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JC Jones

  • Karma: +0/-0
The Wisdom of the Crowds - Golf Rankings
« on: August 16, 2011, 10:31:34 AM »
For those of you not familiar with the Wisdom of the Crowds theory, see here:  http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Wisdom_of_Crowds

Are the four factors necessary for "wise crowd" present in the current magazine ranking system?

Does the discarding of outliers, although statistically relevant, negatively or positively affect the wisdom of the crowd?
I get it, you are mad at the world because you are an adult caddie and few people take you seriously.

Excellent spellers usually lack any vision or common sense.

I know plenty of courses that are in the red, and they are killing it.

Tom_Doak

  • Karma: +2/-1
Re: The Wisdom of the Crowds - Golf Rankings
« Reply #1 on: August 16, 2011, 10:53:42 AM »
Failures of crowd intelligence -- stolen straight from Wikipedia, bold face is mine:

Surowiecki studies situations (such as rational bubbles) in which the crowd produces very bad judgment, and argues that in these types of situations their cognition or cooperation failed because (in one way or another) the members of the crowd were too conscious of the opinions of others and began to emulate each other and conform rather than think differently. Although he gives experimental details of crowds collectively swayed by a persuasive speaker, he says that the main reason that groups of people intellectually conform is that the system for making decisions has a systematic flaw.

Surowiecki asserts that what happens when the decision making environment is not set up to accept the crowd, is that the benefits of individual judgments and private information are lost and that the crowd can only do as well as its smartest member, rather than perform better (as he shows is otherwise possible). Detailed case histories of such failures include:

Homogeneity    Surowiecki stresses the need for diversity within a crowd to ensure enough variance in approach, thought process, and private information.

Centralization    The Columbia shuttle disaster, which he blames on a hierarchical NASA management bureaucracy that was totally closed to the wisdom of low-level engineers.

Division    The United States Intelligence Community, the 9/11 Commission Report claims, failed to prevent the 11 September 2001 attacks partly because information held by one subdivision was not accessible by another. Surowiecki's argument is that crowds (of intelligence analysts in this case) work best when they choose for themselves what to work on and what information they need. (He cites the SARS-virus isolation as an example in which the free flow of data enabled laboratories around the world to coordinate research without a central point of control.)

Imitation    Where choices are visible and made in sequence, [ie Best New Awards] an "information cascade"[3] can form in which only the first few decision makers gain anything by contemplating the choices available: once past decisions have become sufficiently informative, it pays for later decision makers to simply copy those around them. This can lead to fragile social outcomes.

Emotionality    Emotional factors, such as a feeling of belonging, can lead to peer pressure, herd instinct, and in extreme cases collective hysteria.



Of course, a defense of the accuracy of crowd-sourced information promoted by Wikipedia could be accused of having its own bias.  ;)

Eric Smith

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: The Wisdom of the Crowds - Golf Rankings
« Reply #2 on: August 16, 2011, 10:57:41 AM »
Always causing us to THINK, Tom. Thank you for your participation on here.

David Cronheim

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: The Wisdom of the Crowds - Golf Rankings
« Reply #3 on: August 16, 2011, 10:59:38 AM »
Always causing us to THINK, Tom. Thank you for your participation on here.

Couldn't agree more.
Check out my golf law blog - Tee, Esq.

Peter Pallotta

Re: The Wisdom of the Crowds - Golf Rankings
« Reply #4 on: August 16, 2011, 11:09:29 AM »
JC - the old Fran Leibowitz joke: Original thought is like original sin - both happened a very long time ago to people you couldn't possibly have met.

Peter

Mike_Young

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: The Wisdom of the Crowds - Golf Rankings
« Reply #5 on: August 16, 2011, 11:18:06 AM »
JC - the old Fran Leibowitz joke: Original thought is like original sin - both happened a very long time ago to people you couldn't possibly have met.

Peter

Peter,
The roommate to Fran Leibowitz who went out with Otter that nite and was at the table when the guy came up and said "we wants to dance with you dates" while Otis Day and the Nights were singing.  Well , she was married to a friend of mine....rememebr?  It was the night after Fran had died.
"just standing on a corner in Winslow Arizona"

Mark Bourgeois

Re: The Wisdom of the Crowds - Golf Rankings
« Reply #6 on: August 16, 2011, 11:29:32 AM »
Mike, wasn't her roommate Emily Litella?

Sven Nilsen

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: The Wisdom of the Crowds - Golf Rankings
« Reply #7 on: August 16, 2011, 11:34:54 AM »
JC - the old Fran Leibowitz joke: Original thought is like original sin - both happened a very long time ago to people you couldn't possibly have met.

Peter

Peter,
The roommate to Fran Leibowitz who went out with Otter that nite and was at the table when the guy came up and said "we wants to dance with you dates" while Otis Day and the Nights were singing.  Well , she was married to a friend of mine....rememebr?  It was the night after Fran had died.

"Do you mind if we dance with your dates."  [No question mark since it obviously wasn't a question.]

If you're going to quote one of the best lines in comedic history, at least get it right.
"As much as we have learned about the history of golf architecture in the last ten plus years, I'm convinced we have only scratched the surface."  A GCA Poster

"There's the golf hole; play it any way you please." Donald Ross

Mike_Young

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: The Wisdom of the Crowds - Golf Rankings
« Reply #8 on: August 16, 2011, 11:40:00 AM »
JC - the old Fran Leibowitz joke: Original thought is like original sin - both happened a very long time ago to people you couldn't possibly have met.

Peter

Peter,
The roommate to Fran Leibowitz who went out with Otter that nite and was at the table when the guy came up and said "we wants to dance with you dates" while Otis Day and the Nights were singing.  Well , she was married to a friend of mine....rememebr?  It was the night after Fran had died.

"Do you mind if we dance with your dates."  [No question mark since it obviously wasn't a question.]

If you're going to quote one of the best lines in comedic history, at least get it right.

oops...sorry.

Mark,
That wasn't here real name. ;D
"just standing on a corner in Winslow Arizona"

Jud_T

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: The Wisdom of the Crowds - Golf Rankings
« Reply #9 on: August 16, 2011, 11:49:53 AM »
Seems to me it's very difficult to get a group made up of a bunch of independent thinkers with enough experience who don't care what anyone else thinks.  Goes for the Confidential Guide argument over the mean consensus...
Golf is a game. We play it. Somewhere along the way we took the fun out of it and charged a premium to be punished.- - Ron Sirak

JMEvensky

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: The Wisdom of the Crowds - Golf Rankings
« Reply #10 on: August 16, 2011, 11:57:21 AM »
JC - the old Fran Leibowitz joke: Original thought is like original sin - both happened a very long time ago to people you couldn't possibly have met.

Peter

Peter,
The roommate to Fran Leibowitz who went out with Otter that nite and was at the table when the guy came up and said "we wants to dance with you dates" while Otis Day and the Nights were singing.  Well , she was married to a friend of mine....rememebr?  It was the night after Fran had died.

"Do you mind if we dance with your dates."  [No question mark since it obviously wasn't a question.]

If you're going to quote one of the best lines in comedic history, at least get it right.

+1000--absolutely one of the great lines.

David Harshbarger

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: The Wisdom of the Crowds - Golf Rankings
« Reply #11 on: August 16, 2011, 12:10:41 PM »
Seems to me it's very difficult to get a group made up of a bunch of independent thinkers with enough experience who don't care what anyone else thinks.  Goes for the Confidential Guide argument over the mean consensus...

This is more of an issue with the systems (magazine ratings based on invited raters) than the nature of the problem. The system violates decentralization, diversity, and to some extent the corruption of early info.  Surely a different system could be devised to address these shortcomings, or use them to reinforce other biases.
The trouble with modern equipment and distance—and I don't see anyone pointing this out—is that it robs from the player's experience. - Mickey Wright

Roger Wolfe

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: The Wisdom of the Crowds - Golf Rankings
« Reply #12 on: August 16, 2011, 12:53:29 PM »
This thread should be required reading for all club boards and greens committees.  Very, very good.

Bruce Wellmon

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: The Wisdom of the Crowds - Golf Rankings
« Reply #13 on: August 16, 2011, 01:06:52 PM »
[quote author=Mike_Young

Peter,
The roommate to Fran Leibowitz who went out with Otter that nite and was at the table when the guy came up and said "we wants to dance with you dates" while Otis Day and the Nights were singing.  Well , she was married to a friend of mine....rememebr?  It was the night after Fran had died.
[/quote]
 
 Was it Otis Day and the knights? Or nights?
This is important stuff.
" you know you make me want to shout."
"we were just.............leaving."
"foodfight!"
"no more fun of anykind."
"mine's bigger."
"Christ 7 years of college down the drain."
I did like that movie.

Joe_Tucholski

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: The Wisdom of the Crowds - Golf Rankings
« Reply #14 on: August 16, 2011, 01:23:03 PM »
As the 12th poster I'll be the first to answer the question.

No I don't think the four factors necessary for wise crowds are present in the big magazine ranking system.  I don't think the decentralization factor is met.  I would assume the magazines want to avoid specialization in a particular area.  A ranking system that may meet all four factors is http://www.golflink.com/top-golf-courses/.  It is clear the metropolitan public golfer brings their local knowledge to the detriment of the list.

In the case of discarding outliers for golf course rankings I think it positively affects the wisdom of the crowd with regards to what the magazines consider wise.

I think the theory is missing the most important piece to make a wise crowd.  The crowd needs to be knowledgeable pertaining to the topic being evaluated.

Mike Hendren

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: The Wisdom of the Crowds - Golf Rankings
« Reply #15 on: August 16, 2011, 01:31:16 PM »
It was FAWN Leibowitz who died in the kiln explosion.

And Daniel Simpson Day has no grade point average!
Two Corinthians walk into a bar ....

Billsteele

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: The Wisdom of the Crowds - Golf Rankings
« Reply #16 on: August 16, 2011, 01:51:26 PM »
Mike Young-Referring to Fawn Lebowitz as "Fran Leibowitz" is akin to referring to Tillinghast as "Tinglehast."

Greg Tallman

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: The Wisdom of the Crowds - Golf Rankings
« Reply #17 on: August 16, 2011, 02:00:15 PM »
Tom,

What was the GOLF policy on outliers when you were running the panel? Today?

David Harshbarger

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: The Wisdom of the Crowds - Golf Rankings
« Reply #18 on: August 16, 2011, 02:04:27 PM »
Individual contributions to an aggregate crowd perspective are directly influenced by the reward system underlying the contributions.  In financial markets, for instance, you put your money where your mouth is, and the collective view of varying and contrary opinions arrives at the crowd-sourced pricing of securities.  

Specifically, there's great potential value to being a contrarian in cases where independent actors with local knowledge have reason to behave contrary to the crowd.

If you look at the reward system for magazine rating, there doesn't appear to be any significant benefit to buck the consensus, and significant downside for the same.  Effectively, this disincentives indepedent, contrary contributions.

The rating system that places Jefferson park as the countries 3rd best course, while interesting, probably isn't the alternative, either.

Interestingly, horse race betting markets are a great example of the wisdom of crowds, as the collective estimation of the odds, as derived by the pubic, has been shown to be the best predictor of actual odds of any measure.
The trouble with modern equipment and distance—and I don't see anyone pointing this out—is that it robs from the player's experience. - Mickey Wright

Greg Tallman

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: The Wisdom of the Crowds - Golf Rankings
« Reply #19 on: August 16, 2011, 02:19:15 PM »
Individual contributions to an aggregate crowd perspective are directly influenced by the reward system underlying the contributions.  In financial markets, for instance, you put your money where your mouth is, and the collective view of varying and contrary opinions arrives at the crowd-sourced pricing of securities.  

Specifically, there's great potential value to being a contrarian in cases where independent actors with local knowledge have reason to behave contrary to the crowd.

If you look at the reward system for magazine rating, there doesn't appear to be any significant benefit to buck the consensus, and significant downside for the same.  Effectively, this disincentives indepedent, contrary contributions.

The rating system that places Jefferson park as the countries 3rd best course, while interesting, probably isn't the alternative, either.

Interestingly, horse race betting markets are a great example of the wisdom of crowds, as the collective estimation of the odds, as derived by the pubic, has been shown to be the best predictor of actual odds of any measure.

Too  much "expert" influnece on the horse racing odds to be labeled "derived by the public".

Anthony Gray

Re: The Wisdom of the Crowds - Golf Rankings
« Reply #20 on: August 16, 2011, 02:45:55 PM »
Individual contributions to an aggregate crowd perspective are directly influenced by the reward system underlying the contributions.  In financial markets, for instance, you put your money where your mouth is, and the collective view of varying and contrary opinions arrives at the crowd-sourced pricing of securities.  

Specifically, there's great potential value to being a contrarian in cases where independent actors with local knowledge have reason to behave contrary to the crowd.

If you look at the reward system for magazine rating, there doesn't appear to be any significant benefit to buck the consensus, and significant downside for the same.  Effectively, this disincentives indepedent, contrary contributions.

The rating system that places Jefferson park as the countries 3rd best course, while interesting, probably isn't the alternative, either.

Interestingly, horse race betting markets are a great example of the wisdom of crowds, as the collective estimation of the odds, as derived by the pubic, has been shown to be the best predictor of actual odds of any measure.

Too  much "expert" influnece on the horse racing odds to be labeled "derived by the public".

  My uncle was an expert at picking horses until the bottle got to him. His favorite golf course was Bell Meadows.

  Anthony


Greg Tallman

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: The Wisdom of the Crowds - Golf Rankings
« Reply #21 on: August 16, 2011, 03:05:13 PM »
Individual contributions to an aggregate crowd perspective are directly influenced by the reward system underlying the contributions.  In financial markets, for instance, you put your money where your mouth is, and the collective view of varying and contrary opinions arrives at the crowd-sourced pricing of securities.  

Specifically, there's great potential value to being a contrarian in cases where independent actors with local knowledge have reason to behave contrary to the crowd.

If you look at the reward system for magazine rating, there doesn't appear to be any significant benefit to buck the consensus, and significant downside for the same.  Effectively, this disincentives indepedent, contrary contributions.

The rating system that places Jefferson park as the countries 3rd best course, while interesting, probably isn't the alternative, either.

Interestingly, horse race betting markets are a great example of the wisdom of crowds, as the collective estimation of the odds, as derived by the pubic, has been shown to be the best predictor of actual odds of any measure.

Too  much "expert" influnece on the horse racing odds to be labeled "derived by the public".

  My uncle was an expert at picking horses until the bottle got to him. His favorite golf course was Bell Meadows.

  Anthony



Not a bad track and could have been really good given the terrain and stream meandering through it... #10 is a very good hole.

Greg Tallman

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: The Wisdom of the Crowds - Golf Rankings
« Reply #22 on: August 16, 2011, 03:13:50 PM »
Tom Doak,

What would your ideal panel look like?

How many?

What regions represented? How many from each? Proportional to candidate courses or does that matter?

How many women? Separate ranking altogether?

Mathematical formula? Outliers?

Same groupings as GOLF 1-3; 4-10... etc?

Term limits?

Internal Communication? Summits?

Weighted votes for recent plays? Minimum time for last played (can only vote on courses played in the last XX years)?

New course "maturation period" (must be open for X years to be eligible)?

Skill requirement of panelists? Sub 15? Any?
« Last Edit: August 16, 2011, 03:18:33 PM by Greg Tallman »

Tom_Doak

  • Karma: +2/-1
Re: The Wisdom of the Crowds - Golf Rankings
« Reply #23 on: August 16, 2011, 03:15:03 PM »
Tom,

What was the GOLF policy on outliers when you were running the panel? Today?

Greg:

We didn't have a policy -- which means, I never considered throwing out anyone's vote.  Of course, in those days we only had about 60 people on the committee, and they were all people whose opinions we respected.  That's really the problem now ... in expanding the committees in order to pretend that the greater amount of "data" makes the system more objective, all the magazines have instead started relying on people they don't really know [or trust].

Greg Tallman

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: The Wisdom of the Crowds - Golf Rankings
« Reply #24 on: August 16, 2011, 03:19:27 PM »
Tom,

What was the GOLF policy on outliers when you were running the panel? Today?

Greg:

We didn't have a policy -- which means, I never considered throwing out anyone's vote.  Of course, in those days we only had about 60 people on the committee, and they were all people whose opinions we respected.  That's really the problem now ... in expanding the committees in order to pretend that the greater amount of "data" makes the system more objective, all the magazines have instead started relying on people they don't really know [or trust].

It's not as though GOLF has thousands like the others. Around 100 if I am not mistaken... manageable.

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