How Far Do Your Tee Shots Go?

[Tim_Weiman]

A Florida golf course operator recently spent a week studying the length of 800 tee shots.  His findings were quite interesting:

Out of 800, only one player hit his tee shot more than 250 yards.

Only 30 players hit tee shots 200 yards or more.

Half failed to hit their tee shot more than 140 yards.

How representative are these numbers?  I haven’t a clue.  

[Rick Shefchik]

I've never been a really long hitter, but I used to be able to get it up to 270 when I hit it well. Now I guess 250 is my max unless it's downhill, downwind on a hard fairway.

With a competition ball, I'd probably be happy to get it past 200.

Rick

[Jim_Kennedy]

Tim,
I don't think they are representative of anything except the players who were there that week.

[Kevin_Reilly]

800 is a pretty big sample size of "average" golfers.

[Tyler Kearns]

Tim,
        As someone who comes to the golf course frequently without a tee time reserved, I play with a fairly large pool of players. Further, working in a pro shop growing up, I saw a lot of people teeing off from the first tee as I shuffled people about in the morning. Quite frankly, I am a little baffled by the stats, especially the 200-250 yard range with only 30/800 meeting that standard. This "representative" group of golfers seems to represent a lop-sidedly short hitting populace. If a similar test were taken at my home course of some 400 members, I would guarantee a much different result. Yes, the shorter drivers would still win out, but the competition would be much closer.

[TEPaul]

Not far enough to mention! Next question.

[Mike O'Neill]

251 yards.  



Just kidding. There's nothing above average about my golf game that isn't captured under the category of "score", and alas, that's not where you want to be above average.

But let's know more about this study. Were the drives required to remain in the fairway? How wide was the fairway? Probably not a lot of roll if the rough was thick, Bermuda. What are the parameters of this statistical analysis? I can think of public golf courses that I grew up playing where these numbers would absolutely "describe" the average golfer. But I would describe those golfers as thrilled to break 90 and more likely to shoot 95 and above. A lot of bogey golfers cannot hit the ball more than 220-240 yards on average.

[redanman]

Further than more than half of the players in the sample!

I, too feel that the sample is not terribly scientific.  800 at one course is not an appropriate sample to extrapolate.  However, it does suggest that the majority of the players at that course should play no more than the "white" tees.

[Jim_Kennedy]

redanman,
If you look at the numbers cited, 400 of these players should forgo the "whites" tees and hit it from the 150 yd. marker. From there they would only have a 10 yd. chip to reach the green.  

[Mike O'Neill]

I think it is true the there are a lot players that would benefit from the forward tees. Does this study lend credence to the idea of multiple tees? I believe Donald Ross would say, "yes".

[Kevin_Reilly]

800 at one course is not an appropriate sample to extrapolate.  

You're the man of science, not me, but was is so unappropriate about these 800 golfers?  Unless the course is located at a retirement community (a possibility given the results) then it would seem that a mix of 800 golfers should be a reasonably large sample.  

One flaw of the "study" might be the fact that the drives were measured off the first tee...with normal first tee jitters cutting off distance and accuracy.  Or as mentioned the turf could limit roll.  Or it could be into a headwind. But with a Bushnell it is pretty easy to measure the distances if you are sitting close to the tee.

[Tim_Weiman]

Mike O'Neill,

The conversation I had with this person was relatively brief so I didn't get many details.  My understanding is that hitting the fairway was not required to be counted.  The hole selected was nothing special in terms of fairway width.  We briefly touched on the issue of rough and he told me he didn't feel it was especially long or thick.  Also, I wondered about the people who played the course and was told they may be slightly older on average (due to the study being conducted during the week), but not significantly different than those who frequent this public course.

While I suspect we often overestimate how far many people hit the ball, I'll admit to being surprised myself.  I expected ten percent of the players to hit the ball 250 yards and at least 25 percent to be able to hit a 200 yard drive.  Apparently, not so, at least not with this group.

Jim Kennedy/Redanman:

I'm inclined to echo the comments by Kevin Reilly.  While not a "scientific" study, 800 is a fairly large sample.  Kind in mind that many national polls include only 1500-3000 people and are estimated to be +/- about 3% margin of error.

Beyond that, I would add my own personal experience watching people tee off on #1 at Ohio's busiest muni course.  At least two thirds don't hit their shot 200 yards.  Less than ten percent ever hit 250 yard shots.  Also, I wouldn't be surprised if a third failed to hit 150 yard shots.

At the risk of sounding "elitist", I would say that my private club experience is different with probably most players able to hit tee shots in the 230 yards or more range.

[Tim_Weiman]

Kevin Reilly,

I also wondered whether this was a bunch of retired guys playing the course.  The person I spoke to did say that the population might be slightly older on average, but the feeling was that, if anything, the older players were better golfers and might have even increased the average tee shot length.

The bottom line is that I think we might be brainwashed by watching the PGA Tour.  For most people, golf is very difficult and hitting 200 yard drives is about the best they can usually hope for.

[Jim_Kennedy]

Tim,
I watch about 10,000 tee shots a season from my shop. Trying to gauge the length of players from their first shot of the day is futile. First tee nerves alone would skew the results, as noted by Kevin. A better first tee survey would include mulligans.
Here is a number I am fairly sure of: 99% of golfers have a wonderful practice swing and then they morph into something unrecognizable for their real swing.

[Matt_Cohn]

I think a great deal of players, at least the men, are capable of hitting it 200-250, sometimes. As far as women, that number is much lower, it seems.

What surprises me more is how crooked people hit it! The first hole at my course in San Diego, The Meadows, is 350, downhill, with about a 60(?) yard wide corridor between bushes. Way over half miss that landing area, and of those, most miss with their second ball too. This amazes me!

[John_McMillan]

Tim,

Good topic.  I guess that most people think about distance in terms of their best drives, not of their average drives.  Of course, if a drive is downhill, downwind, and on a firm fairway, one's distance is going to improve, and a 300 yard drive in those circumstances is nice to remember, but difficult to reproduce.  

For myself, I'd guess that my average drive is about 230 yards of carry, and ends in about the 240 to 245 range.  If I try to "go" for a drive, I'd guess I have about 260 yards of carry in me, and can get to about 270 to 280 yards total, without conditions to assist me.  

[Ben Cowan-Dewar]

Matt Cohn failed to mention that he must challenge Tiger in length.

That aside, I would be surprised if those numbers are very representive.  If we are talking carry, not total distance, I think the average male under 55 could carry 200 yards.

The average good player I know carries anywhere from 240 to 310, so I would imagine this group has to be a weak sampling.

[John_McMillan]

Ben -

I would be surprised if there are more than a dozen guys this side of Tiger who can AVERAGE a carry of 310, and hold a scratch handicap (to exclude the guys who specialize in the long-drive contests).

[Tim_Weiman]

Ben Dewar,

Like I said, I don't know if this is a weak sampling.  But, I really think your comment about the "average good player" carrying 240-310 may be even more misleading.

After all, what is an "average good player?  Do you mean an 15-18 handicap?  Or would such a player be better than average?

[Ben Cowan-Dewar]

I think my previous post makes me seem oblivious to average golfers, it was poorly worded.

John,
Perhaps I exaggerated.  I was playing yesterday with a good friend who was a former long drive competitor, but I have more than a few friends who can carry close to 300.  Animals they are.  Point taken though.

Tim,
By average good player I meant the average 12 or less handicap.  Poor choice of words.

What I was saying is that good players in general that I play with carry at least 230-240, so that is why I thought the sampling seemed to be weak.  I realize that the percentage of 12 handicaps or less is small, but I think the percentage of players that can carry at least 200 has to be higher.  Just my opinion.

Matt,
What is your average carry, that amongst your friends?  I think that would be a good indicator of the longer good players.

[Matt_Cohn]

Ben,

I'll start with carry-and-roll. My average Driver distance is about 270-275. The well-hit ones are probably 285. I suppose that would make my average carry around 240-250, and a good carry around 260. Depending on the layout, I can usually count on 1 or 2 drives a round over 300.

To put this in context...with golf shoes on, I'm 5'8 and 150, and I use a 44.25" driver. Obviously, I'm playing against a lot of guys who are 6'2 and 180, who are very strong and can handle a 45" driver easier.

I'm not anything more than average length for a college player. I'm 10-20 yards shorter than the longest guy on my team (Martin Flores, who's a sophomore and has only recently started working out very much). At the Publinks last year, D.J. Trahan was hitting his 3-wood past my Driver. There are any number of examples like this. When Tiger said that college players hit it longer than Tour players, he's right!

Two things it's safe to say: 1) As far as classic courses becoming easy or obsolete, the problem will get worse. 2) The gap between average hitters and long hitters is growing. Eighteen handicappers are hitting it the same length they did 2 years ago...but I'm hitting my best teeshots 20 yards further than I hit my best ones 2 years ago. I'd say it's 10 yards from the Pro V1, 5 from working out, and 5 from my Driver.

It bothers me a lot about how the classic courses are "shrinking", and even more that we have to build 7,500 yard courses now, that make the game less fun, more expensive, and way too hard for almost everyone. I think you can see from the numbers I just wrote how much has changed just in the last few years, and how quickly this problem is progressing!

I should note...obviously, there aren't any 18 handicappers who are suffering from the classic courses becoming obsolete! This is an issue at the highest levels of competition. Ideally - without worrying about sponsorship, golf companies, etc. - I am in favor of cutting back the distance the ball can go. I'm also in favor of letting 18 handicappers use whatever balls and clubs they need to in order to score better, play quicker, and have more fun.

[Paul Richards]

With my Taylor-Made 360 Driver and my Pro V1's, the
answer is TOO FAR!!!

My short game is so bad that I won't threaten any classical
courses, but there are plenty of others who will.

It's time to roll back the ball!

[redanman]

You're the man of science, not me, but was is so unappropriate about these 800 golfers?  Unless the course is located at a retirement community (a possibility given the results) then it would seem that a mix of 800 golfers should be a reasonably large sample.  

One flaw of the "study" might be the fact that the drives were measured off the first tee...with normal first tee jitters cutting off distance and accuracy.  Or as mentioned the turf could limit roll.  Or it could be into a headwind. But with a Bushnell it is pretty easy to measure the distances if you are sitting close to the tee.

Kevin

You've outlined several appropriate criticisms very well.  The biggest complaint I have scientifically is that it is a single course and the "sample" is influenced by who plays that course and whether or not it is representative of golf as a whole.  A serious scientific sampling error.  Potentially like testing 200 people in central Africa for AIDS and extrapolating that rate of incidence  worldwide, to make a simple comparison.


Also, I kept track yesterday-to add hopefully interesting info to the poll, a combo of mostly 3-wood and some driver netted 260 carry and roll, more tee shots uphill and level, only one downhill.  Farther than when I was 25- 25 years ago, something's different, and I'm definitely NOT in better shape!  

[Tim_Weiman]

Redanman,

Did the person who did this study claim his effort was “scientific”?  No.  He simply made two claims:

a) those who play his course are fairly representative of public access golfers in Florida
b) testing 800 people over a one week period is a fairly large sample size

Besides the experience I’ve had with Ohio’s busiest muni, while living in Southern California I played Recreation Park, a very busy public course in Long Beach, many times.  Perhaps my memory has faded, but I recall a very large percentage of golfers who couldn’t hit 200 yard drives.

I wouldn’t have guessed the median drive would come out at 140 yards.  But, even if the Florida sample is off by 25%, you are still looking at half the golfing population hitting tee shots at 175 yards or less.

I’m guessing you and many other GCAers have a distorted view and underestimate how difficult golf is for most people, especially people who didn’t grow up playing the game.

Why don’t you share your own thoughts on the sample size that would be required to reach a meaningful conclusion?

Also, where do you think the results would come out?

[Jeff_Brauer]

Tim and all,

Back in my Killian and Nugent days, (1977-84) they sent us out to measure average tee shots at local country clubs as part of our design training.  The results weren't a lot different than the Florida study you mention. Statistically, the average male player in his 40-50's hit it about 185 yards.  Even with new advancements in technology, which don't help those with swing speeds under 100MPH much, I doubt that average distance has risen over 200 yards.

Bill Amick did a similar study, and I think he clocked the average club player at 207 yards.

As to the probably too personal question about my own distance, the Florida aspect intrigued me, as I was playing down there a few weeks ago.  Just before leaving, I played my home course and had most tee shots in the 250 range, with a few up to 275.  In Florida, humid,  fairways overseeded with rye, and near sea level, my shots were a more typical 225, with a bomb going 250, at best. I got back home, and my distance went back up.  

I guess I was surprised at the difference in distance by outside factors.  Of course, I wasn't swinging particularly well in Florida.  In fact, I moved about everything but my bowels on most swings, and sometimes, even those!