A Cautionary Tale for all of the Architecture Students

[Tom_Doak]

While killing time in the Hong Kong airport this evening, I went back to read my Feature Interview from 2009.

At the end, Ran asked me what projects we had on the drawing board right then, and I listed:

2 courses that were complete and ready to open,
6 projects that had been routed and were stalled by the Global Financial Crisis,
4 projects that I was doing routings for,
2 places that I was looking at new projects,

(and a partridge in a pear tree  )

Four and a half years later, here's how that all worked out:

1 of the 2 courses I'd finished is open and thriving (Old Macdonald).  The other turned off the desal plant (Bay of Dreams).  I never did get to play it.

None of the 6 planned projects ever happened.  In fact, I have only ever heard from one of those clients in the past 4 years.  Some of them had paid us a chunk of money for their plans, though, which helped us survive the downturn.

We are just finishing up one of the 4 projects I was doing a routing for, in China.  Two of the others never happened, and the third may or may not.

1 of the 2 places I was looking at was central Florida, where we of course built Streamsong.  The other never materialized.

Luckily, in the meantime, we have come up with three other new projects that have kept us busy.  But the conversion rate for the sixteen projects I listed for Ran was a measly .188 batting average [3 for 16].  And I'm doing well!

If you want to work in this business, you'd better be prepared to roll with the punches.  And if the thought of that really scares you ... consider that my insurance guy plays a lot more golf than I do.

[Bill_McBride]

.188 is just about the Mendoza Line, one of my favorite baseball stats.   It's the mean batting average of American League shortstops and the only rationale for the detested designated hitter rule.  

.188 was probably not too bad in a brutal downturn.  Whatever doesn't kill you makes you stronger.  Hopefully your average will improve with the slowly improving economy.  

[Randy Thompson]

Through the years it seems our conversión rate is around one of ten and that´s ok if your chasing 10-20 projects. One gets a Little nervous when your chasing one or two! The best thing these kids should do is find a way to take the stairs to the top, via suoerintendent, construction, shaping(all of the above) or whatever and have something you enjoy to fall back on in the lows. Better yet..marry a rich girl!

[Brent Hutto]

Yeah but Doak and Co. are probably one of the best-hitting two or three shortstops in either league (to torture an analogy). I'll bet few firms in the entirety of Major League Architects were even successful .188 of the time during that period.

Probably a lot of 0-fers in the golf course biz over those four years...

[Don_Mahaffey]

I think the "three other projects that kept us busy" is as telling as the misses. In other words, you just don't know where the work will come from and that is why rolling with the punches and being persistent is so important.

I'm working on a project right now with an architect who has been in the business since he graduated college. He is forty now, and he has worked very hard to get to this point. He says that golf architects are the most insecure professionals he knows because of all the misses. I've worked a bit with some under the radar guys and to see how they are treated by more established names is disappointing. There is definitely a feeling like the rug can get pulled out at anytime. That insecurity is there for a reason. I think he has seen to many opportunities lost where one guy does so much of the set up and leg work for a project only to lose out at the end when the dirt work actually starts. So much work is done before any dirt is turned and so much can happen in that time.

Seems to me that Tom is one of the few out there still focusing on new course work. Most everyone else is fighting over renovation work and I wonder what the batting average is for some of the better knows in that arena.

In the end, if you want to work in golf, you'd better be tough and ready to stick it out. Good golf pro jobs are getting very scarce. Supers are not moving around and with fewer new courses, and more closing, supply is greater then demand. And then there is the architect story as Tom tells well. Seems to me the only segment of the business that continues to do well is the large golf contractors who stuck it out. Most of them seem pretty busy right now.

[PCCraig]

But I thought I read on here that I could switch careers at any time and become a golf architect?! 

[Ian Andrew]

And I am the other side of the business…

My batting average is way above Tom but I’ve never played in the post season.  

There’s a strong chance I may not build a new course from raw land this decade
I have had a couple of complete rebuilds come my way, but that’s not the same work.

I rely on a steady stream of existing client work
…or as Brian Silva hilariously described it, "I expand ladies tees for a living."
I rely on my "political" skills as much as my design skills to work

I’m the non-sexy reality of who is surviving in this economy.
I’m a one man niche business who's been at this for 25 years now.
That is who is busy here in North America.

I will never hire because it’s easier to turn down work when I’m really busy
No employees make it easier to manage being short of work and not have to worry because I have no overhead
Which means I'll likely never hire a student or a young architect starting out...

[Richard_Mandell]

All well said from above.  I have been keeping track of my proposals since 1992, when I had $5,000.00 to my name as I started Whole In One Design Group. I missed out on the good times of the mid-nineties because I "didn't have enough experience".  Then when the new century broke, I began to make consistent inroads on the renovation side.  By 2005, I was so busy with that work that I never had the time to go after any new work and sent very few proposals out in that regard.  The past six or seven years have been the best of my career despite what the economy has done and I think that has to do with plain old hard work and gutting it out, following a dream that I had in place since I was 15.  Thirty years later, I am still at it but still miss out on projects that I have worked hard to position myself for.

So here are my proposal stats over the years for just projects which warranted a physical proposal request (or if offered to give one which I wasted a lot of energy on in the mid-nineties) from a possible client (in other words, I don't keep track of the tire-kickers who want me to tell them what my fees are):

Dating to October 12, 1992:

261 proposals:  25 I am still waiting on a decision to be made (10%), 65 where they hired another architect (25%), 23 where no architect was ever hired (9%), 54 where I was hired (21%).   Since 2004, I have sent out 88 proposals (almost nine a year) and have a success rate of 23/88 (26%).  I would classify myself as quite busy in that time period (which is a big reason why I don't post on GCA as much as I like, coupled with a 5 and 9 year old).

Unfortunately for me, while my 25% success rate may be a nice number, those projects aren't all big-money projects.  

The biggest number of all is the 94 in my career where the projects never happened (36%).  That is a telling number that Tom alludes to as well.  Many of those were just guys with a piece of land, but some of those are well--established clubs that waste a lot of Architect's time.  One-third of the projects I sent proposals for NEVER HAPPENED.  Since 2004, the number of projects that never happened dropped to 16%, but that is not due to anything other than me being smarter about where I focus my energies.

I am really careful about the projects I chase due to the past of getting burned and that has probably kept me from taking chances for bigger and better things elsewhere.

[Mike_Young]

All of the above is why I am not sure the term "golf course architect" was ever a profession.  It is nothing more than a business and the more golf holistic one can make it the better chance he has.  Only a very few can make a living at it.  And when Il ook back I'm not sure many ever did at pure golf design.  My personal opinion is that this was recognized in the 40's and a group got together to form a society to lend credence and help justify the existence of the term "golf course architect" as a profession and add some aloofness in the golf industry.  A more accurate description would be that of artist, craftsman.  I feel I can say this since I've been doing it for the last 25 years or more.  But I was always one to build my own projects and for many of those years that was frowned upon and not considered "professional" by GCA standards.  And I also kept other businesses whether it be a golf course or an outdoor store ( backpacking, kayaking, biking etc) and my wife published a Supt Assoc magazine.  Quite simply golf course design is a business and not a profession.

I don't really look for rework because the competition is too great and too much money is spent for too little in fees or construction.  I would prefer to wait and do the new stuff when it hits.  I can show you friends who are dependent on rework and they are completely frustrated guys.  Yet they continue to buy into the myth that all of this will come back and there will be work for them.   I say baa-humbug...not going to happen unless you tske the risk and leave the drafting table and buy you a dozer.  Each designer has to figure out a way to live to fight another day and some just feel that is not "professional"...  

Think about  the entire GCA business in this way.  My next door neighbor is a violinist with the Atlanta Symphony and has attended the best schools.  A guy that lives a few houses down the street attended no music school, doesn't play an instrument and not sure he reads music and yet most all on this board have heard of him ...last name is Stipes.  I think he waited tables and other assorted jobs until the risk they took hit.  The classically trained musician can say he is not a professional or whatever they wish .  I don't think he cares.  

[JESII]

Ask any salesperson if they'd take a 20% success rate on their pipeline at any point in time and they'll take it because shit happens in all businesses.

[Richard Hetzel]

Tom,

Did the owners of Bay of Dreams not realize the expected cost of water for the course or was there an issue with the desalinization plant of some sort? You never played the finished product? You mean you were not flown in on the developer's G5 to hit the ceremonial tee shot as well as a free week of relaxation as a part of your contract? It's a shame that you were never even able to play it, that has to be tough.

[Richard_Mandell]

Jim,

I am absolutely ecstatic and proud of my success rate.  I know that if I get the right number of proposals out there (that are legit), then the numbers will take care of themselves.  My challenge is to get proposals on the books that have more value so my income will increase.  

[Steve Okula]

But the conversion rate for the sixteen projects I listed for Ran was a measly .188 batting average [3 for 16].  And I'm doing well!

But your hits were all for extra bases, so you've got that going for you, which is nice.  

[Matthew Lloyd]

Thanks for posting this breakdown, really interesting.  As somebody who works in the movie business, this also resonates very strongly with me.  This is partly why I'm drawn to the subject of golf course design -- I find it to be an incredibly creative and speculative industry, and one with a lot of similarities to the entertainment world in many ways. I don't know the exact statistics on the number of movies made versus scripts bought, but the frustrating process is similar to what you describe.  Projects are set up with enthusiasm, and often drift away for a variety of reasons, often without a good explanation.  

As several replies have already mentioned, of your projects that have gone through to completion, the body of work is amazing and the courses are all huge contributions to the field.  To me as an outside observer that is the real test.  You can't control the market or control the circumstances surrounding the creation of the course -- all you're responsible for is the quality of the product.  In the movie business all your ultimate goal is to create something that will endure and impact future filmmakers.  To me, this is what is so great about an influential golf course -- it will (knock on wood) last forever and become part of the history of the game and help shape the direction of design in the decades to come.

The themes I'm touching on and how I'm writing about them in this instance are a bit grandiose, I realize, but conceptually I do think this is the case with the courses you've designed.  Old Mac, Pac Dunes, Ballyneal et al are all going to stand apart for many years to come.  So the flip side of the cautionary tales you describe is that when you do get the opportunity to see a project through, really make it count because the opportunities can be few and far between in some instances.

[John McCarthy]

Matthew:

Yours is a very interesting comparison.  Writers in hollywood are notorious for have their vision stomped upon, rewritten etc.  Same with some directors in editing.  (See young sherlock holmes).

Yet great movies get made.  

Short of the St. James Bible, there are few great artistic endeavors done by committee.  There needs to be one person in charge, with the guts and pull to make something happen - plus the raw material to make it work.

[RBlair]

I loved how the start of the tread said you were waiting at airport in Hong Kong, that really made me laugh. I read these threads every night and have for years and that was great. Went back and read over the interview, interesting how things worked out.  If that flight back connects thru Tennessee let me know, hope trip goes well, just had to post on that one.

[Patrick_Mucci]

Tom Doak,

It's going to get worse.

The assault on hard working people who achieved success who seek enjoyment in playing golf will continue, unabated, resulting in many clubs going under and the golf and golf coures architecture environment becoming more and more difficult in the U.S.

Work overseas may be the saving grace for golf course architects.  

[Mark_F]

The assault on hard working people who achieved success who seek enjoyment in playing golf will continue, unabated

What do you mean by this, Patrick?

[Jeff_Brauer]

I think Pat means more govt restrictions on us having fun, in the supposed name of public good.  I don't think its quite that dire though. I recall the forward to the original World Atlas of Golf which predicted doom at the hands of the government, all because they had recently reduced the tax shelter status of golf......

As to the cautionary tale TD mentions in the OP, I don't have as detailed records as Richard Mandell, but my stats would be similar.  What is hard to figure is the cost of all that sales time.  I often had youngsters wonder how I could pay them $12 or $20 an hour (depending on era) and bill at $100.  Well, take out vacations, sick days, and things like writing and preparing graphics for 20-30 proposals a year and they only work 40% of the time on paying jobs.

I used to figure $5-6K per proposal.  So, I put out 12, get one, and then my "sales cost" fot that project is about $72K.  Fee is only $200K, so in some ways, just selling takes up more than a third of the revenues.  It doesn't actually seem that bad but if you don't account for sales time in your hourly rate, it can sink your business pretty fast.

It obviously helps a lot to get repeat biz from old clients without sales and get the odd ones that occasionally just fall in your lap.  I know the feeling of rejection is the hardest part for young associates (whose continued employment rests on successful proposals) and even the golf writers turned architects.  I think Ron Whitten had to take tums for interviews. Tommy knockers put in with a few architects over time, and could barely tolerate the rejections.

You know you are a professional when you can feel genuinely happy for the other guy when he deserves it, and tell yourself that you don't win them all.

[Jim Nugent]

Short of the St. James Bible, there are few great artistic endeavors done by committee.  There needs to be one person in charge, with the guts and pull to make something happen - plus the raw material to make it work.

Which makes TOC all that much more interesting.  No single architect.  On top of which, lots of other famous golf courses must split credit between several people.  Pine Valley and Merion come to mind.  

In some cases, beginners have produced world-class courses (Fownes and Oakmont; Crump and PV; maybe Leeds and Myopia).  I can't think of any type of art that is true of.  It makes me wonder how much of GCA is really art.    

[Tom_Doak]

Work overseas may be the saving grace for golf course architects.  

Patrick:

No, it won't.

I just landed in Australia to hear the latest gossip about an American architect building a project, who is being forced to the sidelines by the locals who have undercut him.

In China the same happens so often that it is actually pretty rare for an American designer to finish a project that he starts -- it is big news!

There is a huge Society of Australian Golf Course Architects.  There is a huge European Institute of Golf Course Architects.  There's even a Japan Society of Golf Course Architects ... even though there has not been a new course built in Japan for nearly twenty years.  When I meet them in my travels, they all tell me the same thing ... they wish I stayed at home.  And there are at least a few of their membership who are not above going around to my clients and telling them I won't be on site much and they would really be better off hiring a local guy.

Except for a very select few, I see the golf course design business moving back toward a more regional business, very quickly now.  And, honestly, the game would probably be better for it.  Which is why I'm training disciples from different parts of the world, to try and have an influence on the future.

[Steve Okula]

Tom Doak,

It's going to get worse.

The assault on hard working people who achieved success who seek enjoyment in playing golf will continue, unabated, ...

What assault is that? When did it begin?

[Don_Mahaffey]

...are a professional when you can feel genuinely happy for the other guy when he deserves it...

Getting to the "deserves it" list may be the toughest climb of all, don't you think Jeff?

[Jeff_Brauer]

Don,

Yes I suppose it is.  It takes a combo of skill, perseverance and luck to get that first job...and then the second and third seem even tougher.

Like you, I can get frustrated sometimes when looking at the final 5 list I am not on, and see a few guys who have very small resumes and wondering what they have that I don't.  Of course, I was one of those "whose that?" guys myself 20 years ago.  

Got a nice lead today, but the GM said flatly they had never heard of me, and wanted a "big name."  So I guess I still am!

Generally, I think I more prone than some in the biz to simply blame myself for not making my own case.  And to realize that not every job has my name on it.  Interesting question of trying to break into different markets, though.  For instance, I didn't go after that Wilmington deal, specifically because I know there are many Ross experts, and I don't have the chops there. Others didn't because of the ASGCA requirements  Would I like a chance at Ross renos?  Of course, and I think I would do a nice job. But, others just beat me to that market, and its more productive to keep going after what I do best.

If anyone wants a magic bullet, I don't think there is one.  I did get some good advice from Art Hills early on.  He said all you can do is what you promise to do, and if you always do good work, someone is bound to notice.  

It always seems like a straight line progression for the "other guys" to success, but if you dig deep - including the ultra successful TD in the original post, you see everyone, no matter how big or good has had some ups and downs, zigs and zags.  If the long established veterans in this biz seem unsympathetic, its because we have been there, and struggled, and we know the cream will rise to the top and others will struggle.  Despite protests to the contrary, things generally happen the way they "should."

[Patrick_Mucci]

Tom,

My money's on developing nations.

I suggest you start singing that Willie Nelson song, "Mammas, don't let your babies grow up to be architects"