, playing from the members tees, will hit lots of greens at ANGC.  Didn't know that.  Isn't this true of many Doak courses -- they let you play your ball and get around the greens in regulation, only to learn that once there you have a whole lot of challenge left? Is it true of Mackenzie courses in general?   

Ha. Initials MAC would probably not be a good idea on this site. Marcos C or MC is fine.

This was at least my experience and this is probably true of 12 handicaps with relatively good long games and not as good putters.

I don't really like to talk about my rounds here, but I think it is interesting to see if others had similar experiences. I went back and checked my ANGC cards. I was an 11 back then. I don't play more than 15 rounds per year now and my home course has 14 holes with lakes and is really penal with very fast greens.

.  In my second round at ANGC, I had 13 greens in regulation.  I had 11 greens in regulation in my other rounds. Going into ANGC i thought i would be happy and proud if I broke 90. In fact, I was never in danger of being even close to 90. I probably will not get another chance at it, but I feel like breaking 80 was really close and would have done it had I putted better.

Overall, the experience at ANGC is amazing for the amateur player. Everybody is super nice, proud of their club, make you feel welcome and the course is set up for pure enjoyment.

[Patrick_Mucci]

The most interesting piece of info to come out of this thread for me is MClutterbuck (any shorter nickname we can call you by?) saying the 12 to 15 handicapper, playing from the members tees, will hit lots of greens at ANGC.  Didn't know that. 

You didn't know that because it's not true.
A 15 handicap from the Members Tees is NOT going to hit "lots" of greens.
  

[MClutterbuck]

The most interesting piece of info to come out of this thread for me is MClutterbuck (any shorter nickname we can call you by?) saying the 12 to 15 handicapper, playing from the members tees, will hit lots of greens at ANGC.  Didn't know that. 

You didn't know that because it's not true.
A 15 handicap from the Members Tees is NOT going to hit "lots" of greens.
  

Well, depends how you define lots...certainly he will hit more greens than say Las Colinas, Spyglass, Pebble or Stanford to name a few. We will have to disagree on this. Great aerial picture of 15 on golf.com today showing how wide the right part of 15 green is and how back water is not in play.

[Tim_Weiman]

MC,

Nice picture. I wasn't even thinking about the trees when I asked my original question, but that picture does highlight changes to that hole better than any other I have seen.

Agree, a 15 HCP isn't going to hit too many green at Pebble or Spyglass, but I only played Stanford once and don't remember it that well.

[Patrick_Mucci]

The most interesting piece of info to come out of this thread for me is MClutterbuck (any shorter nickname we can call you by?) saying the 12 to 15 handicapper, playing from the members tees, will hit lots of greens at ANGC.  Didn't know that. 

You didn't know that because it's not true.
A 15 handicap from the Members Tees is NOT going to hit "lots" of greens.
  

Well, depends how you define lots...

You initiated the use of the term.

As I previously cited, a 15 handicap gets his 15 handicap based on the lowest 10 of the most recent 20 scores.
Hence, a 15 is essentially a bogey golfer if one is going to view his game prospectively.

Bogey golfers don't hit many greens, let alone lots of greens.

While it's a hypothetical exercise, what greens do you feel that a 15 handicap would hit in regulation ?

certainly he will hit more greens than say Las Colinas, Spyglass, Pebble or Stanford to name a few.

That's pure speculation on your part.
ANGC plays about 6,400 from the Members tees.
Playing the above courses from similar distances, what makes you think that ANGC would yield more GIR ?

We will have to disagree on this.

We do

Great aerial picture of 15 on golf.com today showing how wide the right part of 15 green is and how back water is not in play.

Nothing could be further from the truth.
The back water is in play, especially when the hole is cut left.
Remember, the golfer, a 15 handicap is approaching that green from a down hill lie.
Any low shot, or blade is going to find that water.

I don't know how you ascribe such accuracy to a 15 handicap.
The one's I've known aren't exactly precision ball strikers with uncanny accuracy.

[DMoriarty]

Wow! That photo makes it seem like the hole in its present iteration would be extremely difficult for the short hitting 15 handicapper.  If he/she were to have any hope of getting to the left side of the fairway for the approach, wouldn't the golfer have to put his/her drive up against and almost behind the "new" trees on the right?

We often hear how the changes to the course have been aimed at the professionals, but that the changes have had a minimal impact on averse golfers from the members' tees.  But this photo strongly suggests otherwise.  Or is this photo somehow deceptive in this regard?

[Patrick_Mucci]

David,

You're correct.

The idea that this hole is a pushover or easy par for a 15 handicap is pure fantasy.

Just because the best golfers on the planet can birdie or eagle it doesn't mean it plays soft for the 15 handicapper.

It's a harder hole than it looks

Getting into position for a 15 handicapper is no easy task.

In order to get past the trees, a 15 handicapper would have to thread the left and right trees by hitting a 334 yard drive.

Just to get to the trees is a 282 yard drive.
Any drive left of center is now faced with having to thread the trees on the second shot by aiming to the right side of the hole, either fairway or rough.  That leaves him an incredibly awkward angle to a green that is narrow that falls away from him, that has water on three sides.

I'd love to sit and bet a 15 handicap on hitting the green from that location.
Given enough 15's, I could retire by season's end.

Take a look at Google Earth and lay out the angles for a second and third shot, for a drive left of center.

Alternatively, if we accept that most 15's slice the ball, now visualize play from a 220 drive sliced into the right rough.

When I played the hole a number of times, in the same years I was good enough to qualify for the USGA Senior Amateur, that hole was far from a pushover or an easy birdie or par for a low handicap player, so I don't know how the claim can be made that a 15 would easily par it.

And, if I add in the element of pressure, in terms of medal play and financial consequences, that hole becomes very difficult for anyone.

What many can't see from the aerial is the very difficult visual that the golfer sees as he's standing in the fairway and looking at that narrow sliver of land, in between two very visible bodies of water.

It's a very disconcerting view

[MClutterbuck]

David,

You're correct.

The idea that this hole is a pushover or easy par for a 15 handicap is pure fantasy.

Just because the best golfers on the planet can birdie or eagle it doesn't mean it plays soft for the 15 handicapper.

It's a harder hole than it looks

Getting into position for a 15 handicapper is no easy task.

In order to get past the trees, a 15 handicapper would have to thread the left and right trees by hitting a 334 yard drive.

Just to get to the trees is a 282 yard drive.
Any drive left of center is now faced with having to thread the trees on the second shot by aiming to the right side of the hole, either fairway or rough.  That leaves him an incredibly awkward angle to a green that is narrow that falls away from him, that has water on three sides.

I'd love to sit and bet a 15 handicap on hitting the green from that location.
Given enough 15's, I could retire by season's end.

Take a look at Google Earth and lay out the angles for a second and third shot, for a drive left of center.

Alternatively, if we accept that most 15's slice the ball, now visualize play from a 220 drive sliced into the right rough.

When I played the hole a number of times, in the same years I was good enough to qualify for the USGA Senior Amateur, that hole was far from a pushover or an easy birdie or par for a low handicap player, so I don't know how the claim can be made that a 15 would easily par it.

And, if I add in the element of pressure, in terms of medal play and financial consequences, that hole becomes very difficult for anyone.

What many can't see from the aerial is the very difficult visual that the golfer sees as he's standing in the fairway and looking at that narrow sliver of land, in between two very visible bodies of water.

It's a very disconcerting view

You are changing my words. One example, in my last post I state water does not come into play on the right side of the green. You respond it does with a left pin. I also never claimed it to be an easy par. I claimed the wedge is not one of the tougher shots for a 12 -15 handicap if he aims to the right part of the green. I will reply in full tomorrow.

[MClutterbuck]

Wow! That photo makes it seem like the hole in its present iteration would be extremely difficult for the short hitting 15 handicapper.  If he/she were to have any hope of getting to the left side of the fairway for the approach, wouldn't the golfer have to put his/her drive up against and almost behind the "new" trees on the right?

We often hear how the changes to the course have been aimed at the professionals, but that the changes have had a minimal impact on averse golfers from the members' tees.  But this photo strongly suggests otherwise.  Or is this photo somehow deceptive in this regard?

It is still relatively wide. Compare to 17...

[Patrick_Mucci]

Wow! That photo makes it seem like the hole in its present iteration would be extremely difficult for the short hitting 15 handicapper.  If he/she were to have any hope of getting to the left side of the fairway for the approach, wouldn't the golfer have to put his/her drive up against and almost behind the "new" trees on the right?

We often hear how the changes to the course have been aimed at the professionals, but that the changes have had a minimal impact on averse golfers from the members' tees.  But this photo strongly suggests otherwise.  Or is this photo somehow deceptive in this regard?

It is still relatively wide. Compare to 17...

# 17, like # 7 are narrow.
They look narrow and play narrow and any comparison to # 15 is misleading to the reader.
Any tee shot hit left of center on #. 15 is basically blocked out from advancing directly toward the green.
This creates an awkward second toward the right side which in turn creates a really awkward and difficult approach.

[Bryan Izatt]

Wow! That photo makes it seem like the hole in its present iteration would be extremely difficult for the short hitting 15 handicapper.  If he/she were to have any hope of getting to the left side of the fairway for the approach, wouldn't the golfer have to put his/her drive up against and almost behind the "new" trees on the right?

We often hear how the changes to the course have been aimed at the professionals, but that the changes have had a minimal impact on averse golfers from the members' tees.  But this photo strongly suggests otherwise.  Or is this photo somehow deceptive in this regard?

It is still relatively wide. Compare to 17...

# 17, like # 7 are narrow.
They look narrow and play narrow and any comparison to # 15 is misleading to the reader.
Any tee shot hit left of center on #. 15 is basically blocked out from advancing directly toward the green.
This creates an awkward second toward the right side which in turn creates a really awkward and difficult approach.

David,

I think the photo is deceptive.  The fairway up to the narrows is 50 yards wide - very generous.  After the narrows it's more like 55 yards wide.  The narrows is pretty generous at about 35 yards.

From the members tee it is about 220 yards to the first tree on the right.  Does your short hitting 15 hit it further than that?  It's a bit uphill from the tee.  It looks like there is an angle to anywhere down in the layup area from anywhere on the right half of the fairway if you drive it 220 yards.  Does your short hitting 15 have a decent short game to achieve his 15?


Patrick,

It's fairly clear that MC was contrasting the width of 15 to the narrowness of 17.  I'm surprised you missed that.  The 15th is about twice as wide as #17 (or #7).  Even the narrows at 15 is 50% wider than #17 or #7.

How far does your 15 hcp drive the ball?  The numbers you mentioned previously of 334 and 282 yards seem a little ambitious.  A more modest 15 who could drive it 250 yards would be left with a 140 - 150 yard second, and could still see the right side of the layup area from most of the left side of the fairway.

When you played it as an elite golfer, which tees did you play and how far did you usually drive the ball?  Did you go for the green or lay up.

Yes, I think any player would find the wedge shot challenging under duress - or even in a friendly.  How many people dunk balls at the 17th at Sawgrass from a flat tee at about this yardage even in casual games - a lot.  But, a lot hit the green too.


MC,

You are about to be sucked into the Mucci vortex of illogical debate where anything you write can and will be twisted to beat you down to moron status.  Just thought I'd give you a word of warning as that sucking sound grows louder.    

[DMoriarty]

It is not so much the width but the angle of the second shot, by the trees and to the best position for the approach. Start at the best place (which people have said is well left) and work your way back, drawing a straight line and leaving some reasonable clearance to get by the clump of trees on the golfer's left, and for an approach and draw a line back.  It doesn't seem like the short hitter even gets to his line.  If the golfer does, he/she is right next to the trees.   At least that it the way it looks.  Maybe it looks different in person. 

[Mark Bourgeois]

Well, depends how you define lots...certainly he will hit more greens than say Las Colinas, Spyglass, Pebble or Stanford to name a few. We will have to disagree on this. Great aerial picture of 15 on golf.com today showing how wide the right part of 15 green is and how back water is not in play.

Thanks for posting this picture, M. In case anyone does not understand the nature of the hole this makes it abundantly clear: Penal hole. Now, the next time anyone asks what a hole of the Penal School looks like, all you have to do is show this hole.