I don't see how such a all-or-nothing scenario can be assume, Adrian.
You just said that almost every new club built in recent decades have been proprietary. So obviously the status quo ante massively favored proprietary course creation over member courses, all things considered. I find it hard to believe that a 20% swing in the relative cost/price structure would completely turn that situation on its head.
It seems to me that member clubs will now have a significant but not overwhelming advantage in attracting visitor play, to the extent that a 20% change in price causes a change in visitor preference. It's bad news for proprietary clubs but it isn't like they are seeing their costs increase by 20%, they were already paying the VAT.
Brett- Think of this; most golf clubs struggle just to break even, there is no profit, so to give any head start to your competitor makes it difficult. At 20% it would be impossible. It is not 20% because the members clubs cant reclaim all the vat inputs. The real margin is more 13 or 14%. A lot of a clubs outgoings are labour. VAT has only recently risen to 20% when many clubs started it was only 8%, so currently its dreadful for these type of clubs. They will have an overwhelming advantage and it has already been agreed in court that it is distortion (pre todays ruling). Commercial clubs could sue the HMRC because it is against EU Law, but it takes time. I was told the HMRC could lose up to £3,000,000,000 if they lose every case and the ruling ends up going back to 1971.
Pretty much all new clubs in the last 30 yeas (probably anywhere in the world) are commercial, rarely will someone built a golf course at X millions and give it away. Under the UK situation it might be a labour of love but ultimately you want a return on your money....never is there 25% profits unless you have a real cheap and cheerful course.
Possible outcomes to the situation are.
1 Vat is restored to ALL golf clubs at 20% which mean UK members clubs subscriptions will rise 13-14%.
2 The HMRC treat ALL golf clubs as sports clubs and Vat exempt provided they belong to the EGU/SGU etc.
3 The GOVT continue to ignore the distortion and proprietary clubs go bankrupt or change their use.
The possibilty of 30 nice gentleman getting together (as used to happen) and building a members course with no profit intention is unlikely to happen, as proven by the last 30 -40 years and the number of members clubs.