If the current economic environment continues, will

[Craig Sweet]

Fuel costs have risen much faster than my wages at the golf course. So right now, I'm something of a bargin. 

This year we want to walk mow and "square up" our tees and I can see the trade off being we lose the first cut of rough and some specialized mowing we do around th club house. Two years ago we eliminated four bunkers that never really impacted play as a very minor time and cost savings, but the membership had us put them back in last summer, and enlarge them!

It also looks as if we are no longer going to mow our fairways on the weekends...we did this last year toward the end of the season and no one complained. So yeah, the economic situation has altered our maintinence practices some as we struggle to provide the conditions our members want with the budget they give us.

[Mike_Young]

As you can see from the graph (share of the total income by top 1%), the top 1% earners in US have been earning more and more since the mid-80's.



You and I may not know these folks, but they are there and doing better and better every year.

So looking at the chart...
were we better off in 1973?
because it didn't feel that way
doesn't the rise in their wealth correspond with the ENTIRE economy improving beginning around 1982

I think most would be better off ( economically) by trying to find a way to join the 1%, rather than trying to trying to think of ways for the 1% join the rest of us

Well Jeff, even in the hard times of 1973 I don't think the future looked nearly as bleak for factory workers and other non-skilled workers as it does today and it doesn't matter a damn about training because there just aren't enough decent jobs to support the population.  Its a sort of musical chairs except for some people are already sitting down.  Shit, I think we can safely say on a whole, the future has never looked less bleak for the have nots in the US.  There is no question there has been an absolute failure on the part of my generation and the previous baby boomer generation to look to the long term future of the US and for the first time our children cannot expect to do better than we did.  We must remember that a lot of wealth has stayed in wealthy hands because we have neglected the future and imo the onus is on the wealthy to change this trend because bad luck can knock on any door. This is in no way a condemnation of capitalism, just a stark look at reality and a reality that doesn't necessarily have to remain the way it is.  Before you retort, I don't know how the wealthy improve things, but I know they are the only ones who can.

I don't know whether or not the current climate will cause it, but cost to maintain features should always be a consideration of design.  

Ciao  

Sean,
IMHO the wealthy are the way out but our industries have to balance people and jobs with efficiencies brought on in the last 15 years....that brings jobs back....
If I have a 72 inch rough mower in Latin America..the workers don't want it...because it takes three or four jobs away and in reality they can perform the job as quickly and at close to the same cost doing it their way....same for quick coupler irrigation vs computerized....
We have sort fo shot ourselves in the foot in our quest for efficiencies and lower cost....
Personally I would like to take our chances with no imports or exports...and manufacturing in this country....cheers...

[Jud_T]

Personally I would like to take our chances with no imports or exports...and manufacturing in this country....cheers...

Mike,

Seriously?  How do you feel about immigration?

Richard,

As to the above graph, if you had it drawn out till today, I think you'd find that it peaked around 2006/2007 and has headed sharply lower.  How's that working out for 'ya?

[Greg Tallman]

Personally I would like to take our chances with no imports or exports...and manufacturing in this country....cheers...

Seriously?  How do you feel about immigration?

Personally I am all for it, I hope they let me back in after a couple of decades away. Sneaking across the border has been tough for the last 10 years. My swimming has improved dramatically however.

[David_Tepper]

"I know a good number of rich people, and NONE of them are making more money than before.
Could you identify these rich people you reference ?
I'd like to know what businesses they're in, and if they have any job opportunities or openings"

Pat Mucci -

The earnings of the S&P 500 was close to an all-time high last year. PLENTY of money is being made.

http://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/New_Home_Page/datafile/spearn.htm

Never let the facts get in the way of your opinions!

DT

[Patrick_Mucci]

"I know a good number of rich people, and NONE of them are making more money than before.
Could you identify these rich people you reference ?
I'd like to know what businesses they're in, and if they have any job opportunities or openings"

Pat Mucci -

The earnings of the S&P 500 was close to an all-time high last year. PLENTY of money is being made.

What was the S&P 500 index at on 01-07-11 as compared to 09-01-07 ?

5 % lower, 10 % lower or 15 % lower.

Who are the rich people, who are richer today, can you identify them ?

http://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/New_Home_Page/datafile/spearn.htm

Never let the facts get in the way of your opinions!

The chart supports my position.

You apparently don't understand the difference between income and wealth/net worth.

DT

[jeffwarne]

Sean as far as maintaining features, you and I agree most courses have too many anyway and many of the features, if  not the courses ,will disappear

[Sean_A]

As you can see from the graph (share of the total income by top 1%), the top 1% earners in US have been earning more and more since the mid-80's.



You and I may not know these folks, but they are there and doing better and better every year.

So looking at the chart...
were we better off in 1973?
because it didn't feel that way
doesn't the rise in their wealth correspond with the ENTIRE economy improving beginning around 1982

I think most would be better off ( economically) by trying to find a way to join the 1%, rather than trying to trying to think of ways for the 1% join the rest of us

Well Jeff, even in the hard times of 1973 I don't think the future looked nearly as bleak for factory workers and other non-skilled workers as it does today and it doesn't matter a damn about training because there just aren't enough decent jobs to support the population.  Its a sort of musical chairs except for some people are already sitting down.  Shit, I think we can safely say on a whole, the future has never looked less bleak for the have nots in the US.  There is no question there has been an absolute failure on the part of my generation and the previous baby boomer generation to look to the long term future of the US and for the first time our children cannot expect to do better than we did.  We must remember that a lot of wealth has stayed in wealthy hands because we have neglected the future and imo the onus is on the wealthy to change this trend because bad luck can knock on any door. This is in no way a condemnation of capitalism, just a stark look at reality and a reality that doesn't necessarily have to remain the way it is.  Before you retort, I don't know how the wealthy improve things, but I know they are the only ones who can.

I don't know whether or not the current climate will cause it, but cost to maintain features should always be a consideration of design.  

Ciao  

Sean,
You are probably right that the wealthy can be our solution.
But simply taking their money and redistributing it won't work.
Has it ever occurred to anyone that the unemployment rate might go down if we stopped paying people to NOT work?
I know many people who won't work during winter at decent part time jobs (that could lead to more lucrative career oriented year round work) because they hate the thought of losing their unemployment money, and if they do work, prefer to do it "off the books" to double dip.
Don't even get me started about NYS mailing unemployment checks to people wintering in other states.

I'd love to know just when " factory and other non-skilled workers" (your words) had a bright future.
I certainly remember the moaning in the 70's and 80's about these jobs going overseas and we certainly had horrendous conditions 100 years ago with the robber barons, child labor and horrendous working conditions.
Ultimately, there was an overcorrection with Unions winning them wages that gave the workers a comfortable lifestyle that gave them no incentive to improve themselves and move to a higher skill and wage level. (thus setting them selves up to be replaced by someone who didn't need $56 per hour + benefits to work on an assembly line)
The point is America is the land of opportunity, many have mistaken it for the land of entitlement.
I'm not sure we're entitled to never have to pick up and move and always have prosperity and a good job a half hour from where we grew up.
Throughout history people have migrated for their survival and in this case jobs.
I hear people complain about illegal immigration, yet they keep coming so there must be some work out there (or conversely it's that bad where they're from)
While I have sympathy for  an American displaced worker, he does have job training programs available and multiple other ways to improve himself or perhaps relocate.

Sean, I was pretty pissed at my dad when he told me would cover me until I graduated high school but after that I was on my own.
Currently I'm having to explain to my twin daughters why they have to contribute 1/2 to the cost of their elite college experience (while their friends with lower grades,lower  SATs, and fewer  activities pay nothing and their parents pay 1/3 of our cost  because they receive financial aid due to their parents lack of financial success and cash made "off the books"....but I digress)
 I worked in a paper mill for three years (I was the janitor ultimately working up to pallet stacker ), diligently saving every nickel and used that money to educate myself. After i graduated from college, for 2 years  I waded around in dirty bar juice, cleaning glasses by hand ,taking out garbage , and jumping up and down in a dumpster to make it all fit  to get the hours I neeed to practice golf during the days I wasn't overly exhausted from 12 hour shifts. Ultimately, I came to realize my father had done me a huge favor as I later competed for jobs with people who couldn't hold a candle to me in persistence and determination.
Conversely, I watched the people I worked with party every moment they weren't on the job, racking up debts with nice new cars and apartments.
Granted, perhaps  they didn't get the proper education and upbringing to understand how to get ahead-or chose not to.
I'm just not sure that taking more from those who have succeeded will help the problem-in fact I think it perpetuates it.
I'm a big fan of teaching the man to fish rather than giving him a fish .
That is where those of us who have benefitted from the system can help.

Sean as far a maintaining features, you and I agree most courses have too many anyway and many of the features, if  not the courses ,will disappear

Jeff

A whole generation of unskilled workers made a career since 1973 (a few of my brothers included).  I will be bet you dollars to cents that this generation of unskilled workers are not doing as well as previously nor will they in the future.  Those types of jobs are gone forever in the name of efficiency, progress and the global economy. 

I am not advocating government redistribution, but if the wealthy don't find a way to create more opportunities for more Americans (the key here is Americans) and thereby making themselves more money (nothing wrong with that!), then more and more people will advocate redistribution - which of course only weakens our country more.  I also think the wealth will dry up all around and that the top 1% will be slowly eroded over time.  I don't pretend to know how the wealthy can make a positive change, I only know it is only the wealthy who can.  Nobody else has the power or cash to do what they can.  I too am a big fan of teaching a man to fish, but at some point reality has to hit and we must admit to creating a global economy which really doesn't benefit working Americans long term. 

Golf seems a minor issue when talking about this stuff.  The game will survive, but frankly, I am not concerned about it in the least.

Kelly

I know it isn't PC, but I have long advocated protectionsim for key industrial areas including steel, automotive, farming, high tech, ship building, plane building.  The country cannot afford to not be a big player in any of these areas in terms of direct jobs, supplier jobs, related advances in technology and national security.  Eventually folks will figure this out as they buy cheap Chinese goods at the cost of their neighbour's livelyhood, but I fear it is already too late.  We have borrowed too much for too long to keep our position in the world and there is nobody left to turn to borrow more money, yet there is now way to pay the debt.  That said, I think its still worth trying a REAL 10 year plan which isn't beholden to party politics.  So to me, the first step other than recogonizes the US has been on the wrong path my entire adult life, is to end partisan politics NOW no matter what the cost is in terms of how we currently elect candidates and in how they govern. 

Ciao

[corey miller]

Sean

Since it is your chart the question goes to you.  How have the 1,000,000 legal immigrants that come to the United States every year (as well as the numerous "undocumented" immigrants) skewed the numbers?

[Lou_Duran]

Sure, Sean, let's bring back Smoot Hawley.  Just think, now that we are in a relatively weakened economic condition in comparison to our stature in the world during the 1920s, I am sure it will work much better.

Richard Choi

Does your pretty chart take into consideration the effects of taxes on the top 1%- say, if you live in NYC, start by whacking off 50%+ off the top?   Does it incorporate the freebies accruing to the non-paying (federal income taxes) bottom 50%?   I think not.  Might this paint a slightly different picture, you think?  

You don't seem to like how the "market" rewards economic activity.  Should President Obama name a Windows fair-pricing czar?  How about a Microsoft wages-setting director?  Do you think that marginal tax rates have anything to do with economic activity and how much and how hard people will work?  Me, I'll take my chances with the impersonal invisible hand, even if Gates and Ballmer are hiding behind the sheet.

Whether we like it or not, our comparative advantage lies in knowledge intensive areas.  Less educated and other unmotivated folks will continue to have fewer opportunities.  Sadly, as Jeff notes, we are rewarding idleness and the inability to delay gratification.  Our education system, for a variety of reasons, many rooted in the permissive 1960s "if-it-feels-good-do-it" ethos, is working to our disadvantage.  Any attempt, as Sean suggests, to arrest this momentum via coercive nationalistic means will make things worse very quickly.

We might look at Argentina and the Jockey Club for some guidance in answering Mr. Mucci's question.  And, in my opinion, Patrick is an optimist.

[David_Tepper]

"You apparently don't understand the difference between income and wealth/net worth."

Pat Mucci -

You are the one who stated "none of them are making more money than before."
Isn't "making money" the definition of  profit & income?

Corporate America is making plenty of money. Corporate America is rolling in cash on their balance sheets. Those are FACTS!

DT
tcmnav@aol.com

[Sean_A]

Lou

Have you visited a major manufacturing base in the US in recent years?  Go to Detroit and talk about how good the global economy has worked out.  Today there isn't much to protect so S-H wouldn't be much good - would it?  I know folks such as yourself have long believed that big business is good for the US, but its true only if big business provoides jobs for Americans.  What is the point of protecting American business interests if not to protect Americans?  All the fancy lingo and high brow jibberish doesn't alter this very basic fact.  American style capitalism relies on Americans having good jobs.  There is no other alternative and I don't hear any realistic talk of how these jobs can be provided in our post industrial economy.  Heck yes, I freely admit to being pro-protectionism, there is (was) far too much at stake to talk glibly about competition on the world market when the concept is in practice, has been in practice and will continue to be in practice.  So why not make the practice count for something worthwhile other than scoring political points?  

Ciao

[Richard Choi]

Lou, I have no desired to go into this subject in depth, especially when we have gone through this in the past. If you have any data linking marginal tax rates to GDP or people's working habits, I am all ears. I really don't care to debate anything if we are just talking about what our "beliefs" are since we are not likely to change either of our minds. If you have some actual fact, just PM me. But as I have posted with data and graphs before, there is absolutely no relationship between marginal tax rates and long-term health of the economy.

I would like to stay somewhat related to golf if possible.

[Patrick_Mucci]

"You apparently don't understand the difference between income and wealth/net worth."

Pat Mucci -

You are the one who stated "none of them are making more money than before."
Isn't "making money" the definition of  profit & income?

Either your reading comprehension skills have diminished, you're being intellectually dishonest, or, you're being disengenuous by taking my statement out of context and only partially quoting my exchange with Richard Choi.

Richard Choi stated:

The middle class which used to have access to golf club membership is earning less and less each year, while golf dues are still going up (initiation fees have come down significantly, but dues are increasing because they are losing members).

This situation will inevitably lead to even more exclusivity for golf membership as the weak clubs will die off while the richest of the clubs will flourish as rich are making even more money than before.

To which I responded:

"I know a good number of rich people, and NONE of them are making more money than before.

I was clear, I referenced "PEOPLE".

You introduced and/or tried to divert the focus to public corporations.

I asked you to identify rich people who are making more than before and you failed to do so, choosing instead to attempt to divert the focus to some public corporations.  If corporations horde their cash and don't distribute it, how can PEOPLE earn more money and get rich ?

As I stated, I don't know anyone who is doing better today than 3, 5 10 or 20 years ago.

Stick to the subject matter

Corporate America is making plenty of money.

If you call downsizing, layoofs, cutting expenses and retaining earnings because of the enormous uncertainty and instability that public corporations face. then maybe yes.  But, I don't know of ANY private corporations that are making plenty of money.


Corporate America is rolling in cash on their balance sheets. Those are FACTS!

Those aren't the facts.
Some Public Corporations have retained their cash, cash acquired vis a vis downsizing, layoffs and trimming expenses.
I don't know many corporations with increased earnings over pre-2007 earnings

And, I don't know of ANY private corporations that are "ROLLING IN MONEY"

Can you name some ?

Your brash statements regarding the well being of corporations are sadly lacking in substance and you've chosen NOT to present ALL of the facts.

"So, I'll ask you again, could you identify all of these rich people who are making more money under the current economic situation ?

Or will you concede that almost everyone is not doing as well  ?

[Lou_Duran]

My friend Sean,

One definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over that doesn't/can't work and expecting the results to be different.  Protectionism didn't work during the Depression, it didn't during Detroit's and the Rust Belt's glory days, and it won't work in the Socialist Republic of Blue States.  High regulation, high cost, high tax, high barriers to entry place America and Western Europe at a great disadvantage.  BTW, I have quite a few years on the shop floor.

I am for big business.  I am for little business.  I am for enterprise.  I am for hard work.  I am for the opportunity to go from poverty to the top 1%.  I am for giving a hand to my fellow man who needs the help in order to better himself to the best of his ability.

Richard,

You're absolutely right about changing minds.  As to the effect of marginal tax rates on economic behavior, I'll leave our audience to decide the extent if any.  Obviously several presidents- Kennedy, Reagan, Bush II, and now Obama now think otherwise.  But if your premise is right- no relationship- we might as well jack them up and get rid of the deficit.  As Art Laffer might say, good luck!

Oh, this is all very relevant to golf.  Dry up discretionary income in any number of ways and see what happens to the game.  And to your job.

[Patrick_Mucci]

Sean Arble,

Not long ago I was attending a funeral where the funeral procession drove through an industrial area.

Building after building after building after building was vacant.

At one time, thriving businesses which employed thousands of people inhabited those buildings.

Over decades, slowly but surely, businesses were driven out of those buildings by a number of forces, mostly anti-business forces/legislation and absurd trade policies.

I think you're right, we have to reestablish a manufacturing base.
It can't be done overnight, but, if we don't do it, we'll never have substantive increases in employment.

Modern technology and the reliance on modern technology, kills the middle and lower class, as the work force in hi-tech inherently excludes those classes.

And, hi-tech replaces jobs with machines that don't require health insurance.
Machines that don't sue their employer or have minimum wage, union representation and limited work hours.

Donald Trump once made the claim that HE, not the bureaucrats in Washington, should negotiate our trade treaties.
And, I agree with him.

We as a nation must encourage the return of manufactuing, not villify it.

But, that can only happen with a symbiotic "Business-Government" policy, not an adversarial policy, which has existed for decades.

ONLY NOW are people waking up and understanding that BUSINESS is NOT an evil.

Business is more than desirable, it's Necessary if you want to increase employment and wages.

End of rant  

[David_Tepper]

Pat Mucci -

Here are some facts:

1) In the 2nd quarter of this year, Ford Motor had a pre-tax profit of $2.1 billion, more than it had earned in 9 of the past 10 years. In the 3rd quarter, Ford's profit was $1.7 billion.
2) One of the best signs of corporate profitably & confidence is the dividend growth rate. I would refer you to the "Speaking of Dividends" column is this weekend's BARRON'S. The headline is "Savoring a Super Year." Among other facts, the column states that dividend increases were up 45% and decreases declined 82%.  In 2010, the number of "favorable dividend actions" (1,729) was more than 10 times greater than the number of negative actions (145).

The economy is certainly not back to where it was in the fall of 2007, but, then again, in hindsight it is clear that the economy was puffed up in part by rampant corporate speculation, fraud and malfeasance. The good news for myself and many of my clients is that our accounts are higher in value now than they were on 9/30/07.

The important point is that the economy is recovering, whether you care to admit it or not. Corporate profits (at least for the S&P 500) are likely to hit an all-time this year.

Just a few months ago, the economic gurus were worried about a double-dip. Now the concern is that the economy is heating up too fast. Things change!

P.S. I highly recommend the economic commentary of Jim Paulsen, of Wells Capital:

https://www.wellscap.com/docs/ecomonic_and_market_perspective/EMP0111.pdf  

P.P.S. You will notice he refers to "record setting cash hoards" in the 3rd paragraph.

DT  
  -

  

[Sean_A]

Lou

What you call protectionism concerning major industries I call half hearted - at best.  Our government never came close to a good program of protectionism.  Their bright ideas were to wait until things are bad then bail out industries.  That isn't what protectionism should be about.  It should be much more forward thinking, proactive and that means cooperation between government, industry and the would be unions.  To say protectionism failed is akin to saying we failed in Vietnam.  Neither venture had a hope in hell because the government RARELY HAS A LONG TERM PLAN that is carried on regardless of which party is in power.  What is wild is that you seem to be blaming protectionsim for the stae of American industry.  Wow, thats out of left field.  Don't get me wrong.  From a consumer PoV the Japanese invasion of the early 70s and forward was a great thing to improve quality.  However, I believe folks at the head of the Big 3(4) and government should have realized they were not up against a normal competitor.  They were up against a country with a plan to grab a share of the American market, not merely companies.

Patrick

We agree.  Good jobs are what drive a good economy.  It can't be any other way with 275 million people.  

David

Ford's profits are up, but a big reason for this is rationalization.  A lot less people work for Ford than 20 years ago.  There are less factories.  The goal now is more profit per car with less cars built.  Don't forget that Ford took over a $12 billion loss in 2006 at a cost of some of their premier brands such as Jag and Aston Martin (a profitable company at the time).  This is no time for short term memories.  

Ciao

[David_Elvins]

Donald Trump once made the claim that HE, not the bureaucrats in Washington, should negotiate our trade treaties.
And, I agree with him.

So you will be supporting Trump's run for the Presidency then?

[David_Tepper]

Sean -

I made no comment regarding how Ford earned their sizable profit, I simply stated that they did.

If you go to page 8 of Jim Paulson's economy commentary I linked, you will see that the decline in auto sales in 2008-09 is not materially worse than the recessions of 1982 and 1991 and that the current recovery in auto sales is very much in line with the rebounds from those two prior recessions.

Maybe we truly are the "me" generation. We even think our recessions are bigger and badder than others!

DT     

[Craig Sweet]

My heart aches for those poor rich people that didn't "earn" as much these past two years. Thank god our benevolent government has been doing all it can to help them out in their time of need.

I hope you all will say a prayer of thanks to Mr. Obama for helping the unfortunate wealthy by doing all he could to help them avoid a crippling 3% increase in their taxes...and for his hard work to keep regulation of their struggling banks and finacial institutions to a minimum, and for the good sense to help those struggling insurance companies by insisting we all have to buy their health  insuramce policies.

Oh, and lastly, praise Mr. Obama and Jesus for this holy crusade so we can keep this war economy humming along!

[Patrick_Mucci]

My heart aches for those poor rich people that didn't "earn" as much these past two years.

Thank god our benevolent government has been doing all it can to help them out in their time of need.

Craig,

it's not a benevolent government that's paying to help out those in their time in need, it's the people earning $ 200,000+ who are paying to help out.

I hope you all will say a prayer of thanks to Mr. Obama for helping the unfortunate wealthy by doing all he could to help them avoid a crippling 3% increase in their taxes...

If you think anyone objects to JUST a 3 % increase in income taxes you're either misinformed or misguided.
I think you'll find that the tax burden is far greater than that.

and for his hard work to keep regulation of their struggling banks and finacial institutions to a minimum, and for the good sense to help those struggling insurance companies by insisting we all have to buy their health  insuramce policies.

Glass Steagall NEVER should have been repealed.

And, if Congress wanted reform ALL they had to do was reinstate Glass Steagall, a 33 page document.
Instead they chose to implement a 2,200 page document that DOESN'T address all of the problems, a bill which still comes into conflict with Glass Steagall

Oh, and lastly, praise Mr. Obama and Jesus for this holy crusade so we can keep this war economy humming along!

The 10th anniversary of 9-11 will be upon us shortly.
Are you stating that we should have done nothing after 9-11 and just waited for more attacks on America ?

How sad and unfortunate that everyone forgets so quickly.

[Patrick_Mucci]

Donald Trump once made the claim that HE, not the bureaucrats in Washington, should negotiate our trade treaties.
And, I agree with him.

So you will be supporting Trump's run for the Presidency then?

Wouldn't that depend upon who the other candidates are ?

Just because I agree with someone on a given position, doesn't mean I agree with them on every position, or that I would support them for President.

Only a cretin could make that jump in logic.
Have you been communicaing with TEPaul lately ?

[David_Elvins]

So you will be supporting Trump's run for the Presidency then?
Wouldn't that depend upon who the other candidates are ?
Just because I agree with someone on a given position, doesn't mean I agree with them on every position, or that I would support them for President.
Only a cretin could make that jump in logic.
Have you been communicaing with TEPaul lately ?

It was a question, not a statement, Patrick.  It will be a very interesting scenario if the rumours are true and he is running at the next election or the one after.  

He could sort the US out the way that Berlusconi has sorted out Italy    

BTW, hasn't it been established long ago that the war in Iraq is in no way related to September 11?   

[Patrick_Mucci]

Pat Mucci -

Here are some facts:

1) In the 2nd quarter of this year, Ford Motor had a pre-tax profit of $2.1 billion, more than it had earned in 9 of the past 10 years. In the 3rd quarter, Ford's profit was $1.7 billion.

So, what happens with one company represents what happens with all companies ?
That's some leap in logic.

2) One of the best signs of corporate profitably & confidence is the dividend growth rate. I would refer you to the "Speaking of Dividends" column is this weekend's BARRON'S. The headline is "Savoring a Super Year." Among other facts, the column states that dividend increases were up 45% and decreases declined 82%.  In 2010, the number of "favorable dividend actions" (1,729) was more than 10 times greater than the number of negative actions (145).

Could dividend returns be higher because stock prices are lower ?

As to confidence, NO ONE has any.

That's why companies are holding on to their cash

The economy is certainly not back to where it was in the fall of 2007, but, then again, in hindsight it is clear that the economy was puffed up in part by rampant corporate speculation, fraud and malfeasance. The good news for myself and many of my clients is that our accounts are higher in value now than they were on 9/30/07.

The important point is that the economy is recovering, whether you care to admit it or not. Corporate profits (at least for the S&P 500) are likely to hit an all-time this year.

You're in a dream world.
Look at unemployment and revenues

Just a few months ago, the economic gurus were worried about a double-dip. Now the concern is that the economy is heating up too fast. Things change!

Those worries still abound

P.S. I highly recommend the economic commentary of Jim Paulsen, of Wells Capital:

https://www.wellscap.com/docs/ecomonic_and_market_perspective/EMP0111.pdf  

P.P.S. You will notice he refers to "record setting cash hoards" in the 3rd paragraph.

Those companies are hoarding it for a reason.
They have NO confidence in the economy and/or Washington, DC.

Answer these questions:
If you were a CEO would you spend your cash now ?

Would you expand ?
Would you make substantial capital outlays ?
Would you hire at significant rates

If you say yes to any of these, you're being intellectually dishonest