[Michael Dugger]

I've been pondering how deep this downturn in the economy is going to impact golf course architecture.

How will our "Great Recession" resemble the Great Depression?
How many golf courses will close?
How many bunkers will be grassed over?
Will a "Recession" architect like Perry Maxwell emerge?

or is it all just a temporary thing?
 

[Mike_Young]

While I don't know all the specifics of the types of courses designed and built during or before the Great Depression ...I would assume most to be private and in no way related to housing....so this time it is a little different but probably in a worse way....
If a developer is not selling lots or homes he could care less about the golf operation..therefore many of those will not open again....and there is not much value in them for the banks....presently we are seeing guys trying to buy some of these projects for as low as 25 cents on the dollar and they think they have made a great deal but truth is they can't make it work....no golfers in the area and a "built in" maintenance cost that is hard to reduce enough to matter...as well as clubhouse cost....
I visited a course taken over by a management company last week where they intend to remove over 5 acres of 8 acres of bunker..a signature layout but they don't want to ask the signature....there will be a lot of that....and there will be a lot of irrigation reduction where it can be done....
But it seems to me that so many projects of the last 25 years will not allow fairway width reduction etc as was possible in older courses where fairways were never shaped....
I think we will see just as much change and closure of clubhouses....many will need to be burned or have one floor closed etc....

[Bill_McBride]

While I don't know all the specifics of the types of courses designed and built during or before the Great Depression ...I would assume most to be private and in no way related to housing....so this time it is a little different but probably in a worse way....
If a developer is not selling lots or homes he could care less about the golf operation..therefore many of those will not open again....and there is not much value in them for the banks....presently we are seeing guys trying to buy some of these projects for as low as 25 cents on the dollar and they think they have made a great deal but truth is they can't make it work....no golfers in the area and a "built in" maintenance cost that is hard to reduce enough to matter...as well as clubhouse cost....
I visited a course taken over by a management company last week where they intend to remove over 5 acres of 8 acres of bunker..a signature layout but they don't want to ask the signature....there will be a lot of that....and there will be a lot of irrigation reduction where it can be done....
But it seems to me that so many projects of the last 25 years will not allow fairway width reduction etc as was possible in older courses where fairways were never shaped....
I think we will see just as much change and closure of clubhouses....many will need to be burned or have one floor closed etc....

Mike, why don't you think fairways will be narrowed?

We've seen fairways nibbled at over the years by supers trying to cut down on labor to mow the fairways, a yard here, a yard there, first thing you know it's single file.

[Mike_Young]

Bill,
I guess you are right ...they could narrow fairways but so many have been specifically shaped whereby they may start 175 yards out etc and features along the perimeters have been shaped in...so reducing width will be interesting IMO....and so many of the cartpaths were integrated into modern designs"hidden" etc.....where on most of the lder courses they came afterwards....thus the new cartpaths will be much further from the reduced fairways requiring maintenance of the area between.....I think

[archie_struthers]

 

think we are in for long dark period ,  so enjoy the good stuff and try to see as much as you can perhaps a great course or two will be built in China .....but there's not much demand for old or new product right now

still lots of fall out in the golf course business....some really nice courses are selling cheap and still won't be good buys for their new owners .....I think the strong will survive and prosper  but lots of marginally successful courses are going to go away forever

sorry  to say

[Steve Okula]

This is an important topic. If a golf course fails financially, due to high, built-in maintenance costs, should that be considered a fatal flaw on the part of the architect? For example, in the current Strantz thread, it is mentioned that a couple of his designs are in trouble. Does that reflect on the worth of his designs?

Are GCA's considering this in present and future designs? (Presuming they have any.) Are they designing courses that might be maintained in a "boom" mode and a "survival" mode?

And beyond courses going under, how many GCA's will be forced out of business in the next few years? How many can survive for how long on renovations and remodeling, given there's practically no new development? Are renovations and remodelling the architectural equivalent of eating out of a dumpster?

[Lou_Duran]

Steve,

I could never fault an architect for building what his clients want.  The developer's business plan may have been fatally flawed, but even that may not be the case.  Things change and even the most visionary make mistakes.  As long as the developer and his financiers take the hit, it is as it should be (I am a big believer in creative destruction as a progressive force).

Your questions are very topical and worthy of serious consideration.  I suspect that the current economic malaise will have a positive change in gca that perhaps will be longlasting.  Prudent organizations always considered sustainability as a cornerstone strategic principle.  During my time in corporate financial management with one of the best, Frito-Lay, being the low-cost producer of quality products was always in the forefront.  It allowed the company to remain competitive and innovative even during difficult times.

On the positive side, there will be opportunities to recapitalize properties with a structure that makes economic sense.  The golf consumer today has some wonderful opportunities.  The restructure of the industry and the future of golf as we know it will be largely dependent on the extent that government fiscal and monetary policy allows the private sector to achieve profitability, provide jobs, and generate income covering beyond basic needs.  If discretionary income is constrained, so will the prospects of the game we love.

[Tony Ristola]

I've been emailing with an old buddy who has worked for a number of the big guys; architects, builders, and developers. He's been around. His take is pretty gloomy.

Reader's Digest Version: Too many expensive courses, which includes building and maintenance, and courses that were too difficult, and not fun enough.

I have no crystal ball except to say investors should look at running their businesses like it is already on the ropes. Then there is a Margin-for-Error. It seems too many went all-in, and the cards didn't land.

What does this shake-out say about Feasibility Studies?

And as usual... I agree with Lou.

.

[Carl Rogers]

Part of the clubhouse issue for me is the selling of clubs and balls in the pro shop.   I have a hard time understanding the rationale for this as the shop can not compete with the chains in terms of selection or price.

I have seen a couple of modest clubhouses on very modest courses that combine the shop and the food in the same spot which makes sense to me because on a Tuesaday afternoon it takes only one person to run it all.

On this site, I try to observe a certain consensus that encompasses a range for topics from economics (cost and revenue), maintenance, playability to the environmental.  To summarize:
-A course that takes a more casual approach to bunker maintenance
-No real pre-occupation with mowing lines, lots of scruffier edges, variable turfgrass heights outside of the 'middle' closely mowed areas through the green
-Small simple clubhouse, with little in the way of formal program (change your shoes in the parking lot)
-Vending machines in various spots in lieu of cart girls?
-No carts at all
-Close the course on Mondays to give the course and personnel a breather

[Tom_Doak]

What does this shake-out say about Feasibility Studies?

Tony:

The only feasibility study I've ever heard of which recommended NOT building a course was the one for Bandon Dunes.

[Mac Plumart]

Tom...

That is very funny!!!

Assumptions will drive the study, right?  Who is making the assumption and why, might be a key ingredient.

[Adrian_Stiff]

What does this shake-out say about Feasibility Studies?

Tony:

The only feasibility study I've ever heard of which recommended NOT building a course was the one for Bandon Dunes.

Probably every normal parameter that gets used Bandon fails. What the computer fails to understand is the power of the land.

[Craig Sweet]

I wonder how the problems in Dubai are impacting the development Tiger is working on?

[Sean_A]

What does this shake-out say about Feasibility Studies?

Tony:

The only feasibility study I've ever heard of which recommended NOT building a course was the one for Bandon Dunes.

We have to remember that Bandon is still a young pup and anything can happen.  I am not saying anything will or should happen to Bandon, only that many a giant has taken a fall.

Ciao

[Tom_Doak]

Sean:

Play is well down in Bandon, too.  But it isn't going to fail, unless the whole economy falls another 50% or more and no "destination" course can make it at all.  With the fescue fairways it would be easy to cut way back on maintenance if the traffic is minimal.

[Jeff_Brauer]

I think Tiger's deal had slowed way down anyway.

As to Feasibility studies, they got better over the years.  When I sat in presentations in the last few years, some of the companies doing them were almost apologetic about the methods they used in the early years. I recall doing one myself in 1984 usng the then NGF benchmark of 1 Golf Course for every 50K people. I recalll I had to subtract the private club players from the population total, and expand it a few more miles along the major highways to get to that ratio and say "yes" it could be done. 

I am sure those guys doing them had the same pressure and a few were well known for writing what the owner wanted to hear.    Given there have been a few lawsuits over flawed feasibility studies (despite most including a zillion disclaimers) I suspect the pressure is on the other way, to say "no."  I was looking into a feasibility proposal recentlyand told the business guy I was with that the easiest money he could ever make was to do a boilerplate study, say close the course, and go on with a hefty profit.

Of course, one bit of advice I got years ago was to never say yes and never say no.....say "yes, if......"

[Jim Nugent]

What does this shake-out say about Feasibility Studies?

They depend on lots of economic projections and assumptions.  Most of which fail miserably at big economic turning points, such as recesssions/depressions. 

Play is well down in Bandon, too.  But it isn't going to fail, unless the whole economy falls another 50% or more and no "destination" course can make it at all.

I bet the economy has not stopped falling.  Not by a long shot.  Also that all destination golf courses are in peril over the next several years. 

[Steve Kline]

Tom - don't discount too much the economy falling another 50%. As a student of economics (not the ridiculous Keynesian kind but the Austrian kind) I think this is fairly likely to happen. It could happen any time from 2010-2020. Most people don't have the faintest understanding of how the monetary system or works or what we are in store for.

As for GCA, it seems to me many courses were built over the past three decades for people that won't be playing golf as much in the future due to contracting incomes. These not so avid golfers liked flash (water falls, water hazards, big clubhouses - even at public facilities, wall-to-wall green, no weeds, length, etc.). But flash will not be sustainable going forward. Courses (like the ones everyone here wants to play at) that were built with an eye to serious golfers (not necessarily good ones) will do better because serious golfers will continue to find a way to adjust their spending habits so that they can still play golf. Out of the way places (like Bandon) may struggle because while the serious golfer loves it it is too expensive and hard to get to. Overall this could be very good for the GCA purists.

[Jud_T]

Steve,

"Fairly likely" to drop another 50% is a bit strong.  I'd say the central tendancy is that we limp along at this low level of activity for quite a while, with the normal ups and downs. I'd put the odds of the economy dropping an additional 50% at closer to a 10% probablility..

[Rick Sides]

Great question!  You have to wonder if the people who once golfed, but don't golf anymore because they dropped their memberships of refused to pay the high daily fees some courses were asking will come back later.  Once people get use to living without something, they often don't go back to it later because they have changed their lifestyles. It reminds me of the pro basketball team we have here, the Philadelphia Sixers.  Attendance is drastically down and people just don't go watch basketball here anymore.  A radio station took a survey asking fans if they cared if the team folded and the majority said they could care less- people have gotten use to a new lifestyle.

[Tom_Doak]

Steve / Jim:

Believe me, I understand that the economy could fall another 50% or more.  My parents were both born in 1918 and grew up in the heart of the Great Depression ... I've heard those stories a million times.  [Plus my dad had a Ph.D. in [ag] economics, so I know a little bit about that subject.]  I certainly do not think we are immune from going back to Hard Times, given the kind of business and political leadership we've come to expect over the last 10-15 years.

Still, if you're going to speculate that a place like Bandon could fail, it's just one more step to speculating that the whole world is going to fail -- and what's the point of that?

My point about Bandon Dunes was that those courses don't have to be $200 golf courses in order to survive.  In fact, I would think they could survive as $50 or $75 golf courses if they had to.

[Jud_T]

If Bandon goes under then we've got much bigger problems then the loss of a couple of great golf courses...This is simply the best golf resort destination for the money in the world at this point.  Pebble, Pinehurst and Kohler pale in comparison, and a nice trip to St. Andrews will set you back at least double the amount of money.

[Adrian_Stiff]

I still maintain if things get real bad that it will be the 'better' golf courses that are likey to fail and by better I mean the better quality, more expensive. There X's are more and they need to pull in the $£$£$£ a real tough economy will see lesser people with the money to afford that quality or those people that can afford will be heads of business's where they now need to concentrate their efforts in order to keep their buisness's in good order. The 'poorer' courses are affordable by more, have less to fall. The probem with destination courses is that it costs a lot get to these places, you can discount the g/fee but the airfares, lodgings etc still cost. We talked about going to Bandon v South Carolina..the vote went 15-1 to go to SC, Bandon was four times the price, probably not as good weather, no carts and took an absolute age to get too. That was about a year ago, with the economy now 4 are going to SC. Bandon wont ever get much traffic from the UK because we dont travel far for anything and thats a big shame.
On the plus side I think things are not as bad as they were and the phone is fairy busy for us with 2010 bookings, that seems to be a fair pattern with others.

[Jud_T]

Adrian,

Better and more expensive don't necessarily go hand in hand...While certainly Bandon cannot compete with Myrtle Beach on price, it is the best value of the higher end resorts in the states, with better golf at better prices.  And why anyone from G, B & I would ever need to come to the states for a golf trip, particularly if travel cost is the issue is beyond me...

[Patrick_Mucci]

Adrian,

I feel just the opposite with respect to the "better" or higher quality course failing.

Those clubs with "THE" quality product will survive.

I don't see the Pine Valley's and Seminoles of the world going under.

I don't know why you associate better/quality courses with expensive courses.
Some of those better/quality courses are fairly inexpensive to belong to.
It's getting in that's the difficult part, not paying the annual dues.

Newer clubs, where the acquisition and construction costs were high, are at risk, but, the older, better/quality clubs will survive.

Location and demographics have a lot to do with survival, but, again, if the quality of the product is outstanding, those private clubs will survive.

I think destination resorts and destination private golf clubs will experience a good deal of difficulty.

I love Bandon Dunes as I did Pinehurst many years ago, but, it's remote and difficult to get to.
I certainly hope it continues and prospers.

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