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David Lott

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Does phil have a fair chance . . .
« on: June 16, 2013, 07:29:00 PM »
at a birdie on 18? Should he? Why make the last hole near impossible to birdie?

(Posted before he plays the 18th.)
David Lott

Wade Whitehead

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: Does phil have a fair chance . . .
« Reply #1 on: June 16, 2013, 08:08:52 PM »
He had a chance.  He was the last player in the entire tournament to make a 3 there!

WW

Jim Nelson

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: Does phil have a fair chance . . .
« Reply #2 on: June 16, 2013, 08:18:35 PM »
He had a chance.  He was the last player in the entire tournament to make a 3 there!

WW
Easier hole position.  Apparently, no one had a chance cuz no one made one in two days.  I would also add that having #5 be so long with such a punishing green is nuts too.  I know, I know, everyone has to play the same hole, but really, you could go around to just about any top 200 course and set it up as to be almost unplayable.  Merion is a great course, but I think most of the members enjoy it because it is fun, day in and day out.  When there is absolutely no chance for the best players in the world to get a birdie on a hole, it takes the fun out of the hole and the tournament, particularly when the leader has a one shot lead and the chaser needs to birdie the hole.  No drama at all. 
I arise in the morning torn between a desire to improve the world and a desire to enjoy the world.  This makes it hard to plan the day.  E. B. White

Garland Bayley

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: Does phil have a fair chance . . .
« Reply #3 on: June 16, 2013, 08:30:06 PM »
Yea, let's blame it on 18 being to hard. He had 71 previous holes the make up that one stroke. He just doesn't make all the shots/putts he should. He's an enormous talent, he's just no Tiger or Jack.

Johnny would probably tell you he's not even a Johnny. ;)
"I enjoy a course where the challenges are contained WITHIN it, and recovery is part of the game  not a course where the challenge is to stay ON it." Jeff Warne

Phil McDade

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: Does phil have a fair chance . . .
« Reply #4 on: June 16, 2013, 08:35:57 PM »
Why make the last hole near impossible to birdie?

(Posted before he plays the 18th.)

Because you'd end up with a crapload 18th like the one at Bethpage Black (played 6-iron/9-iron by Lucas Glover to clinch the US Open).

In my view, a US Open 18th hole ought to be a really tough par -- that if you do par it, chances are you no worse than even with the field and maybe even gaining a stroke. The leader in the tournament came to the 18th at Merion East with a one-stroke lead, and executed a well-played but tough par, with three very good shots. The mark of a champion.


Nigel Islam

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: Does phil have a fair chance . . .
« Reply #5 on: June 16, 2013, 08:40:20 PM »
Those last two iron shots Rose played and the drive on 18. Wow! If the 18th was a par 5 he would have needed eagle to tie 281 right? Great course, great champion. He deserved it.

BHoover

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: Does phil have a fair chance . . .
« Reply #6 on: June 16, 2013, 08:58:59 PM »
How did he not have a chance to make birdie? He missed the fairway (by a wide margin) and gave himself little chance for birdie, but that doesn't mean the hole is unfair. Rose nearly chipped in for birdie on 18 after a great drive and great second shot. Just because no one made birdie, that does not make the hole unfair.

Tom_Doak

  • Karma: +2/-1
Re: Does phil have a fair chance . . .
« Reply #7 on: June 16, 2013, 09:37:00 PM »
There is nothing wrong with a long par-4 having a severe green, though I prefer #5 at Merion to #18.  I've always wondered if that 18th hole was really as good as advertised, because it almost completely takes birdie out of the picture.  It's harder than heck.  But it was just as hard for Rose in front of Mickelson, so it's not "unfair".

Rose played the 18th the only way you could make a birdie ... knock it just through the back of the green, and try to chip in.  That's what I thought Phil was going to do, but he drove it in the rough and left his approach forty yards short.

Bill_McBride

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: Does phil have a fair chance . . .
« Reply #8 on: June 16, 2013, 09:44:02 PM »
Rose should get a whole lot of credit for his Hoganesque drive and second on 18, a terrific performance under pressure in a great Open. 

BHoover

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: Does phil have a fair chance . . .
« Reply #9 on: June 16, 2013, 09:47:44 PM »
Jason Dufner had a legitimate putt for birdie on 18 to close his final round.

Wade Whitehead

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: Does phil have a fair chance . . .
« Reply #10 on: June 16, 2013, 09:51:26 PM »
Phil should have won the tournament on 13 and 15, not on 18.

WW

Jason Thurman

  • Karma: +1/-0
Re: Does phil have a fair chance . . .
« Reply #11 on: June 16, 2013, 10:15:18 PM »
The 18th is 520 yards. Just how easy should it be to make eagle after a 3w off the tee that missed the fairway by thirty yards?
"There will always be haters. That’s just the way it is. Hating dudes marry hating women and have hating ass kids." - Evan Turner

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David Lott

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: Does phil have a fair chance . . .
« Reply #12 on: June 17, 2013, 01:49:17 AM »
There is nothing wrong with a long par-4 having a severe green, though I prefer #5 at Merion to #18.  I've always wondered if that 18th hole was really as good as advertised, because it almost completely takes birdie out of the picture.  It's harder than heck.  But it was just as hard for Rose in front of Mickelson, so it's not "unfair".

Rose played the 18th the only way you could make a birdie ... knock it just through the back of the green, and try to chip in.  That's what I thought Phil was going to do, but he drove it in the rough and left his approach forty yards short.


11 birdies at 18 all week proves that birdie is pretty much out of the picture. My question (it was not an assertion) was whether the final hole should be so difficult that birdie is a matter of luck. On the other hand, it gave Phil a chance to have one of the greatest single holes in Open history. Very slim chance, requiring more luck than skill.

17 had 22 birdies all week and 18 had 11, the two holes with the least birdies. That meant that coming from behind the tournament had to be won before the last two holes. The main drama on 18 was whether the leaders would bogey.

Personally I'd rather see more of a shot at birdie. But I'm a fan, not an expert.

David Lott

Garland Bayley

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: Does phil have a fair chance . . .
« Reply #13 on: June 17, 2013, 01:58:33 PM »
18 averaged over 4.7 strokes, so it was a par 5. Rose birdied, and Mickelson bogied. ;)
"I enjoy a course where the challenges are contained WITHIN it, and recovery is part of the game  not a course where the challenge is to stay ON it." Jeff Warne

Carl Rogers

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: Does phil have a fair chance . . .
« Reply #14 on: June 17, 2013, 04:01:10 PM »
I got lam-basted on another thread for saying 18 at Merion was too severe .... maybe I was not 100% wrong.

I sure don't have a clue how anyone makes a birdie except from the back of the green.
I decline to accept the end of man. ... William Faulkner

Howard Riefs

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: Does phil have a fair chance . . .
« Reply #15 on: June 17, 2013, 04:03:32 PM »
There were 71 other holes for Phil to save a stroke before he arrived at 18 tee box Sunday afternoon.  He had his chances.
"Golf combines two favorite American pastimes: Taking long walks and hitting things with a stick."  ~P.J. O'Rourke

Sam Morrow

Re: Does phil have a fair chance . . .
« Reply #16 on: June 17, 2013, 04:04:15 PM »
Did Phil play the same 18th hole as every other player that day?

Sven Nilsen

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: Does phil have a fair chance . . .
« Reply #17 on: June 17, 2013, 06:21:20 PM »
If the 18th were a birdie hole, Phil very well may have needed eagle to tie for a playoff.
"As much as we have learned about the history of golf architecture in the last ten plus years, I'm convinced we have only scratched the surface."  A GCA Poster

"There's the golf hole; play it any way you please." Donald Ross

Matthew Petersen

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: Does phil have a fair chance . . .
« Reply #18 on: June 17, 2013, 06:29:08 PM »
It's a half-par (at least) hole. So it's really hard to make a 3 there. Everyone knows that going in. Better to not need a 3 going to the last.

Garland Bayley

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: Does phil have a fair chance . . .
« Reply #19 on: June 17, 2013, 07:48:43 PM »
Phil made bogey with wedge in his hands on 13, and 15. Phil lost it there. Two pars and he wins. Concern that he couldn't birdie 18 is senseless.
"I enjoy a course where the challenges are contained WITHIN it, and recovery is part of the game  not a course where the challenge is to stay ON it." Jeff Warne

Ken Moum

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: Does phil have a fair chance . . .
« Reply #20 on: June 18, 2013, 01:00:45 AM »
17 had 22 birdies all week and 18 had 11, the two holes with the least birdies. That meant that coming from behind the tournament had to be won before the last two holes. The main drama on 18 was whether the leaders would bogey.


The problem with your argument is that using over and under par to calculate a golfer's position relative to other golfers who have played a different number of holes a completely artificial construct that has little to do with reality.

If the field was averaging 4.7 on 18 (which it was) then Rose's four on the 72nd hole did, in fact, gain about 3/4 of a stroke on the field.

Calling it a par five would have changed NOTHING about the math of winning a tournament.

When you say, "The main drama on 18 was whether the leaders would bogey," you are correct.  But calling those bogeys a par wouldn't make the actual drama any more intense, since everyone watching the event had a pretty good idea what the odds of make 4 were.

Just like the two par fives on the back nine at ANGC, 18 at Merion is a half par.  The fact that the USGA like half-par holes to be OVER par instead of under, doesn't change the math.  We all know that professional golfers about as likely to make a 4 on either 13 or 15 at Augusta than they are on 18 at Merion. 

FWIW the stats for 2013 show ANGC #15 at 4.6396  and ANGC #13 at 4.7532.   Merion's 18th averaged 4.7068

Calling a two a par four and the other a par five changes nothing about who ends up with the trophy.

K
Over time, the guy in the ideal position derives an advantage, and delivering him further  advantage is not worth making the rest of the players suffer at the expense of fun, variety, and ultimately cost -- Jeff Warne, 12-08-2010

Kevin_D

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: Does phil have a fair chance . . .
« Reply #21 on: June 19, 2013, 08:48:15 AM »
I thought it was quite fitting that the Champion played the hole better than anyone on the last day: perfect drive, fantastic second shot, and nearly making the short chip for birdie.  If that went in, he would have gained nearly 2 strokes on the field.

I really like Phil - he's a great guy, gutsy player, a class act all the way, and his affection for the fans is great for the game - but Rose was just terrific.  He really won it, making very few errors and sinking birdie putts on the holes on which he needed (and seems like an equally terrific guy and gracious winner).  What more could you want from the US Open winner?

I attended 3 of the 4 days (though split early on Sunday so watched the finish on TV) and thought this was probably the best sports spectating experience of my life.  I really hope the Open comes back in 10 years or so.

jeffwarne

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: Does phil have a fair chance . . .
« Reply #22 on: June 19, 2013, 08:56:42 AM »
D Cronan,
I guess when you have 5 wedges ::) ::)...
it's easier to hit the wrong one.

18 is 18 whether it's a par 3,4, or 5.
While it could be argued that it was difficult to make a three on 18, Duffner and Rose very nearly did.
and it was certainly virtually impossible to make a three from where Phil drove it.

Like the rest of the golf world, I was rooting for Phil, but he was outplayed by a great finish by Rose.
As stated, Phil lost it on 13 and 15 where his usual sharp wedge play wasn't-easily cost him 2-3 shots.
"Let's slow the damned greens down a bit, not take the character out of them." Tom Doak
"Take their focus off the grass and put it squarely on interesting golf." Don Mahaffey

Tim Martin

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: Does phil have a fair chance . . .
« Reply #23 on: June 19, 2013, 09:10:56 AM »
D Cronan,
I guess when you have 5 wedges ::) ::)...
it's easier to hit the wrong one.

18 is 18 whether it's a par 3,4, or 5.
While it could be argued that it was difficult to make a three on 18, Duffner and Rose very nearly did.
and it was certainly virtually impossible to make a three from where Phil drove it.

Like the rest of the golf world, I was rooting for Phil, but he was outplayed by a great finish by Rose.
As stated, Phil lost it on 13 and 15 where his usual sharp wedge play wasn't-easily cost him 2-3 shots.

The most amazing stat for me is that Rose did not make worse than bogey all week. On that set up that is golfing your ball. :o

Ronald Montesano

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: Does phil have a fair chance . . .
« Reply #24 on: June 20, 2013, 09:29:51 PM »
Did anyone hear the sound of the iron Justin Rose hit to approach 18? I wish all my iron shots sounded like that one.

That iron shot was from another world and the fact that it ran through the green shows that a proper approach to the hole went unrewarded. He landed it 60 feet (about two clubs) short of the hole and still it ran on. That's a sad commentary on the condition/firmness of that green.

Therefore, if anyone earned a birdie on 18, it was Rose, not Phil.
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