The Future of Golf?

[Ian Andrew]

I see maybe a return of the days of the Superintendent and Greens Committees handling the design and aspects of the build for any changes at their club.

Architect fees are expensive and with clubs looking to tighten up spending, I see this being an area where expenditure will no longer be directed.

There will always remain the need for reconstruction work on courses with agronomic issues and other factors such as realigning holes to limit balls hitting houses etc. It is going to be a hard sell to employ a consultant when budgets for this work are being limited.

I think with the information available today in terms of literature, television and the internet, it is much easier to research what makes for reasonable architecture. This coupled with a healthy dose of common sense will be able to achieve some fairly agreeable results that more than serve their purpose.

For many clubs built without the aid of a professional architect, it is a tough sell to convince people that where necessity and a can do attitude succeeded in the past that suddenly there exists the need to hire a name architect just to design one green.

Grant,

I’ve spent the last twenty years cleaning up after greens committees. What you suggest was common practice in the 1960’s and look at the damage that was done…..

Considering the irrigation on a green rebuild is 5x a typical architect’s fee and the mix alone is more than 10x – what are you saving by cutting out the architect – 5% at best.

[Grant Saunders]

Ian

I agree that it may not be a perfect situation and understand the problems in the past.

I just feel that the bar is going to be lowered in terms of what is required and the most basic of function is going to carry highest priority. ie does the green drain, does it have grass on it does it fulfill the goal of functioning as a golf hole etc. All the other stuff that an architect can provide like clever internal contours, maximising angles and differing pin placements that offer different strategies etc arent actually needed to play golf upon. The most basic of flat circular surfaces do allow golf to be played even if they arent as architecturally impressive.

Also, back in the 60's, there was far less exposure to great courses short of visiting or playing them in person. These days, many tour events are played at highly rated courses and google allows anyone to search and find hundreds of images of great courses. This website is a perfect example of a resource that can be used. Thousands of pages of insightful comments and analysis coupled with images of great architecture. And even a search function to help refine exactly what you are trying to find.

I feel that todays green committees and superintendents are far better placed to produce something of a far higher standard than what was achieved in the past. Having said that, I know that mistakes will still be made and perhaps in another 20 years yourself or some other architect will be charged with fixing these mistakes when golf is on the rise again and money isnt the issue it is today.

At the risk of contradicting myself, it is my belief that when money is short, this is when the architect or consultant has the most value as it ensures that what money is spent is done wisely. Unfortunately, I just dont foresee many clubs operating in this fashion and the goal will be to cut costs that appear unnecessary on paper.

I also see irrigation specs being wound back considerably and consultants in this field experiencing the same decline in work as golf architects.

[Philippe Binette]

golf, like most of the stuff in our world has been develop on an over consumption of ressources fueled up by a blindfolded marketing scheme that makes people believe that more is better...

so like the rest of our society we end up with big, long, fat and unsustainable "championship courses", when all the people really wanted is a fun place to knock the ball around for 4 hours.

society has to change and so are golf courses.

[paul cowley]

I agree Phillppe.....It's finding the right path that's the future

[Jud_T]

All the other stuff that an architect can provide like clever internal contours, maximising angles and differing pin placements that offer different strategies etc arent actually needed to play golf upon.

They are if you don't want your members to be bored sh*tless after 100 rounds.

[Niall C]

The days of if you build it they will come may be over for good.

Anthony:

I'm not sure those days ever really existed.  We built a lot of courses, and people didn't come to most of them, except for Sand Hills and Bandon Dunes Resort and maybe Barnbougle.  Nearly all the rest of the courses built on that business model have struggled.  Then again, nearly all the courses built on other business models have struggled, too.

Tom

Whats making them struggle ? Is it because there struggling to meet the payments on the set up costs or is it simply they can't even cover the basic running costs ?  I'm just wondering what will happen if these places go bust, will they work at the right price or are they just a dead loss even if the next guy picked them up for a dollar.

Niall

[Mac Plumart]

I see maybe a return of the days of the Superintendent and Greens Committees handling the design and aspects of the build for any changes at their club.

Architect fees are expensive and with clubs looking to tighten up spending, I see this being an area where expenditure will no longer be directed.

There will always remain the need for reconstruction work on courses with agronomic issues and other factors such as realigning holes to limit balls hitting houses etc. It is going to be a hard sell to employ a consultant when budgets for this work are being limited.

I think with the information available today in terms of literature, television and the internet, it is much easier to research what makes for reasonable architecture. This coupled with a healthy dose of common sense will be able to achieve some fairly agreeable results that more than serve their purpose.

For many clubs built without the aid of a professional architect, it is a tough sell to convince people that where necessity and a can do attitude succeeded in the past that suddenly there exists the need to hire a name architect just to design one green.

Grant,

I’ve spent the last twenty years cleaning up after greens committees. What you suggest was common practice in the 1960’s and look at the damage that was done…..

Considering the irrigation on a green rebuild is 5x a typical architect’s fee and the mix alone is more than 10x – what are you saving by cutting out the architect – 5% at best.

For what it is worth (which is probably not a lot), I could see this happening.  That is clubs cutting costs by doing it themselves.  No matter if that actually makes long-term sense or not.  Like many businesses I am seeing, they need to cuts costs now...while maintaining revenue.

This brings up two points, that may or may not add any value to this discussion...

#1--if I were an architect pitching on a rennovation, restoration, or a one-off piece of work at an existing club...I'd have strong examples to show of why a good architect adds value beyond their fee.  And I'd have examples of in-house work gone bad that ended up costing the club a ton more in the coming years.

#2--If, indeed, clubs turn in-house for their work...we just might have a re-visiting of a Dark Age like scenario in some of these golf courses.  This sets the table for another Golden Age/boom for architects when it is over.

Again, 2 cents for a golf architecture business dummy.

[Mac Plumart]

Golf Course Architect Y finds that their home market is slow and instead of waiting for their next client to come on board, they decided to built their own golf course...own it...operate it...build it...maintain it.  

Do you guys think you could be successful at that?

Mac:

If I were a little older, I would buy High Pointe and fix it up and operate it.  It wouldn't be a cash cow, but I think it would do okay, provided I didn't have to pay a ransom for it.

Starting from scratch would be MUCH more difficult.  Most new projects out of the ground are in the $6 million to $10 million range, and not many golf course architects have that kind of spare change lying around.  [Corollary:  any architect who ever did have that much money, did not spend their money on developing a golf course!] 

But Tom...neither do these analysts leaving their Wall Street firms to start businesses within the industry they cover. They have contacts and know the players.  They develop a business plan that is sound and find backers...maybe they contribute some capital, but it is their knowledge that is their value-add.

I debated going on and on with a business plan that I think would work and how much capital it would cost and how much ROI it would generate (which I think would be attractive to investors)...but I'll opt instead to shut up. 

[Ian Andrew]

What’s making them struggle ?

When you do a pro forma for a golf course you have to look at the following basics:

"paid" rounds
+food and beverage (not always a gain)
-expenses for the clubhouse
-the cost of maintenance
-the servicing cost on the debt of building the project
=the balance

I’ve selected round numbers for simplicity.

$100. green fee (average collected) x 20,000 rounds = $2,000,000.
Break even in the clubhouse and clubhouse costs
Maintenance = 1,000,000.

Land costs: 1,500,000.
Build: 4,000,000.
Servicing the site: 500,000
Modest Clubhouse: 3,000,000.
Grow in and equipment: 1,000,000.

Debt Load: 10,000,000. @ 5% (servicing the debt) = 500,000 per year
Let’s say a payment of $600,000.

$2,000,000.
-1,000,000.
-600,000.
=$400,000. per year

If overnight you struggle to get $75. you lose $100,000.
If your rounds remain at $100. but they drop to 15,000. you lose $100,000.

You can slide the numbers around a bit and raise and lower numbers to get some rough ideas, but I hope this makes it easier to understand why people have a tough go of it with new courses.

[Philippe Binette]

Ian,
if a modest clubhouse cost 3 millions $... it's desperate, might as well built a little 200 000$ house, 30 feet by 40 feet floor + equivalent basement and serve sandwiches...

the 2 800 000 $ capital investment plus its interest is a great way to go bankrupt

[Mac Plumart]

Ian,
if a modest clubhouse cost 3 millions $... it's desperate, might as well built a little 200 000$ house, 30 feet by 40 feet floor + equivalent basement and serve sandwiches...

the 2 800 000 $ capital investment plus its interest is a great way to go bankrupt

Perhaps this is the future of golf course/club design?

I think this is what Mike was getting at with his Accord/Lamborghini example.

If I'm doing my numbers right, Ian' example at 20,000 rounds at $100 is a 4% return.  Not bad at all.  Especially if you own all the land.  But let's tweak it and instead of paying $4,000,000 to build the course it is $2.5.  Now instead of $3,000,000 for a club house...it is $1,000,000.  How high can the return get? 

To me business 101 says, add revenue before expenses.  Hey wait...didn't Mr. Youngscap do this as well?

[Philippe Binette]

People got way too confortable playing golf:

- somebody taking the bag out of their car
- over-sophisticated meals
- carts
- hefty locker rooms...

I love the fact that when you finish your round at the Old Course... your clubhouse is the pub. unless you're a member of the clubs around... It is the private groups who built their own clubhouses, not the operations of the course

[Mac Plumart]

Hmmm...

Imbedded in that last post is a great idea.

[Adrian_Stiff]

Ian,
if a modest clubhouse cost 3 millions $... it's desperate, might as well built a little 200 000$ house, 30 feet by 40 feet floor + equivalent basement and serve sandwiches...

the 2 800 000 $ capital investment plus its interest is a great way to go bankrupt

Perhaps this is the future of golf course/club design?

I think this is what Mike was getting at with his Accord/Lamborghini example.

If I'm doing my numbers right, Ian' example at 20,000 rounds at $100 is a 4% return.  Not bad at all.  Especially if you own all the land.  But let's tweak it and instead of paying $4,000,000 to build the course it is $2.5.  Now instead of $3,000,000 for a club house...it is $1,000,000.  How high can the return get? 

To me business 101 says, add revenue before expenses.  Hey wait...didn't Mr. Youngscap do this as well?

THATS PRETTY MUCH WHAT I HAVE BEEN DOING FOR THE LAST 25 years... Probably up $20,000,000 so far

[Ronald Montesano]

PB, does that idea work throughout the isles and the mainland, or only in ST. A?

Mac, it is a great idea, but would it work stateside?

Agreed that we are too comfortable. The HS league in which I coach holds its league championship at a course without a clubhouse. The teams must pack up and move to a restaurant a few miles away for the banquet. As long as no one enables the kids, they don't know it's a big deal.

By offering comfort, did golf attract a bigger slice of the consumer pizza? Would some of the fatties and lazzies who currently ride the range, errr, fairways have taken the game up AND stuck with it if comfort were lessened/never advanced?

[Mac Plumart]

Mac, it is a great idea, but would it work stateside?

Who knows, we have to try it.  I think I could make it work...but are you seeing what I'm seeing in his post?

As far as the smaller club house/pure golf course working...hell, yes.  Think Palmetto, The Golf Club, maybe even Cypress Point (I haven't played it, but I think it is small clubhouse/golf club...not a country club).

[Tim Nugent]

It is always  interesting to me to see people in my industry (portfolio management and financial analysis) go to work within the industries they cover.  For instance, Analyst X covers real estate investment trusts for Morgan Stanley.  Analyst X leaves Morgan Stanley to start his/her own real estate company.  They use all the knowledge, contacts, and experience within the industry to start a company within the industry.  Many times they are very successful.

Any of y'all ever thought of that?

Golf Course Architect Y finds that their home market is slow and instead of waiting for their next client to come on board, they decided to built their own golf course...own it...operate it...build it...maintain it.  Do you guys think you could be successful at that?

Been there, done that.  Had the best client - we saw everything eye-to-eye   The biggest obsticle is finding the seed money.  We were able to "donate" our services to the project because we had our operational expenses "covered" with other jobs.  Now, without all those "other jobs" to pay the bills, where would the money come from just to get the idea to the Dirt Phase?  I don't think Unemployement Benefits would be enough to carry the load.

[Mac Plumart]

Tim...based on your post, we aren't talking the same thing.  

And, another add on thing...with all the negative talk and vibe on this thread, why in the world would anyone want to build a golf course in the first place?  In all seriousness, think about that and you guys responses in this thread.

[Mac Plumart]

Ian,
if a modest clubhouse cost 3 millions $... it's desperate, might as well built a little 200 000$ house, 30 feet by 40 feet floor + equivalent basement and serve sandwiches...

the 2 800 000 $ capital investment plus its interest is a great way to go bankrupt

Perhaps this is the future of golf course/club design?

I think this is what Mike was getting at with his Accord/Lamborghini example.

If I'm doing my numbers right, Ian' example at 20,000 rounds at $100 is a 4% return.  Not bad at all.  Especially if you own all the land.  But let's tweak it and instead of paying $4,000,000 to build the course it is $2.5.  Now instead of $3,000,000 for a club house...it is $1,000,000.  How high can the return get? 

To me business 101 says, add revenue before expenses.  Hey wait...didn't Mr. Youngscap do this as well?

THATS PRETTY MUCH WHAT I HAVE BEEN DOING FOR THE LAST 25 years... Probably up $20,000,000 so far

I'd be interested to hear more about this Adrian.  What do you mean with "Probably up $20,000,000 so far"

[Ian Andrew]

build the course it is $2.5.  

I haven't seen an irrigation system under $1,000,000. in a long, long time.

You'll have to ask Tom D or Mike Y if they can make your number work.
I'm not a golf course maker  
I only know what it costs to build a course using a contractor.

Now instead of $3,000,000 for a club house...it is $1,000,000.  

I worked on a Pro Shop project (with cart storage built underneath) recently and it was more than a million to get the building built "and furnished."

I was likely too high because there is a serviceable one up here done for 1.8 mill recently.

[Mac Plumart]

I've got to run...but here is what has served me well in life...take it or leave it...

Instead of saying X, Y, or Z is this way to do things, cost this much, has to be done this way...why not think, is there a better, cheaper, and/or more efficient way of doing things. 

The biggest/best business ideas have been status quo destroyers.  Bottled water?  Eh, that will never work...people can get that right from the tap for free.  It costs at least a million to build a cart barn?  Cart barn?  We don't need no stinkin' cart barn.  Online bookstores will never work, people like to browse through all the books and actually flip through the pages.  Good thing Bezos didn't think so.  Anyway, for real this time, I'll shut up and go Christmas shopping with my kids. 

[Adrian_Stiff]

You have to apply basic business principles if you are thinking of developing golf courses, it might sound very ABC but work out what you think the market will stand for a round of golf and work your sums backwards what you can afford to spend. Most people on here would bust the joint very quickly because they cant detach their minor opinons and develop for the masses.

1.Location is very important 2. Small parcel of land is very important 3. Carts are important 4. USGA greens are important 5. Water is important 6. Small clubhouse is important 7. A buisness designed to operate on a low staffing

If you want to work outside those points your project enters a danger zone.
1. Not enough people 2. Expensive to buy 3. They yield good inome 4. You wnt be near great soils, you need great greens. 5. Water is expensive you need a lake to irrigate frm, allow the design to recycle the water. 6 Clubhouses leak money make sure its a small hole. 7 Staff cost a lot of money, people dont play golf in the rain, the staff still want paying, keep it lean.

If you want a dream course, ignore this post. You will have a great time building it, you will then have one more great day and that will be the day you sell it.

[George Pazin]

Kinda depends on your perspective, I guess. There's more than a few mom and pop's around here that have "clubhouses" that couldn't possibly have cost more than 200K. And I'm willing to bet, in 20 years or so, they will cease to be golf courses and end up being housing developments, as the metro area expands. Although, with the no growth mode we're in, that may not happen for a lot longer, if ever.

Mac, have you ever done follow up to see if those analysts ended up succeeding? My gut tells me they wouldn't, they would lose to people who actually grew up in the industry, versus someone who analyzed it from the outside. But perhaps real estate and the financial industry are different.

[Ian Andrew]

I guess I should have made it clear that I threw the approvals process into both the clubhouse and golf course costs.

They are far higher than most would expect.


I was trying to keep the numbers round and uncomplicated for discussion.
I should have known better....

[George Pazin]

I guess I should have made it clear that I threw the approvals process into both the clubhouse and golf course costs.

They are far higher than most would expect.


I was trying to keep the numbers round and uncomplicated for discussion.
I should have known better....

It was good to put them in, you know far more than most of us. I would think it varies hugely from area to area. Once upon a time, I sent my college friends an email of my home and said this is what XXX in the Burgh will get you. My architect friend in CT said it wouldn't even get the permits to build the same house in CT.

The thing is, the areas where the land is expensive and the permitting difficult is also the areas where you may get top dollar for your green fees. There aren't many $100+ public courses around here, that's for sure. And the ones that are - such as Nemacolin - are usually empty when I've been there.

Tough industry, I wouldn't want to be involved, not in the business sense, anyway.