Hurricane Sandy looks like a Dandy

[Terry Lavin]

It's a fucking heartbreaker. Lives lost, houses gone, urban mayhem. Staggering. A marathon?  That's what the recovery will be.

[Dan Byrnes]

I wouldn't be surprised if we start seeing serious talk about building a levee/protection system to keep the metro NY area from experiencing this type of event.   It's too expensive to just rebuild on a regular basis.

The tough decision is trying to decide the scope, who gets coverage and who doesn't.   

Dan

[Mark Bourgeois]

Mike, yes I agree about the Rockaways that encompass Breezy Point and Belle Harbor -- I should have been more specific in referencing Far Rockaway.

Jud, I am disheartened to see you have lowered yourself to argumentum ad personam. Rather than reply directly I will simply note such comments lower both the content and civility of discussion, reflect poorly on the author's character and intelligence, and dissuade participation -- as in this case, where I am done with this topic and won't click on it again.

[V. Kmetz]

RJ Daley,

It's your long lost non-existing Marxist Bolshevik, Vin Kmetz here...just want to say that in this thread...YOU ARE ON FIRE BRO!

Those two posts you wrote early in the morning on 10/31/12 were beyond well-said; astounding, so on point were they.

Just in this small piddling board...I've read people talk about "their 2nd homes 250 miles to the East and the 160 miles to the West" and hurricane preparedness and overreaction and even...how this is distant 4th to 9/11; that they can't live under the yoke of THAT terror...

That's just it, isn't it?  Because that terror doesn't discriminate among the rich, the poor and could hurt people who for every other thing have the resources to be prepared.  A day where the rich have the same amount to lose like the poor.  No insurance for that, no generator for that, no 2nd or 3rd home or safe harbor to fly to for that, big government to yell at over that.

I wonder if the Iraqi citizens have a "Memorial Day" like we now have for 9/11...will they on March 19, 2013, toll the bell and read the names on the 10th anniversary of the 2nd US bombing of their ciapital and the beginning of civil war?  Would we the occupiers or the provisional government we set up ever allow that?  would we even know about it?

Well, way off topic and not up to your level of eloquence sir, but cheers to you.

cheers

vk



 

[M. Shea Sweeney]

.

 

[Jim_Kennedy]

While the U.S. property-casualty sector is considered flush with cash, its stocks have seen a 5% decline since news of Sandy’s potential destruction hit. And according to one Morgan Stanley analyst, the industry could see its earnings fall by 26%.

Disaster modeler Eqecat is forecasting losses for private insurers of up to $15 billion. Some estimates put that number at $20 billion. Those estimates do not include payouts from the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP), which is administered by FEMA.

State Farm Insurance, the largest homeowner policyholder along the eastern seaboard, has seen about 24,500 claims since the storm. Most of those claims are in New York, with 7,500, followed with 5,000 in New Jersey and another 1,500 in Virginia.

Writers of federal flood premiums last year had $342.8 million written in the tri-state area, while the property-casualty industry as a whole in 2011 wrote $2.8 billion in federal flood direct premiums, according to SNL. Of the coastal areas hardest hit by Sandy, about 90% of the coastal housing properties in Ocean City, Md. are insured, while 1% of the coastal housing properties in New York are.

Commercial properties, meanwhile, are only insured through the federal program for up to $500,000 in losses. And auto losses are not covered through the NFIP.

FEMA’s flood program, meanwhile, has at least $45 billion in policies in the tri-state area. But the agency may not have enough to cover claims made through the NFIP, as it still owes the U.S. Treasury about $18 billion from Hurricane Katrina losses.

A look at the numbers

New York City has about $2.7 trillion in coastal properties insured through the federal flood program. Neighboring New Jersey, meanwhile, had 230,708 flood policies written as of September 2011 with an insured value of $706.5 billion in 2012.

Farther south in Delaware, the national flood program has about 25,000 policies insuring $60.6 billion, as of 2007. Washington, D.C., has 2,128 policies, while Maryland has 70,200 insuring $17.1 billion in coastal properties.


Mike,
5.9 billion sound like a pittance compared to the above, and nothing is even mentioned about the loss of business revenue, wages, etc. 

[RJ_Daley]

Even the Italians with their notoriously gridlocked bureaucracy made a decision and are nearing completion of their controversial project MOSE. Even the Italian's government isn't as feckless to act as our held hostage Fed gov. largely due to not wanting it to look like their arch enemy may succeed, stymied by the recalcitrant party of no.   

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/MOSE_Project#Projections

Or, what about the Dutch?  Their Delta works was a major national commitment considered as a modern wonder of the world.  But then of course they are damn near Socialists over there! 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Netherlands#Delta_Works

At 4.7B-Euro for MOSE, that comes out to a wee less than this $5.9B stated in that article from Mike.  And, they don't get hurricanes and storms anywhere near what the entire Atlantic seaboard experiences.  Throw in global warming projections, and this seems like a no-brainer. 

Like Sweeney's link about post hurricane economic stim effects, this could be an infrastucture big ass stimulus to the economy.  It is better than sweat shop labor resultant from tax breaks for the minimum wage 'job creators'.  We bailed out Wall St to the tune of 100X (750B Tarp) so this is a piss in the bucket.  Or, you could follow one fellow's campaign trail proclamation and "send it back to the States - or better to private business"  Now there is a rocket scientist brainstorm at work!    Broke ass N.J. and N.Y. should do all this on their own, not bother us folk in the rest of the country with that big gobment socialist mentality.  We should all be responsible for ourselves and our own local and state problems.  Hey?

[Jud_T]

Jud, I am disheartened to see you have lowered yourself to argumentum ad personam. Rather than reply directly I will simply note such comments lower both the content and civility of discussion, reflect poorly on the author's character and intelligence, and dissuade participation -- as in this case, where I am done with this topic and won't click on it again.

Mark,

You implied that it was politically misplaced for the initial focus to be on getting power back on in lower Manhattan as it was merely Wall Street and a couple of hospitals that stood to benefit.  So either you were spewing typical liberal crap, or you were shockingly ignorant of the facts.

[Mike Sweeney]

And auto losses are not covered through the NFIP.

Mike,
5.9 billion sound like a pittance compared to the above, and nothing is even mentioned about the loss of business revenue, wages, etc.  

Jim,

Two comments:

1. The family that was staying with us from downtown this week had their car destroyed in an underground garage that was flooded. Insurance covered them before they even got the car out of the garage, and he leased a new car on Friday. We will all pay higher premiums. They have been notified that their electricity is scheduled to be back on Saturday night.

2. $5.9 billion is cheap, if it works. There will be lots and lots of "deals" to stop the flooding of NYC in the coming years. Problem is, will they work? Hurricanes and floods are awfully powerful. You know the power of water running downhill on a mountain, now make that an ocean and a levee system for NYC sounds like a long shot to me.

I can fly this weekend to the Dominican Republic and get Stem Cell treatment for Autism that was recommended by a doctor that I respect for $25,000 for my son. When I ask for the clinical data, everyone goes silent. It is a decision I make everyday, spend now to improve his life or save for his future....

No city planner in the world today would build the largest city in America on a series of islands and a peninsula. New York is the classic "sunk cost dilemma":

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sunk_cost_dilemma

[Jim_Kennedy]

Mike,
Reminds me of all the bandaids I put on some of the cars I've owned, until I was forced to junk them. It was worth the cost, at least until I could come up with the money to replace them.
                               
This seems like the perfect opportunity for a public/private association. Correct me if I'm wrong, but insurance companies have vast resources, the federal government has a vast management infrastructure, and there are millions of people (including returning service men and women) looking for jobs.

We have the scientific, engineering, and construction capabilities to work out a plan. Might as well start with trying to protect New York City and its environs.  

 

[Dan Herrmann]

Jim - great ideas, great attitude!

[Mark Steffey]

what would the environmental costs be for such a levee in ny harbor?   is there a turtle or something that would become endangered?

[Carl Johnson]

If it happens three more times, then MAYBE politicians start to think about a long term solution. $5.9 billion is alot of money even in NYC.  

Politicians will not think about long-term solutions until the electorate becomes more concerned about long-term solutions than short-term concerns.

[Malcolm Mckinnon]

If you want to see a NOAA photo tour of the NJ coast post "Sandy" you can view it here...

http://storms.ngs.noaa.gov/storms/sandy/

In Princeton, NJ during the first few days without power we went over to the Nassau Inn where they had TV, Internet and a full bar. Many of the hotel guests were evacuees from the coast including a couple from Mantoloking who were pretty much convinced that their house was destroyed. They were shell shocked and it was heartbreaking.

It is unbelievable where the storm breached the barrier island at Mantoloking. The same thing happened on Cape Cod near Chatham years ago threatening the town of Chatham with battering waves. In the case of Mantoloking it just ripped a new ocean to bay seaway right through the center of town.

[Bill Brightly]

Here is a before and after photo of the bridge leading Mantaloking. Rt 35 is the north south road shown in the top photo, and it is gone in the second. So sad.

[Dan Byrnes]

I wonder how the water has receded in Mataloking, will that breach be permanent.  Aware of the Chatham one.

Dan

[Bill Brightly]

Dan,

My understanding is that the land will be reclaimed. In fact, I heard that they are making (or have made) temporary repairs to the bridge to allow access via that bridge.

On a somewhat lighter note, I hear there is a boat on the (new) 16th green at Manasquan River Golf Club.

Here's another before and after, this on is Ortley Beach:

[Patrick_Mucci]

I wouldn't be surprised if we start seeing serious talk about building a levee/protection system to keep the metro NY area from experiencing this type of event.   It's too expensive to just rebuild on a regular basis.

Dan,

I would be impossible to build a levee/protection system in the Metro NY area.
The area is so vast and access to the shoreline so critical for so many.

Like in Medicine, with Mother Nature, there are certain events that you just can't be protected from.

The tough decision is trying to decide the scope, who gets coverage and who doesn't.   

Dan

[Tiger_Bernhardt]

I owe you guys an apology. A cat one hurricane of that size, strength, barometric pressure and storm surge with more rain is not that big a deal down on the gulf coast. We have infrastructure and trained personel  including pumps that are sorely lacking in New Jersey and NYC. Now the facts are people are hurt, homeless and without utilities. We are used to living without power, food, fuel etc and prepare accordingly for it. But if an area is not prepared it is a hard tough period of time while one waits for normalcy in their lives to return. I have had 20 plus storms this big to much larger effect me and my property during life down here on the gulf coast. 8 have been direct hits where the eye went over me. I know even with perfect preparation and a best case situation a week is lost to the storm.  I hope the lessons learned are preparation is everything and politicians who give storms big names but do not provide preparation and infrastructure are not worth anything. You guys and the people who are hurt are in my prayers and my Monday mens prayer group. I hope the people call out Christie, Bloomberg, Pataki and the rest for not being prepared even after decades of warning shots in the area and storm after storm hits other areas in the USA. May your lives return to normal soon.

[Tiger_Bernhardt]

Jeff that is true about the water. I knew many years ago to not buy below the 3rd or 4th floor in a building fronting on the gulf.  It is completely within the world of reality for a 15 to 25 foot high storm surge/wave at the point of entry to land can occur. The first few floors of a building on the shore are eliminated from earth by it. However as one does the math on water displacement that changes over a few hundred yards. Even huge storms like  Betsy, Opal and Katrina only scorched the earth for a few blocks to half mile inland.

[jeffwarne]

I owe you guys an apology.  May your lives return to normal soon.

I took the liberty of editing your post.
I'm sure that's what you meant to say.

[Dan Byrnes]

I wouldn't be surprised if we start seeing serious talk about building a levee/protection system to keep the metro NY area from experiencing this type of event.   It's too expensive to just rebuild on a regular basis.

Dan,

I would be impossible to build a levee/protection system in the Metro NY area.
The area is so vast and access to the shoreline so critical for so many.

Like in Medicine, with Mother Nature, there are certain events that you just can't be protected from.

The tough decision is trying to decide the scope, who gets coverage and who doesn't.   

Dan

Only going by what I have read.  Seems that there are several European engineering groups who have plans and have built similar systems in Holland and elsewhere.  The hard part is deciding what should be covered as cost escalates.  I certainly may be wrong but the value and density of the areas assets and populations makes it more viable than most anywhere else?

Dan

[Jim_Kennedy]

As East Coasters still struggle to fully comprehend the damage caused by Sandy, thoughts are turning to how we can prepare for the possibility of another superstorm. It turns out the Dutch have already done some of out-of-the-box thinking that we could use to craft our own modern-day stormproofing plan.
 
New York City, like much of Holland, is built on low-lying land that's susceptible to the kind of surges caused by Hurricane Sandy. One Dutch solution was to make its coastline smaller wherever possible. After a devastating flood in 1916, the Dutch government built a complex system of dams, known as the Zuiderzee Works, to convert a former inlet of the North Sea into what's essentially a nice lake. Today, a coastal highway runs along the area, and the flood-control system protects a large area of the country, including Amsterdam. There hasn't been a severe flood in the region since the dams were built. In the southwestern part of the country, the Delta Works, a different system of dams and other flood-control measures, was put into place.
 
 
Experts argue that New York and New Jersey would be able to use a similar system. Engineering aside, the real impediment to such a plan, of course, is the price tag. A seminar at NYU in 2009 projected the cost to be in the neighborhood of $15 billion, but early estimates have Sandy costing $60 billion in property damage alone. Perhaps a large investment would be worth it.

Dan,
It is not impossible.

[Ronald Montesano]

Pataki? Tiger, he is no longer governor. That would be Cuomo II.

[Tiger_Bernhardt]

Sorry Stan, I knew that even though the Gov of NY doe snot get alot of play outside the area.. It also takes many years of not doing ones job to have much infrastructure undone. Thanks Jeff you are correct. No amount of hindsight makes someone sitting in the dark, cold and hungry feel good.