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Mike Hamilton

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Re: "A Season in Dornoch" Rubenstein - Global Warming
« Reply #25 on: March 22, 2010, 09:41:22 PM »
As evidenced this weekend with temps in the 70s, golf shots definitely fly father in warmer weather.

So I think a more important question is will global warming (or climate change) require Augusta to add even more length.


Carl Nichols

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: "A Season in Dornoch" Rubenstein - Global Warming
« Reply #26 on: March 22, 2010, 09:55:21 PM »
'The most difficult subjects can be explained to the most slow-witted man if he has not formed any idea of them already;  but the simplest thing cannot be made clear to the most intelligent man if he is firmly persuaded that he knows already, without a shadow of doubt, what is laid before him.'

-Leo Tolstloy, 1897 (quoted in Michael Lewis' new book The Big Short [which, like the other's I've read of his, is excellent])




This is one of Tolstoy's many great quotes -- but to which side in this debate do you believe it applies? 

Jason McNamara

Re: "A Season in Dornoch" Rubenstein - Global Warming
« Reply #27 on: March 23, 2010, 12:40:49 AM »
So I think a more important question is will global warming (or climate change) require Augusta to add even more length.


Heh.  On Augusta's list of top 20 concerns, that one is #47.

Sean_A

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: "A Season in Dornoch" Rubenstein - Global Warming
« Reply #28 on: March 23, 2010, 03:02:20 AM »
I always find this topic bizarre.  It seems quite obvious to me that pollution (including Co2) and extinguishing the resources of the world are problems for man.  Even if the actions of man have no effect on the "health", green house gases or global warming, it is imperative we act not if only to preserve ourselves.  Instead, we get typical knucklehead partisan politics evading the issues with seemingly impossible to solve larger issues.  It is a one step at a time process and there is no question many steps have been taken already.  BUT it is painfully obvious we still have a long way to go.  When car companies spend 10 years and countless millions on developing engines which allow people to be more fuel efficient and the reaction to this sort of development is "great, now I can drive a 5 litre car and it gets the same fuel economy as my old 3 litre car" then we are still well behind the ball.  If attempting to reduce pollution means tying the entire issue into global warming and attempting to get a good percentage of the world to act in unison - fine.  I can't see how anybody can possibly bitch about this, but then I am one not to suffer bullshit easily.

Chappers

I am not sure the south coast is still "building" land.  Burnham was exactly the same as Rye, but some are now thinking that "growth" process is over.

So far as the original question goes, I don't know what Steel saw.

Ciao    
New plays planned for 2024: Nothing

Ally Mcintosh

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: "A Season in Dornoch" Rubenstein - Global Warming
« Reply #29 on: March 23, 2010, 05:27:16 AM »
Sean, Mark,

I don't think you can generalise by saying "south coast"... Dunes are created by the accretion (building up) of sand... It is the natural succession... Where coast is eroding, the material is usually moved around the coast so that it builds elsewhere... This is dependent on many micro and macro-climatic factors... and whether a bit of coast erodes or accretes can change over time or with one great event...

Much of Dublin Bay is accreting at present... It is very visible on Bull Island (Royal Dublin) where you can see the new foredunes with the different grasses... Portmarnock is both accreting (South) and eroding (East)...

The building of erosion defences themselves will change the order of things...

As for Dornoch, I don't know...

Mark Pearce

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: "A Season in Dornoch" Rubenstein - Global Warming
« Reply #30 on: March 23, 2010, 05:41:02 AM »
Tom Birkert,

Are you a scientist by training and, if so, what science did you study?
In June I will be riding the first three stages of this year's Tour de France route for charity.  630km (394 miles) in three days, with 7800m (25,600 feet) of climbing for the William Wates Memorial Trust (https://rideleloop.org/the-charity/) which supports underprivileged young people.

Mark Chaplin

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: "A Season in Dornoch" Rubenstein - Global Warming
« Reply #31 on: March 23, 2010, 06:09:28 AM »
Ally - generalised south coast? Rye is on the south coast. Burnham the west coast and Brancaster the east coast but faces north. I do agree the sand is being shifted around.

I can never see large sums of money being spent to protect leisure land belonging to private generaly middle class clubs.

I could see HMG or the Scots parliament spending money to protect St Andrews if it was ever required as the economic benefits are enormous.
Cave Nil Vino

Ally Mcintosh

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: "A Season in Dornoch" Rubenstein - Global Warming
« Reply #32 on: March 23, 2010, 08:05:12 AM »
I didn't mention Brancaster or Burnham, Mark... I was referring to Sean's comments... Things can change and they are different from one piece of coast to the next (or even within the same golf course)... That's all...

Sean_A

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: "A Season in Dornoch" Rubenstein - Global Warming
« Reply #33 on: March 23, 2010, 08:11:55 AM »
I didn't mention Brancaster or Burnham, Mark... I was referring to Sean's comments... Things can change and they are different from one piece of coast to the next (or even within the same golf course)... That's all...

Ally

It wasn't my intention to lump both Burnham and Rye as being effected by the exact same processes - though this could very well be the case.  I was pointing out that I THINK the two distinct areas are now no longer adding land to the coast.  And, it may be the case that both areas are now in a reverse process of the past 100 years.

Ciao 
New plays planned for 2024: Nothing

Ally Mcintosh

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: "A Season in Dornoch" Rubenstein - Global Warming
« Reply #34 on: March 23, 2010, 08:22:48 AM »
I didn't mention Brancaster or Burnham, Mark... I was referring to Sean's comments... Things can change and they are different from one piece of coast to the next (or even within the same golf course)... That's all...

Ally

It wasn't my intention to lump both Burnham and Rye as being effected by the exact same processes - though this could very well be the case.  I was pointing out that I THINK the two distinct areas are now no longer adding land to the coast.  And, it may be the case that both areas are now in a reverse process of the past 100 years.

Ciao 

OK Sean,

Interesting to note that they may be in the reverse process... It shows that things change... The bottom line is that before golf clubs decide to undertake erosion management, they have to have a full understanding of what they are dealing with... They also have to understand how their decisions will change the natural order of both the golf course and land further down the coast...

John Kirk

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: "A Season in Dornoch" Rubenstein - Global Warming
« Reply #35 on: March 23, 2010, 08:30:21 AM »
http://scienceblogs.com/deltoid/2009/01/97_of_active_climatologists_ag.php

Just because 97% of climatologists agree that anthropogenic global warming is occurring, doesn't mean it's true.  Actually, it does.

I guess it depends on whose opinion you trust.





John Kirk

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: "A Season in Dornoch" Rubenstein - Global Warming
« Reply #36 on: March 23, 2010, 08:38:34 AM »
Ooooo...I managed to snag the coveted 35th reply spot...top of page 2.

Gary Slatter

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: "A Season in Dornoch" Rubenstein - Global Warming
« Reply #37 on: March 23, 2010, 08:47:36 AM »
http://scienceblogs.com/deltoid/2009/01/97_of_active_climatologists_ag.php

Just because 97% of climatologists agree that anthropogenic global warming is occurring, doesn't mean it's true.  Actually, it does.

I guess it depends on whose opinion you trust.





How many of them would have a job if they were wrong?
Gary Slatter
gary.slatter@raffles.com

Mark Pearce

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: "A Season in Dornoch" Rubenstein - Global Warming
« Reply #38 on: March 23, 2010, 09:19:05 AM »
http://scienceblogs.com/deltoid/2009/01/97_of_active_climatologists_ag.php

Just because 97% of climatologists agree that anthropogenic global warming is occurring, doesn't mean it's true.  Actually, it does.

I guess it depends on whose opinion you trust.





How many of them would have a job if they were wrong?
Just about all of them.  There's some crap gets talked about global warming.  However, I think pretty much everyone agrees that the world is getting warmer (even the sceptics).  I believe 9 of the 10 hottest years on record in the UK were in the last decade and the 10th was 1998 (I think, certainly late 90s).  The question is whether this climate change is man-made or not.  Now there's plenty of debate over that (most of it fairly facile) but whether it's man made or not the fact is that studying it to form a view as to the likely consequences and whether there is anything we can do about it (and, if there is, whether we want to) seems fairly important to me, particularly if, as seems likely, warming brings with it a greater frequency of extreme weather events.
In June I will be riding the first three stages of this year's Tour de France route for charity.  630km (394 miles) in three days, with 7800m (25,600 feet) of climbing for the William Wates Memorial Trust (https://rideleloop.org/the-charity/) which supports underprivileged young people.

John Kirk

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: "A Season in Dornoch" Rubenstein - Global Warming
« Reply #39 on: March 23, 2010, 09:22:18 AM »
http://scienceblogs.com/deltoid/2009/01/97_of_active_climatologists_ag.php

Just because 97% of climatologists agree that anthropogenic global warming is occurring, doesn't mean it's true.  Actually, it does.

I guess it depends on whose opinion you trust.


How many of them would have a job if they were wrong?


Gee, Gary...I dunno.  Are you insinuating there is pressure to conform in the scientific community?

I gotta get on a plane.

Jeff Taylor

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: "A Season in Dornoch" Rubenstein - Global Warming
« Reply #40 on: March 23, 2010, 09:23:16 AM »
I keep reading about this mountain of science but nobody ever details it. I keep hearing about Exxon's big pile of money that is spent on "skeptics" research but never hear how out sized they are when compared to Government research. Of course we all know that Government research is always on the up and up (no agenda here). I keep hearing about Fox news and it's rejection of journalistic principles. It's a good thing we have all those other puritan networks to make things fair and balanced.
Maybe the totality of evidence supports AGW. However, everyday I read or hear something that seems just a plausible when it comes to explaining our changing climate. Maybe more studies are appropriate before we remake (by force) the world of human existence.

Carl Nichols

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: "A Season in Dornoch" Rubenstein - Global Warming
« Reply #41 on: March 23, 2010, 10:15:09 AM »
http://scienceblogs.com/deltoid/2009/01/97_of_active_climatologists_ag.php

Just because 97% of climatologists agree that anthropogenic global warming is occurring, doesn't mean it's true.  Actually, it does.

I guess it depends on whose opinion you trust.


You can assume that anthropogenic global warming is occurring but still recognize that there are huge questions to be answered [some of which are really about policy, rather than science], like: 

(1) How much (within some degree of precision) is the globe actually warming? 

(2) How much of that warming (within some degree of precision) is caused by greenhouse gas emissions?

(3) How much worse would a warmer globe be?

(4) How much (if at all) would the proposed limitations on emissions slow down or reverse warming?

(5) How much do you have to spend to achieve the slow down/reversal?

(6) Is it ultimately worth it to spend the money on global warming vs. something else?


Tom Birkert

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: "A Season in Dornoch" Rubenstein - Global Warming
« Reply #42 on: March 23, 2010, 11:38:42 AM »
http://scienceblogs.com/deltoid/2009/01/97_of_active_climatologists_ag.php

Just because 97% of climatologists agree that anthropogenic global warming is occurring, doesn't mean it's true.  Actually, it does.

I guess it depends on whose opinion you trust.





How many of them would have a job if they were wrong?
Just about all of them.  There's some crap gets talked about global warming.  However, I think pretty much everyone agrees that the world is getting warmer (even the sceptics).  I believe 9 of the 10 hottest years on record in the UK were in the last decade and the 10th was 1998 (I think, certainly late 90s).  The question is whether this climate change is man-made or not.  Now there's plenty of debate over that (most of it fairly facile) but whether it's man made or not the fact is that studying it to form a view as to the likely consequences and whether there is anything we can do about it (and, if there is, whether we want to) seems fairly important to me, particularly if, as seems likely, warming brings with it a greater frequency of extreme weather events.

Mark,

How far back do records go? At most 150 years? How old is the planet? Several billion years...

CO2 rose dramatically after WW2, yet temperatures fell. CO2 has risen over the last 10 years, temperatures have not risen. The IPCC models did not predict that, which instantly discredits them.

Correlation does not equate causation.

As for extreme weather events, in the UK there were floods in Cockermouth which were attributed to global warming. However, floods happened 50 years ago and 100 years ago. What wasn't around then was an entire industry designed to attribute such events to global warming!

The leading expert on hurricanes has repeatedly stated that there has been no increase in hurricane activity due to any alleged warming. What you will find happening is that more damage is done as more and more people are living in areas of hurricane activity (or indeed flood plains).

Of course climate change is happening. It always has, and always will. It's just arrogant to think we're either responsible or can control it. When we can start controlling minor climatic events such as hurricanes, earthquakes, tsunamis etc, then I might believe that we could control the entire climate! It's a ridiculous notion...

The climate is such a chaotic, complex system or which lots is not understood. To suggest that temperatures can accurately be predicted 90 years in advance is just preposterous. They're guessing, based on which side their bread is buttered. Releasing reports saying "Nothing is wrong" means no further research grants. Saying "Disaster is coming" gets press coverage and grants for more research...

As for the difference between weather and climate? That's easy. When it's cold, it's weather. When it's hot, it's climate.

Mark Pearce

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: "A Season in Dornoch" Rubenstein - Global Warming
« Reply #43 on: March 23, 2010, 12:01:07 PM »
Tom,

Can I repeat my earlier question.  Are you a scientist and what science are you trained in?

As to whether temperatures have risen in the past 10 years, you say they have not.  However, as I mentioned, Met Office records show that we have had 9 of the 10 hottest summers on record, so I don't follow your point.  To suggest that it's "arrogant" to think that we can affect global climate is to suggest a fundamental lack of understanding of the very fine balances that exist in science. 

A Tsunami, by the way, is not a climactic event.  It is caused by earth tremors.
In June I will be riding the first three stages of this year's Tour de France route for charity.  630km (394 miles) in three days, with 7800m (25,600 feet) of climbing for the William Wates Memorial Trust (https://rideleloop.org/the-charity/) which supports underprivileged young people.

Tom Birkert

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: "A Season in Dornoch" Rubenstein - Global Warming
« Reply #44 on: March 23, 2010, 12:23:20 PM »
http://scienceblogs.com/deltoid/2009/01/97_of_active_climatologists_ag.php

Just because 97% of climatologists agree that anthropogenic global warming is occurring, doesn't mean it's true.  Actually, it does.

I guess it depends on whose opinion you trust.


You can assume that anthropogenic global warming is occurring but still recognize that there are huge questions to be answered [some of which are really about policy, rather than science], like: 

(1) How much (within some degree of precision) is the globe actually warming? 

(2) How much of that warming (within some degree of precision) is caused by greenhouse gas emissions?

(3) How much worse would a warmer globe be?

(4) How much (if at all) would the proposed limitations on emissions slow down or reverse warming?

(5) How much do you have to spend to achieve the slow down/reversal?

(6) Is it ultimately worth it to spend the money on global warming vs. something else?



Good questions... Some answers:

1) No one knows, due to ever falling number of recording stations, the siting of these stations, the urban heat island effect and "corrections" made to the raw data

2) No one knows. There are theoretical effects of individual greenhouse gasses, but there are also feedbacks to be taken into account, and the influence of the varying factors within a complex, chaotic system.

3) It would be a whole lot better than a colder world. History shows than Man tends to flourish in warmer times. Colder times (and an Ice Age is coming) equate with struggles for Man. Cold kills a lot more people than heat.

4) It would have no effect whatsoever, except to take a lot of money from a lot of people while making a few very rich.

5) Billions and billions and billions of pounds (for a miniscule effect, if any).

6) No.

And with that, I'm done on this subject. I look forward to playing Dornoch and RSG throughout my life!


Garland Bayley

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: "A Season in Dornoch" Rubenstein - Global Warming
« Reply #45 on: March 23, 2010, 12:58:50 PM »
...
And with that, I'm done on this subject. I look forward to playing Dornoch and RSG throughout my life!



Tom exits, kitchen left.
"I enjoy a course where the challenges are contained WITHIN it, and recovery is part of the game  not a course where the challenge is to stay ON it." Jeff Warne

George Pazin

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: "A Season in Dornoch" Rubenstein - Global Warming
« Reply #46 on: March 23, 2010, 01:59:25 PM »
Mark, with all due respect, do Tom's scientific credentials really matter on here, a golf discussion site? If you are asking his, perhaps it would be in order to display yours as well.

Me, I'm a math guy by training, and t shirt robber baron by trade.

I'd be curious if anyone on here can seriously argue the nuts and bolts of this debate - has anyone collected the data? Analysed how it was collected? Etc? I'd submit that everyone on here is relying on someone else for his source data - heck, most of the guys John Kirk cites likely do as well. You state the Met Office shows we've had 9 of the hottest 10 summers on record. What makes you believe their data? I know I've read plenty of news reports that state global temperatures have not risen in the last 10-15 years, so it would hardly appear to be settled.

Do you believe the scientists that collected this, or for that matter, any of the scientists on either side of the debate, are above reproach?If so, I'd submit that no one on either side can call this debate anything remotely scientific. The very essence of science is questioning things. If you had polled mathematicians in the early 19th century, there surely would have been a consensus that the sum of angles in a triangle are 180 degrees (celsius, centigrade or fahrenheit? :)). Yet Riemann had the genius to question that, and an entirely new branch of geometry was born. I wonder if anyone labeled Riemann a denier?

It all comes down to who one trusts. I sure haven't seen a reason to trust the folks on the warming side of the debate - I'd argue they've given far more reasons to not be trusted - but maybe that's just me and my skeptical nature.
Big drivers and hot balls are the product of golf course design that rewards the hit one far then hit one high strategy.  Shinny showed everyone how to take care of this whole technology dilemma. - Pat Brockwell, 6/24/04

Brent Hutto

Re: "A Season in Dornoch" Rubenstein - Global Warming
« Reply #47 on: March 23, 2010, 02:16:00 PM »
It all comes down to who one trusts. I sure haven't seen a reason to trust the folks on the warming side of the debate - I'd argue they've given far more reasons to not be trusted - but maybe that's just me and my skeptical nature.

In other words, it's a discussion of politics. We're supposed to trust everything posited by those on The Right Side of the issue and trust nothing from those on The Wrong Side. Like every other issue is discussed nowadays. It's just the way things are done, there is no science about it at all.

George Pazin

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: "A Season in Dornoch" Rubenstein - Global Warming
« Reply #48 on: March 23, 2010, 02:20:33 PM »
Precisely. And we all know how fruitful and civilized the political discussions on here tend to be.

 :)
« Last Edit: March 23, 2010, 02:50:13 PM by George Pazin »
Big drivers and hot balls are the product of golf course design that rewards the hit one far then hit one high strategy.  Shinny showed everyone how to take care of this whole technology dilemma. - Pat Brockwell, 6/24/04

Brent Hutto

Re: "A Season in Dornoch" Rubenstein - Global Warming
« Reply #49 on: March 23, 2010, 02:24:20 PM »
It's like that Bruce Campbell movie where he says "Good? Bad? I'm the guy with the gun".

Disputing the scientific credentials of some guy talking about The Global Warming Issue is about like asking the guy about to shoot you whether he has a license for that gun.