If the current economic environment continues, will

[David_Tepper]

"American Business - Never had it so good"

"The current profit season is shaping up to be one of the best ever. For non-financial firms in the S&P 500, earnings per share are now higher than they have been for at least a decade."   

http://www.economist.com/node/18073369

[mike_malone]

 This news will only exacerbate the split between the have yachts and the rest of the country.

[Patrick_Mucci]

David Tepper,

You're delusional.

Look at small businesses, the ones that make up the majority of our work force and tell me how they're doing.

I don't know any small business owners or small business executives who claim that business is booming.

You're living in a fantasy world, but, your optimism is nice.

[David_Tepper]

Pat Mucci -

I am only relating FACTS! Sorry if they don't confirm you preconceived notion of what is going on.

P.S. I am a small business man myself!l

DT

[Jamie Barber]

David - is this not you then?
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-11942117

[Craig Van Egmond]

Wow David, no wonder your so optimistic! 

[Patrick_Mucci]

Pat Mucci -

I am only relating FACTS! Sorry if they don't confirm you preconceived notion of what is going on.

You're not relating FACTS, you're relating a report that claims to represent the facts.

Take for example the unemployment report.
It only reflects people collecting, not that millions that no longer collect that still can't find jobs.

That report is FACTUALLY INCORRECT.

I think you'll find the same with some of your other reports.

As to the question of new commercial office space in Northern NJ from 2000 to 2010, from 2005 to 2010 it's de minimis.
Yet, the vacancy rate continued to climb.
I'll have to research the 2000 to 2005 info.


P.S. I am a small business man myself!l

DT

[David_Tepper]

Pat Mucci -

Did you actually bother to read the article in the Economist?
Can you point out one statement in that article that is false or misleading?

DT

[Patrick_Mucci]

Pat Mucci -

I am only relating FACTS! Sorry if they don't confirm you preconceived notion of what is going on.

P.S. I am a small business man myself!

How small ?
How large ?

[Mike Sweeney]

David Tepper,

You're delusional.

Look at small businesses, the ones that make up the majority of our work force and tell me how they're doing.

I don't know any small business owners or small business executives who claim that business is booming.

You're living in a fantasy world, but, your optimism is nice.

Pat,

We probably have 25 public market clients with with market caps ranging from $15 million to $400 million. In the last two months, 8 of them raised capital and probably 5-8 more are looking now.

That window had been closed for 3+ years and it re-opened incredibly fast.

As a firm, we have gone from 2 people in April to roughly 10 now, however some are consultants.

It is not perfect, but a year ago I was posting a little tooooo much on GCA.com.

Back to work......

[mike_malone]

 Our David Tepper is not "the" David Tepper, although he is a fine gentleman.

[Craig Van Egmond]

Consumers are using their credit cards again...

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20110207/ap_on_bi_go_ec_fi/us_consumer_credit

[Jamie Barber]

Our David Tepper is not "the" David Tepper, although he is a fine gentleman.

It was tongue in check - I'm sure they both are

[Patrick_Mucci]

Mike Sweeney,

I want things to improve just as much as anyone, and, I see signs of improvement, but, I don't see the rosey picture that David is presenting.

According to his posts, clubs should soon have waiting lists(;

[Jud_T]

Pat,

The problem for clubs may be much worse than the economy in general...club memberships will not be broadly in high demand till the economy is really motoring on all cylinders again, which could be 5-10 years off, at which point you may have missed a whole generation of new members, while the older members gradually quit or die off....

[JMEvensky]

Pat,

The problem for clubs may be much worse than the economy in general...club memberships will not be broadly in high demand till the economy is really motoring on all cylinders again, which could be 5-10 years off, at which point you may have missed a whole generation of new members, while the older members gradually quit or die off....

I actually think the economic problems just mask the real problems clubs have--the shifting demographics.

I'd bet a lot of club Boards just blame things on the economy and assume that when the economy picks back up,so will their dues line.

In a perverse turn,the economic collapse has given carte blanche to a lot of Boards to say that "it wasn't our fault".

[jeffwarne]

Mike Sweeney,

I want things to improve just as much as anyone, and, I see signs of improvement, but, I don't see the rosey picture that David is presenting.

According to his posts, clubs should soon have waiting lists(;

Patrick,
David's not presenting a "rosy" picture.
He's just trying to present something positive that's being reported-we certainly see enough negative.

That said, even if things were truly turning rosy, I still think there are way too many golf courses out there for true golfers (not the ones who took it up for a couple years because it was cool)
Even in the heavily populated MET area, so many new courses were built with fee structures that sucked the wealthiest members out of their former clubs. Just on the East End this decade(where for years it seemed no one would build again)-Friar's Head, Sebonack, East Hampton, Laurel Links, The Bridge-
many of those members have either left their former clubs, or are spending way less time at them.
It hasn't taken a toll on the East End Clubs as most are thriving, but I'm sure there's a ripple effect on the clubs up the island that lost some of their wealthiest members as members decided to pare down.
This cycle is repeated all over the country with supply outweighing demand-Long island and the East End are doing way better than much of the country where golf has been in a recession(due to oversupply) since before there was a recession.

[Patrick_Mucci]

Pat,

The problem for clubs may be much worse than the economy in general...club memberships will not be broadly in high demand till the economy is really motoring on all cylinders again, which could be 5-10 years off, at which point you may have missed a whole generation of new members, while the older members gradually quit or die off....

I don't think that's correct.

Almost every club I'm familiar with has made alterations in operations due to changing demographics and utilization patterns.
Now maybe they didn't make them as quickly as they could or as radically as they could, but, they're trying to alter their operations to attract and retain a membership culture that differs from the old culture.

But, part of the problem is that I think they overestimated the "new' culture's utilization patterns.
They don't have breakfast, stay for lunch and dinner.
It's more like an hourly versus a daily parking lot.

The only model that would accomodate the "new" culture is a golf club only model, but, that conflicts with the old culture who want more in the way of services, and the culture that wants children's activities, such as the pool.

It's not an easy time and it's harder to get clubs to make decisions because everyone is so uncertain.[/b]

I actually think the economic problems just mask the real problems clubs have--the shifting demographics.

I'd bet a lot of club Boards just blame things on the economy and assume that when the economy picks back up,so will their dues line.

In a perverse turn,the economic collapse has given carte blanche to a lot of Boards to say that "it wasn't our fault".

[Bill_McBride]

Income inequality has grown substantially in the last 30 years.  Doesn't that decrease the pool of available private club members?

We are seeing some positive signs in our commercial construction business, although some of it has come through reinvention, i.e. finding different types of clients.  I hope everyone else is seeing some of the same.

[mike_malone]

  My greatest fear for clubs is a run. Just as there was a run to get in in the late 90's early 2000's there will likely be a surge out of clubs once the future difficulties are no longer denied. Herd behaviour is rampant in clubs so we should not be surprised.

[Patrick_Mucci]

Income inequality has grown substantially in the last 30 years.  Doesn't that decrease the pool of available private club members?


Then why did the demand grow so rapidly during that same time frame ?  ?  ?
[/b]

We are seeing some positive signs in our commercial construction business, although some of it has come through reinvention, i.e. finding different types of clients.  I hope everyone else is seeing some of the same.

I tend to hope for the best, but prepare for the worst.

That sounds prudent to me.

[Doug Siebert]

Layoffs are now at the lowest they've been for 13 years.  Maybe that's because they've laid off so many over the past two years, but in order to reduce unemployment you first have to stop firing people, so this is a positive sign.

http://www.usatoday.com/money/economy/2011-02-07-layoffs-rare_N.htm

[Craig Sweet]

I hang with a pretty diverse bunch...from starving artist to young computer entreprenures to old money CEO's...and I can't think of any that are planning on joining a country club anytime soon.  The common response is they don't play as much golf as they use to and it isnt worth the monthly expense to join. I think the whole club experince has lost its appeal...if it was ever there...for many people....there's simply too many demands on the family....one child playing on a travel sport team pretty much becomes a full time leisure time suck.

[Ian Andrew]

Then why did the demand grow so rapidly during that same time frame

Because people actually believed that the economy could be managed. They levered themselves because they thought there would never be another recession or high interest rates ever again. They bought what they desired with debt, including memberships. Almost everyone I know in their mid 40’s is very levered and dependent on low interest rates. That’s not healthy for the long term.

Continuing the discussion…

Let’s assume the economy is quite likely to stagger along for the rest of the decade. That makes a really tough environment for Private Clubs to attract new members because that’s an entire decade of uncertainty. Let’s say interest rates creep up 3% to a more realistic level based upon history. People will be even more levered as the economy improves. The economy could conceivably be better, but individuals may be much worse off. I honestly think we will stagnate due to this particular reason for the remainder of the decade.

Could this impact last…

This can create a generation raised during economic uncertainty that may remain more reluctant to join a private club than past generations. My parents who were born into the depression and then lived through food rationing (1939 to 1951) remained debt adverse all their lives through their experiences. 

[jeffwarne]

one child playing on a travel sport team pretty much becomes a full time leisure time suck.

You hit the nail on the head.
Jr. can't play Little league or local youth hoop at his school or community. (because he's "elite")
Instead, he and 12 other average to mediocre kids pack up and travel an hour + to go play the average to mediocre kids from another town. If everybody's traveling, it's not really "elite"
The whole day's shot, excess fossil fuels are used, and dad didn't get to tee it up.
Bring back local sports for yound kids.
i blame soccer for the start of the travel syndrome-but every sport's doing it now.


as far as Clubs, there are just too many cheap options in many cases-and because less people are joining and are being spread out amongsts the many affordable courses, any sense of community and belonging to a group or club becomes lost as well..
Oversupply goes away from closures or more people taking the game up.
It's good for golf consumers in the short run, the long run will be dicey