Pat,
As always, you make a lot of sense. What I feel is going on, and will continue to occur in the US metro areas, is that the top clubs will slowly but surley force the lesser clubs to fold, be merged, or operate on a level that is not equivilant to the current private club model.
Assuming that the clubhouse is already built and paid for and the club is not mired in debt, I do not think the "restaurant loss" is a big issue. So much of that loss is depreciation, and having access to decent food and friendly faces is a cost that I am willing to pay for in my dues.
What I really see going on is that the pool of potential new clubs members will continue to shrink for the next ten years and not increase until current 15-35 year olds (baby-boomers kids) reach their 40's, and only IF they have the financial means to pay a big initiation fee. I can't forecast the collective wealth of these kids, but it is likely that FAR fewer will have the cash to join a country club.
For the next ten years, the relatively few new club joiners are going to make choices based upon quality of the golf course (assuming adequate food an decent amenities.) So I see a club like MR always being able to maintain a full membership, but can see no way your neighbors can. In my area, I know that Hackensack, Ridgewood and others will remain solid, but I just don't see how certain courses will come close to maintaining full memberships AND have top notch golf course conditions. Potential new members will make silent choices and opt for the top clubs. Second tier clubs will make due, but the gap will widen. Make no doubt that ALL top clubs benifit greatly by the influx of new initiation fees. A top club probably takes in $250,000 to $750,000 in new fees each year, re-invests that in the golf course and equipment, widening the gap in the golfing experience.
What I think makes sense but will likely NEVER happen, is mergers between clubs. Members would have access to two courses, eliminate fine dining at one of the restaurants (but keep it available for profitable private functions) and rely upon one set of managers to run two courses. There are many potential efficiencies if you play that out: one superintendent, one GM, etc. But I see no way that membership of Top Club A will accept the idea of members from Lesser Club B "cluttering up" course A... In your case, I think you could take course B and make a GREAT 27 hole par 3 course...