My teaching pro buddy told me several years ago, when I first started getting into paying attention to GCA and traveling around to play interesting courses, that as far as he could see there was no growth potential, long-term, in higher end and championship courses. That kind of course was overbuilt and over-expensive even in the late 90's. At least in this part of the world (Southeaster USA).
He said the only remaining area for growth was courses with compact layouts, minimal rough and hazards, more like 6,000 yards than 7,000 and rough-and-ready irrigation and maintenance practices. The kind of place someone who hits the ball short and crooked can still have a Nassau with his buddies for a $30 green fee and be back at the snack bar drinking beer four hours later. The kind of place you can just go out any time you feel like hacking it around for an afternoon without it being a big, expensive production.
I think there will always be a market, perhaps not a big growth market but still a lot of rounds, for that version of "golf" without all the rigmarole that the business has encrusted itself with over the past 30-40 years. The problem being, in most areas, where are you going to find affordable land for even a short, compact course that's within easy driving distance of a few hundred potential customers. Most likely it will have to be redevelopment or revitalization of property already being used for golf, don't you think?
Is there any chance the 2010's or 2020's will see a bunch of defunct or nearly so Country Clubs, CCFAD's and "High-End Golf Communities" be re-purposed into shorter, scruffier, easier, lower-input, maintainable courses? I wonder how those home owners whose houses are built around lush, wall-to-wall green walking dead courses would feel about it becoming a $30 public course rather than more houses or (God forbid) apartments?
I can't recall the name of it but as you're passing through Bluffton on the main road out to the Island there's a course right on the highway there to the right. Maybe "Rose Hill" or something like that? Apparently that sort of thing happened to it a few years ago, right? The property owners didn't want the course to go away but the operators went bankrupt. So it now has a sign facing the road saying something like "PUBLIC WELCOME...$37 INCLUDES FREE DOZEN NIKE GOLF BALLS". Is that the future of a couple thousand housing-development courses nationwide?