[Kyle Harris]

Where will the golf industry be in 10 years?

Where has the golf industry come from 10 years ago?

Apart from equipment what big changes are going to come in the next 10 years, and in retrospect, what where the major changes that shaped the last decade?

What assumptions about the golf industry made 10 years ago have proven invalid? What assumptions about the industry that we make now will prove to be invalid?

What is golf's black swan?

[Kyle Harris]

I'll kick this off too.

I think many developers in 1999 assumed golf could be a luxury item - in other words, possessing the item is what gave the item value.

The problem? I doubt very few daily fee golfers felt they "possessed" the golf course when they played it - and the experience of playing by itself was not worth the cost. I'm not sure what I can conclude about many of the private clubs built in the last 10 years, since a place like Lookaway is still doing very well. But I think it definitely is a worthy conclusion for the old CCFAD model.

[Mac Plumart]

Kyle...

I love the topic and I am very interested to hear some feedback and discussion...but I've only been playing golf/interested in golf for about 2 years...so I can't comment on the past ten years stuff.

But I will be reading whatever is said.

Great topic!!

[Kyle Harris]

Kyle...

I love the topic and I am very interested to hear some feedback and discussion...but I've only been playing golf/interested in golf for about 2 years...so I can't comment on the past ten years stuff.

But I will be reading whatever is said.

Great topic!!

Mac,

I have a few more thoughts. One for the turfheads.

How will the ultimate Breadbasketing of Chlorothalanil (Daconil) affect maintenance?

What other pesticides could be on the chopping block?

[Tom_Doak]

Kyle:

I've just been in The Netherlands for a week and pretty much ALL pesticides are banned on golf courses there, and have been for several years.  That's a trend I'm sure you will see more of by 2020, although it's hard to predict how quickly the movement might be.

The main effect of the pesticide ban seems to be their lack of a good solution to grub control -- lots of places in the fairways where the birds have picked an area bare.  Until I saw it, I hadn't thought about that as an issue on American courses.

Predicting the future is generally a waste of time, though ... better to get to work to make the future what you want it to be.

[Mike_Young]

Kyle,
I agree with TD.....no need to predict the future...
But will say this....golf has to have a market and how we devlop that market will determine golf in 2020....golf needs an Ipod....

[Kyle Harris]

Predicting the future is only a waste of time for those with the inertia to carry them through it.

From my view, and those around my age - the future is where we are still spending the preponderance of life.

Tom's statement: "Until I saw it, I hadn't thought about that as an issue on American courses." Is exactly why considering these things are NOT a waste of time. For a lot of people, it takes a problem occurring to actually enter the radar. I'm trying to anticipate and plan to overcome.

Mike's statement about golf's market is where I hope the discussion leads. What is golf's iPod?

[John Moore II]

I think rounds will be cheaper than today when compared to cost of other things. Golf courses will need to find ways to reduce operating costs in the midst of a economic downturn. The amount of golfers in general will continue to decrease because of other commitments that people have. There must be something done to grow the game from the bottom up, otherwise, these golfers will be permanently lost. And somehow we must find a way to speed up the pace of play, it continues to get slower (a guy I work with said it took him 6 1/2 hours to play a couple of Sunday's ago) and if that does not stop, even more people will be driven from the game. (As much as I love to play golf, if rounds start taking 6 hours, I'm quitting)

The golf industry must find a way to answer these questions and fix them or we will continue to lose golfers and money.

[Sean_A]

I think rounds will be cheaper than today when compared to cost of other things. Golf courses will need to find ways to reduce operating costs in the midst of a economic downturn. The amount of golfers in general will continue to decrease because of other commitments that people have. There must be something done to grow the game from the bottom up, otherwise, these golfers will be permanently lost. And somehow we must find a way to speed up the pace of play, it continues to get slower (a guy I work with said it took him 6 1/2 hours to play a couple of Sunday's ago) and if that does not stop, even more people will be driven from the game. (As much as I love to play golf, if rounds start taking 6 hours, I'm quitting)

The golf industry must find a way to answer these questions and fix them or we will continue to lose golfers and money.

John

If you look at the GD Best Of thread there doesn't seem to be much of a trend toward making golf more affordable.  I don't know how these high fees continue to be paid and I thank my lucky stars I live in England. 

Ciao

[John Moore II]

Sean-At the upper end of the market, there never is a need to become more affordable. The key is to look at the middle and lower end of the market. That is where most of the money is spent. And I think in those areas, there are more places looking to save as much money as possible in maintenance costs and in the case of new operators, construction costs. But I am not sure if it is trending enough.

[Sean_A]

Sean-At the upper end of the market, there never is a need to become more affordable. The key is to look at the middle and lower end of the market. That is where most of the money is spent. And I think in those areas, there are more places looking to save as much money as possible in maintenance costs and in the case of new operators, construction costs. But I am not sure if it is trending enough.

John

I think that is part of my statement.  How come affordable courses aren't winning "best of" when this is all folks in the industry talk about?  Its almost as if people are really saying all the right things, but few want to be the ones to practice it.  Sure, places are looking to cut operating costs to preserve any semblence of a profit margin, but this hasn't really had the effect of lowering prices so far as I can tell - unless we are talking about the desperado situation.  Mind you, while I haven't really seen prices drop, I have long been amazed at how constant golf fees have been in Michigan these past 10 years while they seem to have rocketed in many other places.  This is a very good indicator that it ain't a business to be investing in if you have want to invest in Michigan. 

Ciao

[John Moore II]

Sean-At the upper end of the market, there never is a need to become more affordable. The key is to look at the middle and lower end of the market. That is where most of the money is spent. And I think in those areas, there are more places looking to save as much money as possible in maintenance costs and in the case of new operators, construction costs. But I am not sure if it is trending enough.

John

I think that is part of my statement.  How come affordable courses aren't winning "best of" when this is all folks in the industry talk about?  Its almost as if people are really saying all the right things, but few want to be the ones to practice it.  Sure, places are looking to cut operating costs to preserve any semblence of a profit margin, but this hasn't really had the effect of lowering prices so far as I can tell - unless we are talking about the desperado situation.  Mind you, while I haven't really seen prices drop, I have long been amazed at how constant golf fees have been in Michigan these past 10 years while they seem to have rocketed in many other places.  This is a very good indicator that it ain't a business to be investing in if you have want to invest in Michigan. 

Ciao

Affordable courses aren't winning 'Best New' awards because they either aren't the best, can't throw out enough money to advertise enough to get people to come play or a combination of both. The courses that are opening in the middle of the pack don't try to compete for these 'Best New' awards, they just want to open up and be profitable.

[David_Tepper]

One item that has not been mentioned yet is the cost and availability of water for irrigation. It is hard to imagine water will be either more available and less expensive. I have every expectation it will be less available and more, perhaps much more, expensive.

I expect the use of re-cycled water will become commonplace  Turf & grasses that need less water will continue to be developed and more widely used. 

[Mike_Young]

Sean-At the upper end of the market, there never is a need to become more affordable. The key is to look at the middle and lower end of the market. That is where most of the money is spent. And I think in those areas, there are more places looking to save as much money as possible in maintenance costs and in the case of new operators, construction costs. But I am not sure if it is trending enough.

John

I think that is part of my statement.  How come affordable courses aren't winning "best of" when this is all folks in the industry talk about?  Its almost as if people are really saying all the right things, but few want to be the ones to practice it.  Sure, places are looking to cut operating costs to preserve any semblence of a profit margin, but this hasn't really had the effect of lowering prices so far as I can tell - unless we are talking about the desperado situation.  Mind you, while I haven't really seen prices drop, I have long been amazed at how constant golf fees have been in Michigan these past 10 years while they seem to have rocketed in many other places.  This is a very good indicator that it ain't a business to be investing in if you have want to invest in Michigan. 

Ciao

Let's take baseball.......can any of you name me a baseball field in Athens, GA?  Nope.....we start with Little League and we develop a product that allows kids to develop as players..(none of these are "best new ballparks either)..the fields are no where near the fields of college teams, minor league teams and especially the major league parks....grass is a different height....mowed differently and not constructed the same......and the overall ball park is another issue....you think we could support big league parks at more than a few locations....yet we try the same with golf courses.....

Oh well.....

[Jaeger Kovich]

What about paspalum?... Do you think there will be more courses built with it and/or courses converting to it?

I had a great first experience with it at Kiawah. I thought it made for a wonderful surface to put on. It was fast, although you don't get huge breaks with it. It seemed to resist ball marks. And of course you can use recycled brackish water.

[Bill_McBride]

I think it's highly unlikely real estate development will be the raison d'etre for golf development.

It therefore seems imperative that golf development be aimed toward those sectors that can afford it - whether the courses are aimed at the high end and therefore have some sort of cachet, remoteness or whatever, or aimed at the lowest price points.  Rustic Canyon still seems to be a model of affordable design and construction.

As David Tepper points out, water resources will be severely restricted from everything I've read, and turf management will need to be based on low water and low chemical inputs.  It's going to be daunting but rewarding for those who can solve the sometimes contracictory mandates.

[Adam Clayman]

A big part of the problem I see lies in the use of the term, or thinking the different segments of golf, make up an industry.

One could argue the differing segments might even be at odds against each other, and, that could be why the sport is in such a pickle, nowadays.

Housing developments, more than not, begat crap courses. I & B makers pushed the envelope on technology causing the need for more and expensive ground. Costing course developers excessive start up costs. Architects needed to cover their own asses by allowing for more and more separation in a lame attempt to avoid litigation. Once again creating more costly and often inferior golfing experiences because of it.

With a little more thought, I bet we all could come up with some more examples where the "industry" is at odds with itself.

As for the Netherlands banning all chemicals, does anyone think the Chinese will be as environmentally responsible? After all, in the next ten years China appears to be the real growth spot for the sport. Isn't it?

[Sean_A]

Sean-At the upper end of the market, there never is a need to become more affordable. The key is to look at the middle and lower end of the market. That is where most of the money is spent. And I think in those areas, there are more places looking to save as much money as possible in maintenance costs and in the case of new operators, construction costs. But I am not sure if it is trending enough.

John

I think that is part of my statement.  How come affordable courses aren't winning "best of" when this is all folks in the industry talk about?  Its almost as if people are really saying all the right things, but few want to be the ones to practice it.  Sure, places are looking to cut operating costs to preserve any semblence of a profit margin, but this hasn't really had the effect of lowering prices so far as I can tell - unless we are talking about the desperado situation.  Mind you, while I haven't really seen prices drop, I have long been amazed at how constant golf fees have been in Michigan these past 10 years while they seem to have rocketed in many other places.  This is a very good indicator that it ain't a business to be investing in if you have want to invest in Michigan. 

Ciao

Affordable courses aren't winning 'Best New' awards because they either aren't the best, can't throw out enough money to advertise enough to get people to come play or a combination of both. The courses that are opening in the middle of the pack don't try to compete for these 'Best New' awards, they just want to open up and be profitable.

John

All courses want to open up and be profitable, its just there are different ways to go about it.  What I am driving at is I am surprised there are still these high end places opening up when the industry of golf is struggling. 

Ciao 

[John Moore II]

Sean-At the upper end of the market, there never is a need to become more affordable. The key is to look at the middle and lower end of the market. That is where most of the money is spent. And I think in those areas, there are more places looking to save as much money as possible in maintenance costs and in the case of new operators, construction costs. But I am not sure if it is trending enough.

John

I think that is part of my statement.  How come affordable courses aren't winning "best of" when this is all folks in the industry talk about?  Its almost as if people are really saying all the right things, but few want to be the ones to practice it.  Sure, places are looking to cut operating costs to preserve any semblence of a profit margin, but this hasn't really had the effect of lowering prices so far as I can tell - unless we are talking about the desperado situation.  Mind you, while I haven't really seen prices drop, I have long been amazed at how constant golf fees have been in Michigan these past 10 years while they seem to have rocketed in many other places.  This is a very good indicator that it ain't a business to be investing in if you have want to invest in Michigan. 

Ciao

Affordable courses aren't winning 'Best New' awards because they either aren't the best, can't throw out enough money to advertise enough to get people to come play or a combination of both. The courses that are opening in the middle of the pack don't try to compete for these 'Best New' awards, they just want to open up and be profitable.

John

All courses want to open up and be profitable, its just there are different ways to go about it.  What I am driving at is I am surprised there are still these high end places opening up when the industry of golf is struggling. 

Ciao 

OK Sean, I see what you are getting at. But you have to think that most of the courses opening today were started a few years ago, at least the initial planning/funding. Take a course like Hasentree in Raleigh, NC. They finished like 2nd in GD's Best New Private Category last year and yet the entire real estate development around the course is in foreclosure (or was last time I heard, they may not be now, my info is 6ish months old) and I'm not sure how the course is doing, but based on some people I know who have tried to get jobs there, they run on a small staff and still can't really keep busy.

Another example is Forest Creek CC in Pinehurst. I have been told by a few people that the golf course itself is not really a money maker, its really just a loss-leader for the property. One member told me that once the club becomes member-owned he expects either the dues to go up substantially or the quality of the course to drop. How many other high end new courses do you expect are in this same boat??

(And did I also hear right from a former staff member of Liberty National that they are really suffering as far as membership numbers go?)

I think these high end courses either have backers with huge sums of money or they are indebted pretty bad.

[Rob Rigg]

Depending on the speed of the economic recovery and the incredibly rapid development of technology we could see an effort to create or remodel courses more for the hoi poloi than the pros.

I have a dream of a walkers course that is 6,500 yards or less, minimally irrigated, strategic, conducive to fast rounds, and semi-private - more of a GBI model - the course would also be stand alone with no ties to RE or part of a larger "country club" complex.

Not sure if we will ever get there in the US but I think there will be some sort of swing back to "basic" and "minimalist" that is affordable and hopefully strategic and interesting from a GCA perspective.

I almost puked when I saw the "Best New" for 2009 and saw so many courses with a price tag near or above $100k. Without RE opportunities, is that really where the future is for the game? I hope not.

[Dan Herrmann]

1. I think you'll see a very rapid movement to significantly decrease water use.

2. Remote sensing of turf conditions will be commonplace.

3. Interest in golf in 2020 will be about where it is today.

4. The golf ball will have been rolled back for "the good of the game"

5. Holding the US Open and US Women's Open at the same venue will become common.

6. China will give the world a major championship winner.

7. New golf course development will be centered in Asia (duh!)

The black swan?  Golf will be finally be thought of as "not harmful to the environment", especially if H2O and chemical use decreases.

[Jason Topp]

I expect that

- the number of rounds played will remain flat. 
- 15-25% of private clubs will cease to exist.  Most will go public.
- Golf clubs (drivers, irons etc.) will become more of a commodity product as performance advantages between clubs continue to diminish.
- Clubs will increasingly cease to pay premium salaries to head professionals
- We will continue to see some outstanding designs by premium architects
- the ball will not be rolled back

I hope that:

-- The game will become more affordable
-- We figure out ways to introduce kids to the game and encourage participation regardless of whether they want to compete
-- We see firm and fast courses that are more brown

 

[George Pazin]

The black swan?  Golf will be finally be thought of as "not harmful to the environment", especially if H2O and chemical use decreases.

Sorry, Dan, I think you're an optimist, this will never happen. Ever. Too many folks on one side of the balance.

[Dan Herrmann]

George, You're probably right, but Kyle was looking for a Black Swan

[Kyle Harris]

George, You're probably right, but Kyle was looking for a Black Swan

In terms of reaching your goals, Dan - what do you think needs to happen in the public eye?

I think the biggest problem golf has against it is that it needs a relatively large footprint.

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