Still have questions about the golf economy?

[Craig Van Egmond]

"According to the National Golf Foundation, there were 25.7 million golfers in America in 2011, down from a historic high of 30 million in 2005. Rounds played last year dropped to 463 million from 518 million in 2000. For the sixth year in a row, more golf courses in this country have closed than have opened (158 closures vs. 19 openings in 2011, according to the NGF). The frenzy of golf course construction from the mid-1980s through 2005 was primarily a real estate boom, not a golf boom."


I guess that answers the questions about the golf economy...

[George Pazin]

"According to the National Golf Foundation, there were 25.7 million golfers in America in 2011, down from a historic high of 30 million in 2005. Rounds played last year dropped to 463 million from 518 million in 2000. For the sixth year in a row, more golf courses in this country have closed than have opened (158 closures vs. 19 openings in 2011, according to the NGF). The frenzy of golf course construction from the mid-1980s through 2005 was primarily a real estate boom, not a golf boom."


I guess that answers the questions about the golf economy...

Silver lining: new courses have a better than 50/50 shot at being a top 10 new course!

[Craig Van Egmond]

"Silver lining: new courses have a better than 50/50 shot at being a top 10 new course!"

Good point!   So if you are one of the lucky ones to be actually building a new course in the United States congrats!

[Steve Strasheim]

My question is, will it ever get better?

I see very few young people on the courses I play.

[BCrosby]

"The frenzy of golf course construction from the mid-1980s through 2005 was primarily a real estate boom, not a golf boom."

Any recovery in new courses will have to wait on a recovery in residential real estate. I don't see that happening any time soon.

Bob

[Jim Colton]

I'm surprised that there were even 19 that opened in 2011. Are there any forecasts or guesses for 2012-13-14?

[David_Tepper]

Just remember, those stats are for the golf economy in the U.S. It is a big world.

[Shane Wright]

My question is, will it ever get better?

I see very few young people on the courses I play.

I still believe it can get better.  But golf, the USGA, golf courses, etc, better figure out a better way to market to mothers, women, and children, otherwise the game is not going to grow.  

[Jeff_Brauer]

The golf design market is about as flat as a tee right now.....

Shane,

Tee It Forward, PGA 2.0 and other industry initiatives recognize this and are attempting to really design courses and experiences that don't have a "NO GURLZ ALLOWED" sign hanging out front.  A few of these initiatives even have funding this time, so there is hope there is more than lip service, which is what it mostly was when the traditional golfers were beating down the doors.

[Jon Wiggett]

It amazes me that a nationality that is usually so incredibly positive about most things in life seem to a man to be so unbelievably negative on anything to do with the the economy. Go to Greece if you want financial gloom or try North Korea for just a general downer on everything.

It aint that bad in the USA not even financially

Jon

[Shane Wright]

The golf design market is about as flat as a tee right now.....

Shane,

Tee It Forward, PGA 2.0 and other industry initiatives recognize this and are attempting to really design courses and experiences that don't have a "NO GURLZ ALLOWED" sign hanging out front.  A few of these initiatives even have funding this time, so there is hope there is more than lip service, which is what it mostly was when the traditional golfers were beating down the doors.

Jeff, I have read a little and will be watching closely as this initiative starts to take a little more form. I do not dispute the design business is flat (in the U.S.).  

But as for exisiting private clubs and their struggles, they also need to learn that it is momma that is deciding if her kids are playing.  Mom's don't care about cocktails and wine socials (for marketing purposes), they want to see how the club is going to have an impact on their children's life.  I would love to see the struggling private club do a better job of marketing to this.

[RJ_Daley]

Craig, in your review of that data, was there any suggestion as to what sector of the golfer consumer public saw the significant drop in rounds played since 2000?  If the drop in rounds played came from the sector that 'was' these courses that are folding, that sounds logical.  But, I also wonder if part of the drop in rounds comes from the lower to middle class income scale, where scarce jobs and wage suppression does not seem to be abating.  Also, it seems to me that we older folks entering or well into retirement years and pension income living, have been decimated by the case of the disappearing pension assets.  Aren't these older folks the hot golf market that provides a significant number of those rounds played and provide a significant underlying of the number of rounds played?  

I don't know if all or some of these factors are the driving cause of a collapse in the golf economy.  Probably, it is a catastrophic mix of all of the above.  I have a very strong opinion, and it is both political and economic as to what caused this collapse.  (I know that shocks you   )

The question is whether the golf industry and all the entities from archies and constructors, to B&I equipment manufacturers and sellers, to course management of the agronomic sector are going to have the unified wherewithall to get behind an effective socio/ecoomic plan to right the ship, or accept the status quo, pay lip service to what I think are rather superficial feel-good 'initiatives' (IMHO), or become seriously motivated to do something different than repeat the approaches of how we got here.  In the world of golf, from members and players to the commercial interests, they have a very ingrained mindset that don't seem to be working, nor a brighter horizon in any foreseeable future if status quo reigns.  

So, where is any renewed growth going to come from?  Not the vast working public-turned pensioners, who have been decimated, notwithstanding the tiny fraction of corp exec golden parachute recipients who walked off with those worker pension assets.  Not lower to middle class wage earners who continue to see wage-benefit suppression into a second-third decade or more.  Not any foreseeable re-ignition from those real estate-golf developments recovery of currently defunct or new investments (so most economic experts suggest).  And yet the top 5-10% on wealth scale of golfers have no problems and a crap load of enclaves of exclusivity and price is not much of an object for them to play their golf, and they don't seem to be sweating this situation too much.

No, actually I don't have many questions about the golf economy and its prospects to recover on a popular participatory economically growing scale, now that I think about it....  

[Mike_Young]

Just remember, those stats are for the golf economy in the U.S. It is a big world.

David,
Don't fall for that BS....it's a bigger bubble than the US bubble was....cheers..

[Tom_Doak]

I'm surprised that there were even 19 that opened in 2011. Are there any forecasts or guesses for 2012-13-14?

I'm surprised there were 19, too, since Ron Whitten spent the entire year trying to find new courses to review and only found 13.  The totals on new course openings have always been somewhat iffy.

Last time we tried to count the potential new openings for 2012, we only got up to 5 or 6 ... including a 13-hole par-3 course in Bandon, and the two 18's at Streamsong.

I should have one more for 2013, in Nebraska.  Everything else we've talked about is on another continent.

[Sean_A]

"According to the National Golf Foundation, there were 25.7 million golfers in America in 2011, down from a historic high of 30 million in 2005. Rounds played last year dropped to 463 million from 518 million in 2000. For the sixth year in a row, more golf courses in this country have closed than have opened (158 closures vs. 19 openings in 2011, according to the NGF). The frenzy of golf course construction from the mid-1980s through 2005 was primarily a real estate boom, not a golf boom."


I guess that answers the questions about the golf economy...

Actually, looking at the numbers

Actually, looking at the numbers, a drop of 11% of rounds and 14% of golfers (definition of golfer always strikes me as vague and too lenient) over 7 years ain't that bad when you consider the economic upheaval - I was surprised it wasn't much worse given all the doom and gloom talk of those in the industry.  This strikes me as plenty of time for clubs and owners to adjust for what is sure to be a similar pattern in the coming few years.  In other words, it means no more free lunches and living fat - sounds fair enough to me.

Ciao   

[Jud_T]

I still believe it can get better.  But golf, the USGA, golf courses, etc, better figure out a better way to market to mothers, women, and children, otherwise the game is not going to grow.  

Agreed.  Thank god we have Augusta National doing so much to help grow the game...

[jeffwarne]

I still believe it can get better.  But golf, the USGA, golf courses, etc, better figure out a better way to market to mothers, women, and children, otherwise the game is not going to grow.  

Agreed.  Thank god we have Augusta National doing so much to help grow the game...

I just had three kids knock on my door who haven't ever played golf wanting to know if my son wanted to go play golf with them.
It seems they watched the Masters on TV and got pretty excited about trying the game.
I had to go pull them off their third 9 to get them to come to baseball practice.
Seems they didn't care whether some wealthy female CEO with an occasional interest in golf got a green coat.
The true injustice would be granting a membership at Augusta to a nongolfer to satisfy a few tokenist Martha Burke busybodies with too much time on their hands.
I'm sure the real message we want to send our daughters is that they need to become CEOS so they can be accepted in the world.

The best run event in golf, where patrons (both live and TV viewers) are treated well and appreciated, as opposed to like captive audience cattle at other sporting events.
That could inspire a few and grow the game.
Did I mention their charitable and philanthropic work as well?
What's your club done lately for charity?

By the way these stats are from the NGF who led us down this path by preaching we needed to build a
"course a day" to keep up with the demand in the early-mid 90's, because they were seriously overstating/miscalculating demand
in search of members of their wonderful foundation.
So I put litltle faith in the accuracy of their numbers.
 

[Brent Hutto]

Yeah, the NGF should be legally required to include a disclaimer on the title page quoting Pogo

"We have met the enemy and he is US".

[Jud_T]

Jeff,

My club does plenty for charity.  Let me guess, those three kids were boys...

[Mark Bourgeois]

"The frenzy of golf course construction from the mid-1980s through 2005 was primarily a real estate boom, not a golf boom."

Any recovery in new courses will have to wait on a recovery in residential real estate. I don't see that happening any time soon.

Bob

Bob, I don't know about golf courses but the recovery in residential real estate might be sooner than you think.

[jeffwarne]

Jeff,

My club does plenty for charity.  Let me guess, those three kids were boys...

Good to hear, but frankly it's none of my business.

yes those three kids were boys......
and today there are six of them going (two of which are girls who heard about the golf during the nightly "manhunt" game-don't know if they watched The Masters or not)
I guess they should be playing "people hunt"

As an aside, we are very fortunate to have affordable golf($18 all day-$105 for a season pass) in our area given the demographic.
As another aside, 4 of the six,including my son, are leftys(setting up quite an equipment scramble for me)
 maybe it's just Bubba growing the game

[Jud_T]

It seems pretty obvious that aside from all the usual stuff about cost and time that getting women and girls on the course is the best thing we can possibly do for the golf economy.  Just look at this site, out of 1400 I think we have something like 2 (?) female posters.  

[Terry Lavin]

It seems pretty obvious that aside from all the usual stuff about cost and time that getting women and girls on the course is the best thing we can possibly do for the golf economy.  Just look at this site, out of 1400 I think we have something like 2 (?) female posters.  

Alternatively, it seems obvious that the prospects for growing the game by working the gender issue might be pointless. As a generalization, women might not be as willing to commit to this time-suck sport of ours.

[jeffwarne]

It seems pretty obvious that aside from all the usual stuff about cost and time that getting women and girls on the course is the best thing we can possibly do for the golf economy.  Just look at this site, out of 1400 I think we have something like 2 (?) female posters.  

Jud,
I'm all for women and golf.
I've got 2 daughters.
I'm in the golf business.
I'm just not sure we need to try to grow the game faster than the game can sustain them.
In the 90's/early 2000's we "grew the game" at an alarming pace driving up fees for everything, then we lost many of them when they found out golf was hard, not that cool, and expensive/recession.
Contraction is going on, the marginal business/operators won't survive.
that's probably not a bad thing as golf had way too much fluff fo a few years there.
I'd rather get more passionate, quality, dedicated,committed kids who either have or can learn good values, who learn to respect the game and all it can lead to, than the entire PE class.

[Jud_T]

Jeff,

Agreed.  We can start by making kid's tournaments fun instead of watching 10 year olds grind over 5-footers all weekend in stroke-play events so we can statistically get a jump on the college scholarship wannabe market...