Sometimes it's best to go back to the tee...

[Phil McDade]

Patrick:

I know that's a low spot on the course, but hadn't things dried out pretty much by then? He got a late tee time Sunday -- he's playing that hole well into the afternoon after two days of sunny and somewhat windy weather. I'd think he'd be OK there.

[Patrick_Mucci]

Phil,

I don't know.

That's a low area, prone to runoff, and close to the green which may have been irrigated the night before.

If the embedded ball rule was in effect, then, certainly, that option would appear to be more palatable.

[Joe Stansell]

Pat, wouldn't Rule 25-2 cover the issue? I'm assuming that the area fronting the green would be considered a "closely mown area" cut to "fairway height or less," although admittedly I've never seen the hole other than on television.

[Doug Siebert]

Phil,

Are you talking about using the Casper strategy from the start, or using it after taking an unplayable and going back to the tee?

If you're going to play for a 3.5, what's wrong with taking an extra club and playing over the bunker on the right?  If it comes off as planned you have a tough two putt but really can't do worse than a three putt.  If you mishit it and put it in the right bunker, well, that may not be an easy up and down, but its still possible and again you won't do worse than 4 from there...

I don't think Phil's ego would ever allow him to deliberately play away from a green in regulation unless conditions were quite extreme, but playing away from a pin, that's acceptable.

[Patrick_Mucci]

Doug,

In an interview Phil claimed that he was deliberately aiming away from the green and trying to cut the ball into the bunker or onto the front of the green.

If he was content with being in the left bunker, I can't see why he wouldn't be content in front of the green, in fact, the green is probably more receptive to a recovery from the front than it is the left bunker.

Perhaps he didn't consider that option.

Joe,

That would depend upon whether the ball embeded in a closely mown area.
I think the area short of the green is closely mown, but left of it might not be and he did say he was aiming left and trying to draw it back.

I think Phil might be right, that he just didn't think of the "Casper" strategy as a viable option.
In retrospect, that hole location seems the ideal hole location to invoke the "Casper" strategy.

[Phil McDade]

Phil,

Are you talking about using the Casper strategy from the start, or using it after taking an unplayable and going back to the tee?

If you're going to play for a 3.5, what's wrong with taking an extra club and playing over the bunker on the right?  If it comes off as planned you have a tough two putt but really can't do worse than a three putt.  If you mishit it and put it in the right bunker, well, that may not be an easy up and down, but its still possible and again you won't do worse than 4 from there...

I don't think Phil's ego would ever allow him to deliberately play away from a green in regulation unless conditions were quite extreme, but playing away from a pin, that's acceptable.

Doug:

Phil had to think, and admitted as much in an interview, that that particular pin position on Sunday was one he was most fearful of, among the ones played in the tournament. After all, he went 3-2-3 on #4 on the first three days of the tourney.

If that's the case, I'm not sure why he didn't play short, other than either: a) he didn't think of it; or b) he didn't want to appear like a wimp.

Two pieces of evidence:

Here are the Sunday pin positions, per Dan Herrmann's thread:



Here is a link (posted somewhere on GCA recently) of Kevin Streelman's yardage/guide book to the Masters; it's one long take, but check out the very specific diagram of the 4th green, which appears to have a fairly severe false front (the narrow "tongue" of the green), a relatively flat mid-section that tilts from right to left, and an upper shelf along the entire backside.

http://www.golfwrx.com/forums/topic/464463-kevin-streelmans-yardage-book-from-the-2011-masters/

Comparing the two (the Sunday pins, and Streelman's yardage book), it appears as if the Sunday pin for #4 was set just above the false front (looking at Streelman's book, the Sunday pin appears to be where the "7" is on the green diagram). My guess is that Mickelson was worried that landing a tee shot on the green to that pin would result in a downhill putt that risked rolling off the green. Streelman's book also suggests a severe falloff at the front of the green -- that is, the land fronting the green rises up to the false front. Video from the Masters website of Mickelson's play on Sunday on the 4th confirms this.

Given all that, it would seem the least troublesome place to put a shot -- given Mickelson's fear of that pin -- would be a simple shot to the lowest point of the area fronting the green, which would have left a very short and manageable uphill chip to a green that's not racing away from you -- in fact (given you're hitting into the false front), it's receptive.

[Mark Ringsmuth]

It would seem to me that anyone playing at the top of their game should continue to play in the manner that is most comfortable to them. Phil has supreme confidence in his ability to pull off tough shots (see the lob on 15 Saturday). Hacking out of the bushes was more comfortable under the pressure of the hunt than staring down the same shot he had just botched for a second time. Would the cautious play have been any better?  In hindsight, probably, but no one has mentioned the price paid for being cautious.

Oosthuizen lost the Masters by playing it safe on 10. He had been bombing it of the tee with the driver all day. He sees Bubba in the woods and decides to play it safe.  Three wood into the rough. Long iron for a second shot comes up short. Tournament over.

Be true to thine own self is how I see it, because if you don't pull off the shot - no matter what it is - you are going to get criticized.

[Phil McDade]

Would the cautious play have been any better?  In hindsight, probably, but no one has mentioned the price paid for being cautious.

...

Be true to thine own self is how I see it, because if you don't pull off the shot - no matter what it is - you are going to get criticized.

Mark:

Casper won a US Open playing it safe in 1959; betcha Phil would like one of those.

But Casper knew his strengths -- one of the best putters, ever, in the game -- and also knew the risks involved with WFoot's 10th hole (where bogey or worse is a real possibility with an errant tee shot) negated any thoughts about avoiding cautious play in a major.

In some ways, I think Mickelson does play cautiously at times at Augusta, although most wouldn't characterize it as such. He never lays up at 13 or 15, for instance, because (my assumption here, but watching the guy play numerous Masters gives one an indication of his thoughts) he has the length to clear all the trouble with his second shots, and his short game is so good that he can recover from any approach that doesn't find the green. I see that as playing to his strengths (length, short-game abilities).

His play on 15 Saturday is pretty indicative of this -- the pin that day was one you didn't want to shoot at with a long-iron, because a slight mis-hit either short or long or left would result in big trouble. Mickelson shot away from the pin -- toward the right side of the green -- and even though his approach didn't stay on the green, and he was left with a difficult chip, it was one he knew he could execute. That his third shot -- a flop shot toward a pond -- is a shot that maybe no one else even attempts (as Feherty said) doesn't necessarily make it a bad risk; it's one he's used to taking, and usually pulls off.

I get Mickelson wanting to avoid that pin on #4 with a shot at the green. I just don't get playing toward really big trouble when you're trying to avoid modest trouble, i.e, a bogey on the final round of a Masters you're in contention to win.

[jeffwarne]

Brian,

Van de Velde's meltdown occured on the last hole of the tournament, and he only needed a double bogey to win.

It was bad decision making at the highest level, horrendous.
He had completely missed the previous shot with a driver, teed up to produce the perfect lie.
A lay up, pitch to the green produces bogey and he wins by two shots.
Even with a three putt, he wins.

The worst decision on a final hole ...............ever.

Phil's dilema occured early in the final round.

And, given two choices, it's easy to second guess when you know the outcome of one of those choices.

Pat, I don't know. Jean had a good lie and he did what he needed to do - i.e. cleared the burn. He obviously knew that he could execute and so he did - who would have put the prospect of hitting a metal pole 30 yards clear of the burn as a possible variable to add into the thought making equation? As nervous as he was, he was probably afraid of hitting a lay up in the rough and causing himself problems - at least with the 2 iron he would be in rough near the green as opposed to rough well down the fairway. I think you're being harsh on him.

Re: Phil - the situations aren't identical - but noone can argue that really bad luck turned a 4 (possible 3) into a 6.

One of the things I've found is a ball strking a metal object is subject to less than predictable bounces.
He flew it into the "observation platform".
Phil said he hit the ball where he was aimimg .

Bubba flew it onto the green, obviously not a beneficiary of all the free advice Phil gives out to younger players.

No one has mentioned that it happened early in the round and that it's much easier to play when 4 shots back then when near the lead (even for Phil)
Who knows what would've happened if he had simply gotten the bogie you usually get when your ball goes into the "Observation platform" you're aimimg for.
Ifs and buts and should've, could've would'ves............

[Phil McDade]

Brian:

There is bad luck, and there is inviting bad luck, and I think Phil did the latter by playing toward the most trouble you can find on that hole. He's not exactly a guy unknown to hitting wildly off-line shots; maybe the thought of hitting toward a bunker, ending up in the grandstand, and getting a bad break didn't enter his mind. But, given his history with wildly off-line shots in crucial situations, maybe it should have.

One of the interesting things about Van de Velde is that the commentary at the time -- Strange most notably -- thought that his selection of driver off the tee at Carnoustie's 18th was wrong (I think Strange called it crazy.) I always thought that was a bit unfair -- Van de Velde drove the ball incredibly well that entire tournament -- one of the primary reasons he was leading by three after the 71st hole. But I do think you can criticize the 2nd shot with the long iron; he did have a good lie, but he also had @ 210 yards to the green, and 185 yds or so to clear the burn fronting the green. He could have easily -- with his lie -- hit wedge/wedge and been on the green in three, where even a three-putt wins by a stroke.

[Sean Remington (SBR)]

1.  Phil was wrong to play away from the green with the tee shot.   Why not play to the back of the green and two putt?
2.  Unless I missed it, Phil never fully examined his options for the unplayable drop.  He never took the driver out of the bag to measure.
3.  When "Bones" saw how fast Phil was moving he should have taken the bag and walked away from him out towards the approach.  After the Winged Foot experience Bones should have seen the look in Phils eyes and kept the clubs out of his hands until they had fully developed the plan.

[Phil McDade]

1.  Phil was wrong to play away from the green with the tee shot.   Why not play to the back of the green and two putt?

Sean:

Mickelson said in his post-round interview that hitting it on the green, with that pin, was a more difficult two putt than an up-and-down from left of the green. He said he practiced, frequently, playing from left of that green, presumably on the assumption he would see Sunday's pin sometime during the tournament. Looking at Streelman's yardage book linked to in this thread, hitting it to the back end of that green does look dicey -- much dicier than the Casper method of hitting in short and pitching-and-putting up to that pin.

[Sean Remington (SBR)]

Phil  -  I think he out smarted himself there.  The worst score he would make from the back of the green is 4.  Several other players actually made 3's from past the hole putting back down at it.  If you want to play short then play short and under the hole, again the worst he would make is 4.  He tried to hit the ball hole high and right into the bunker.  He never expected to hit the block and he didn't leave himself an out for that shot.  If your playing safe then PLAY SAFE!  It's all history now and we are free to speculate anyway we like.  But once the mistake was made I just wish Bones had slowed him down.

[Garland Bayley]

Don't know if anyone posted Dan Jenkins take on this.

"Phil is starting to make the 18th at Winged Foot look like solid course management."

[Phil McDade]

Sean:

I think we agree; Phil's thinking seemed to be: How can I manufacture a 3 with that pin? It probably should've been: Where can I -- at worst -- make a 4? I'd still argue for below the hole, at the very bottom of the gully leading up to the 4th green, as the easiest place to make a 3, and the least likely place to make a big number.

For the life of me, I can't figure out the relationship between Bones and Mickelson at times like this. There may not be a better caddie out there -- Mickelson said Bones keeps records of every shot, and every yardage and club for that shot, in every tournament he plays. He's been on his bag forever. He knows his tendencies better than Phil, probably. I agree -- at crucial moments, he seems to either not be involved, or ignored.

[Patrick_Mucci]

Pat, I don't know. Jean had a good lie and he did what he needed to do - i.e. cleared the burn. He obviously knew that he could execute and so he did - who would have put the prospect of hitting a metal pole 30 yards clear of the burn as a possible variable to add into the thought making equation? As nervous as he was, he was probably afraid of hitting a lay up in the rough and causing himself problems - at least with the 2 iron he would be in rough near the green as opposed to rough well down the fairway. I think you're being harsh on him.

Brian,

You're forgetting a critical fact.

Jean's tee shot was wildly off line, clearly indicating that he wasn't in possession of his "A" game on the 72nd hole.
And remember, he got to give himself the perfect lie on the tee.
He was lucky not to hit it into the berm off the tee.

Anyone who's played competitively, especially in medal play, knows when they're not in full control of their game.

When you consider what was needed to win the tournament, a double bogey, an uncontrolled wild tee shot, berms and OB ahead of you and plenty of safe areas to lay up to with a very short club, a prudent person in possession of his faculties, with an experienced caddy at his side ..... lays up.
They don't hit 1 or 2 irons into the Lion's den.

Re: Phil - the situations aren't identical - but noone can argue that really bad luck turned a 4 (possible 3) into a 6.

The bounce could have been worse, forcing him to go back to the tee hitting 3.

[Sean Remington (SBR)]

Sean:

I think we agree; Phil's thinking seemed to be: How can I manufacture a 3 with that pin? It probably should've been: Where can I -- at worst -- make a 4? I'd still argue for below the hole, at the very bottom of the gully leading up to the 4th green, as the easiest place to make a 3, and the least likely place to make a big number.

For the life of me, I can't figure out the relationship between Bones and Mickelson at times like this. There may not be a better caddie out there -- Mickelson said Bones keeps records of every shot, and every yardage and club for that shot, in every tournament he plays. He's been on his bag forever. He knows his tendencies better than Phil, probably. I agree -- at crucial moments, he seems to either not be involved, or ignored.

Phil - We do.  And you second paragraph is perfectly said.  I was so frusturated watching that yesterday.  I shouted at the TV, "Bones - take the clubs and run away from him".   I very happy that Bubba won but was hoping Phil would be a bigger factor at the end.  I knew that this was his undoing.