Are the Sand Hills over saturated with golf courses?

[PCCraig]

The Prarie Club, meant to be private, is public.
Dismal River was financially rescued by Chris Johnson and his group.
Ballyneal recently defaulted on its debt.

Is it just me, but have the Sand Hills become over saturated with golf courses? Is it possible that the area's golf bubble is bursting? Is it possible that there just aren't enough target golfers which fall into the niche of wanting to fly to Denver before driving multiple hours to a remote golf club on a regular basis?

Or is this all in line with the industry as a whole, where "the 2nd owner is usually the first to make money?"

I don't mean any disrespect to anyone who might be a member of a Sand Hills area club, but isn't it time to ask if the business model actually works?

[John Kavanaugh]

Ballyneal is not in the Sand Hills. The foreclosure has zero to do with location.

[Ben Sims]

Pat,

Hardly.  Imagine for one minute that the economy and subsequently, expendable income/lending for recreational purposes was where it was circa 1998.  What little golf is in the sand hills of Nebraska even now would be covered up.  Reservations for Prairie Club would be six-months in advance.  Waiting lists for BN and DR would be a few dozen deep.

At least that's my assertion.

[Tiger_Bernhardt]

Nope

[Brad Isaacs]

As told to George H W Bush, it's the economy, stupid.....

[Chris Johnston]

Like most everywhere, golf in the Sand Hills certainly has been impacted by the economy.  It's a buyers market and the days of high fees to join and very high dues are over.  Places that succeed need to offer a great experience at a good value.  We are fotunate at Dismal that is doesn't cost much to join and dues are favorable.  We could all use more members but the value equation must be there for the member.

There are some unbelievable opportunities today.  Dismal River costs less today than Sand Hills cost in 1995.  It's not a model, its the new normal. 

Its a great time to join a club, be it here or most anywhere.  It won't last forever but great opportunities are out there for those who want think long term.

I would love to see more working together by the clubs out here, but with recent events, that may take time.  How cool would it be to join one and have some access to several?  One membership/several clubs.  I like to believe anything that is good for all and good for the game is possible. 

[Mac Plumart]

I would love to see more working together by the clubs out here, but with recent events, that may take time.  How cool would it be to join one and have some access to several?  One membership/several clubs.  I like to believe anything that is good for all and good for the game is possible. 

I think that is the Grand Slam homerun.  Hopefully one day it will happen.

[John Kavanaugh]

I would love to see more working together by the clubs out here, but with recent events, that may take time.  How cool would it be to join one and have some access to several?  One membership/several clubs.  I like to believe anything that is good for all and good for the game is possible. 

I think that is the Grand Slam homerun.  Hopefully one day it will happen.

Personally, this means little to me. Going to Dismal, relaxing on property, and playing the 36 holes soon to be completed is more than enough.

[Andy Troeger]

.

[Michael George]

Pat:

I think avid golfers are always looking for unique golf experiences.  The sandhills of Nebraska and Colorado provide that.  There is definitely a unique spot for American golf in this region.

However, as a general rule, I would think most of these clubs are 2nd memberships.  Accordingly, they are going to be effected more by bad economic conditions than "home" clubs.  Anything that these clubs can do to bring value will help them.  

I think the answer to your question is whether the economic times of the 90's and 00's were a bubble or are likely to be returned to in the next several years.  Or at least we have seen the worst of these economic times.

Interesting historically to realize that possibly the 2 golden ages of golf course architecture were followed by really bad economic times that caused and will cause the closure of many great courses.

  

[PCCraig]

As told to George H W Bush, it's the economy, stupid.....

But what if it isn't?

That's just my point. What if it has less to do with the economy, and more to do with the fact that there are too many of the remote destination clubs and not enough of their target market golfers to go around? There are still plenty of people in the United States with enough cash to join 1st, 2nd, and 3rd clubs. Are we overestimating the general allure of the region to the average golfer and the sustainability of the business model? Would you put up $1MM of your own cash to help start a Sand Hills area club today?

Again, hopefully I'm not coming off as disrespectful, this is just a thought/talking point.

[John Kavanaugh]

Pat,

Could you list the courses you feel are in the "Sand Hills area" and how they hurt Ballyneal in attracting new members.  Have you ever been to the "Sand Hills area"?

Do you think it is stupid for Dismal to be building the Doak course?  I mean, why have 36 holes when you can just jump in your car and go play another course in the "Sand Hills area"...Maybe catch a Rockies game that night.

Do you think Charles Schwab was an idiot for building Nania?

[Jud_T]

I don't think it's oversaturated, but I do think it's a different segment of the National Membership model.  There are clubs like Hidden Creek, Old Sandwich, Kingsley etc.  that many in major metro areas can drive to for a weekend versus a more extended stay/trip to the Sand Hills.  In fact, as Chris implies, I think the more the merrier in the Sand Hills as it then becomes a destination golf trip for many in addition to the core members.

[Jim Nugent]

Interesting historically to realize that possibly the 2 golden ages of golf course architecture were followed by really bad economic times that caused and will cause the closure of many great courses.

  

That's because bubbles led to the boom times.  When the bubble bursts, as it always does, the great liquidations follow. 

fwiw, I believe we will see lots more golf course bankruptcies.  i.e. I definitely believe the Sand Hills is over-saturated. 

[John Kavanaugh]

I don't think it's oversaturated, but I do think it's a different segment of the National Membership model.  There are clubs like Hidden Creek, Old Sandwich, Kingsley, Stone Eagle (?) etc.  that many in major metro areas can drive to for a weekend versus a more extended stay/trip to the Sand Hills.  In fact, as Chris implies, I think the more the merrier in the Sand Hills as it then becomes a destination golf trip for many in addition to the core members.

Yes, even Ballyneal was a tweener course in that it was too close to Denver to truly feel remote.  There is a sense of adventure at Dismal and Sand Hills that is not felt at the tweener clubs.  You literally put your life in your own hands when you visit such remote locals.  

Too many of these clubs are like hunting elephants in Arkansas. The Sand Hills are not saturated, the make believe "Sand Hills area" is.

[Peter Pallotta]

"Too many of these clubs are like hunting elephants in Arkansas."

Ha - or like playing a golf course architect on TV; George Clooney dressed like Mike Young via Perry Ellis, staring at a topo map and pointing off into the distance, with a Charlie Rymer-type standing nearby reverently gazing in the same direction. 

[Jud_T]

"Too many of these clubs are like hunting elephants in Arkansas."
 

Beats hunting road-kill in Outer Mongolia...

[Jim Colton]

I don't think it's oversaturated, but I do think it's a different segment of the National Membership model.  There are clubs like Hidden Creek, Old Sandwich, Kingsley etc.  that many in major metro areas can drive to for a weekend versus a more extended stay/trip to the Sand Hills.  In fact, as Chris implies, I think the more the merrier in the Sand Hills as it then becomes a destination golf trip for many in addition to the core members.

Jud, I really like Kingsley and it's probably a close competitor for membership dollars to Ballyneal for a Chicago guy. The interesting thing is if I leave my house at 5 am, I can be on the first tee at Ballyneal at about 10:45 or the first tee at Kingsley at about 11:00. Both offer the chance to get 45+ holes in on the arrival and getaway days, which is a big plus when you only have so many days to dedicate to golf per year.

[Jud_T]

Certainly not knocking Ballyneal, I love the place, but if one flies to Traverse City, you can get 108 in...

[Tom ORourke]

Even if the answer is no, they may struggle for a good while. I think most of it is the economy. Another factor is the availability of a number of new and different courses as some planned private courses (i.e. Dormie) go public. Also, I belong to a club managed by Clubcorp. I have access to all of their clubs for the price of a cart or caddy. We have guys go to Palm Springs to play Indian Wells, Mission Hills, Rancho Las Palmas, and Desert Falls as they are free. There are other management firms with similar deals. I know Indian Wells is not Ballyneal or Dismal, but the point is that I don't need to join these courses to play them. With greens fees going down at some high end public courses, "guy group" areas like Pinehurst and Myrtle Beach etc., new public venues, there are enough targets for 98% of the market of members looking to play other places. And I doubt things are going to get better for quite a while. I think the target group for these courses was fairly small, and is not getting larger. And I believe there are people who might have joined a few years ago holding out as they can still find decent destinations at a legitimate price.

[JC Jones]

I would love to see more working together by the clubs out here, but with recent events, that may take time.  How cool would it be to join one and have some access to several?  One membership/several clubs.  I like to believe anything that is good for all and good for the game is possible. 

I think that is the Grand Slam homerun.  Hopefully one day it will happen.

Personally, this means little to me. Going to Dismal, relaxing on property, and playing the 36 holes soon to be completed is more than enough.

I agree with JK.  What I'd be looking for is somewhere to go and not leave.  I'll leave the driving from course to course to you bed post notchers out there  

[Jud_T]

Even if the answer is no, they may struggle for a good while. I think most of it is the economy. Another factor is the availability of a number of new and different courses as some planned private courses (i.e. Dormie) go public. Also, I belong to a club managed by Clubcorp. I have access to all of their clubs for the price of a cart or caddy. We have guys go to Palm Springs to play Indian Wells, Mission Hills, Rancho Las Palmas, and Desert Falls as they are free. There are other management firms with similar deals. I know Indian Wells is not Ballyneal or Dismal, but the point is that I don't need to join these courses to play them. With greens fees going down at some high end public courses, "guy group" areas like Pinehurst and Myrtle Beach etc., new public venues, there are enough targets for 98% of the market of members looking to play other places. And I doubt things are going to get better for quite a while. I think the target group for these courses was fairly small, and is not getting larger. And I believe there are people who might have joined a few years ago holding out as they can still find decent destinations at a legitimate price.

Tom,

While this is certainly true you have to compare apples to apples.  Essentially one can have a national membership at a phenomenal golf course and a private club experience several times a year for the price of one trip to Bandon or GB&I.  Pretty good value in my book..

[John Kavanaugh]

How are things going at The Outpost Club?  I was happy to see a picture of Victoria National on their home page. 

I'm a member of a ton of these reciprocal membership organizations and can promise you that it ain't the same as being a core member.  One of them is the PGA Tour Club which gives me rights at Sage Valley.  Maybe this winter.  I don't know what it is but I just don't feel "at home" during a reciprocal. 

[Mac Plumart]

How are things going at The Outpost Club?  I was happy to see a picture of Victoria National on their home page. 

I'm a member of a ton of these reciprocal membership organizations and can promise you that it ain't the same as being a core member.  One of them is the PGA Tour Club which gives me rights at Sage Valley.  Maybe this winter.  I don't know what it is but I just don't feel "at home" during a reciprocal. 

I agree 100% with that.  I want to feel at home when I'm at my club.

[Mike_Young]

Peter,
George Clooney wishes

Pat,
With all due respect to the Sand Hills most would consider it saturated in my opinion.  BUT, golf is saturated all over.  We always hear the expression that a business needs three things to make it: location, location and location.  Well with a golf course the great ones seem to always have the great physical locations which allow for a great course to be built.  Sand Hills has that.  And because of great sites for golf it is just a given that the course can be built for much less money than one that is built on ground that had to have massive preparations.  Sand Hills has that.  AND ideally you would like to be located near a population that uses your services.  Sand Hills doesn't have that.  We all know that golf rounds are down again this year so when these various sources come to clubs and tell them they can bring in more rounds, they are just racing to the bottom.  The Sand Hills courses are not in a rounds race.  It seems to me the Sand Hills course would be in an expense race.  Golf perpetuates golf.  Especially if it is good golf.  So if the owners are astute ( and I'm sure they are) then there will be successful golf ventures in the Sand Hills but I see it working because of managing the expense side much moreso than generating large numbers of golfers .  JMO