I don't believe that it is a win-win for everyone involved. I think it can be a win, but there is also potential downside as well.
I believe it is a win for current members of private clubs involved only if their home club was going to shut the doors or go broke. If it somehow salvaged the member's home course it is a win. Otherwise, I'd be hard-pressed to be swayed that existing members of some of these clubs got a "win."
I believe it is a win for the private clubs if they get some much needed revenue. I would hope the clubs did their homework appropriately and decided it was a necessity for them, in which case it should serve as a win (at least in the short-term). In the long-term if prospective members decide that the Outpost Club is a better value and join Outpost INSTEAD of a private club (as opposed to being someone that wasn't going to join a club otherwise) then that's not a win for the private clubs. Likewise, if young members that aren't in an initiation heavy plan at one of these clubs decides to bail out for the "greener pastures" of the Outpost, then that isn't a win for the private clubs.
I don't have any idea what type of up front initiation or ongoing fees Outpost requires. I also don't know if they required the clubs to sign long-term deals. But one potential scenario where this isn't even a win for an Outpost member is if the deals are short-term in nature and the economy turns and the nicer clubs back out of the arrangement and Outpost members are left holding a less valuable membership.
In the interest of full disclosure, I recently joined as a national member at a club that I believe can be also be accessed through Outpost. I was aware of Outpost at the time and didn't bother to pursue the financial details or attempt to join, so shame on me if it would have been cheaper and provided broader access. To me, the most important criteria in selecting my membership was that I love the golf course, the people, and the culture and I wanted to be a part of this place and support this club. I'd love to play some of the Outpost courses, but I'll worry about that when I have the time, the money, and the invitations to do so. I completely understand why those that decided to join Outpost did so, and I don't fault anyone for that decision. Different things work for different people.
But saying it is an absolute win-win for everyone is just as biased as it would be for me to say it is a lose-lose for everyone involved. I think it is somewhere in between.
Tim,
Since measuring risk is a large part of my occupation, I'll make the case that this club model works as win-win with very limited, if any, down side.
1) Participating clubs (offerring periodic play) gain incremental revenue with little or no additional cost. They reap $$ for greens fees, F&B and the intangible exposure to their club and course. They hardly need to be in the position of going bust to enjoy these benefits. After all, is this any different than hosting an outing? Most clubs (and a majority of their members) will be happy to supplement their revenues and offset their costs with limited outside play, especially one with golf aficionados (vs. drunken local CCFAD regulars).
To your point about joining that club If you live in the Midwest, would you be a likely candidate to join a club in the Northeast? or in the Plains? Maybe, but I'd bet that any love affair found with such a club should well attract another candidate who might never had played there before, save for the OC. This attraction would well offset the implied negativity of not joining one specific away club.
As for losing a young new member, the OC doesn't really appear to function as a replacement for a local club membership. For all but the most exclusive clubs, initiation fees are dropping fitfully all over. This appears to be just starting and endemic to even some of those venues beloved by GCA fans
2) You are right about the goal of signing longer-term deals with these clubs, but my guess is that with the over abundance of clubs and courses, today's blend of attraction and relatively low cost of entry will enable an OC member to more than happily amortize his or her investment with very good courses for at least a good number of years.
Other than for the regular curmudgeons who sneer at any outside play on their exalted grounds, how is this not a win-win for everyone? From the list of people who compose the OC's advisory board (inc. Golf's most beloved), I highly doubt the visiting crowd won't be manageable and pleasant.
I'm not biased at all here as I have no horse in this race. I'm just happy to see a golf business model that helps preserve terrific clubs and the principals of the game.
Shiv,
Hey whats wrong with a little Avon Lady and a timeshare you might actually use and isn't tradable??