Paul:
Some of the details on Crump’s stick routing are a bit hard to analyze without enhancing a number of details. You did an overlay of it on the blue/red line topo and assuming you had everything lined up correctly it should show various and different feature positions (green and tee and direction) and different hole iterations in varying degrees.
In my opinion, the original stick routing was probably only in use for a couple of months (and it may’ve been partially the result of what Crump and friends did on the ground before a topo survey map of the property was available (March, 1913)) while the blue/red line topo was in use for over four years. There are also a number of green and tee position changes on the stick routing and a lot of cross-outs. #6 green was moved a number of times on the stick routing map and one can see an extension line drawn through the 16th green. The circle for #16 green on the stick routing may've been shorter but the extension line is probably where it was built unless Crump intended to build a green with fill into the swamp/lake which I doubt. One reason I doubt that is the present green is considered to be the only green that was completely natural. The archives refer to it as PV's only completely "natural green."
The original stick routing has so many changes on it I can understand why Crump apparently broke out a duplicate early on; probably at the time Colt showed up in May/June 1913.
Tom
Re the 16th green and that general area. The overlay I did isn't perfect, but it is pretty close. From that overlay I'm pretty sure that the stick diagram's 16th green/circle is just short of that narrowest neck of water between the 15th and 16th fairways. The line drawn extending from that circle is at the water's edge adjacent to the start of the current 15th fairway.
The 16th green site for the blue/red plan is about right but the green shape is wrong.
Also interestingly, Colt's blue pen outlines the lake peninsular between the current 16th and 14th greens. He also outlines (in blue) the island 15th tee but doesn't include it in the routing plan because it would have meant driving over the "blue" 14th green.
Since Colt highlighted the island, I can only speculate as to whether he considered it as a possible tee site option for 15. That photo of the 15th tee in the book Crump sent to Colt is from about 1915 I think.
But I guess (like you do) that the final routing question was always... where would the 14th green be? And it never gets fully fleshed out on that blue/red plan-it's just a black line- which may suggest it was after Crump's death.