[George Pazin]

I had a short talk with a friend yesterday and he said, what do you think is wrong with Tiger?

My response:

I think Tiger is not really in game shape yet, and the additional burdens major championship golf place on the golfer, as opposed to more normal Tour stops such as Bay Hill, Muirfield Village, Congressional (even though they are upper echelon Tour stops), highlight the fine line between being a very good golfer and being a golfer truly in command of his game. Major championship golf, through a combination of superior architecture and course setups that accentuate, or maybe magnify, said architecture, produce the added strain that causes problems not necessarily present at normal Tour stops.

My friend thought I was crazy.

An analogy that illustrates my thinking (however flawed):

If you give 2 moderately intelligent people tests designed for 5th graders, you probably won't get a lot of differentiation between the 2. Make the test a lot harder and any differences become apparent.

Do you agree with my friend?

If my hypothesis is correct, is there anything to be learned from Tiger's play this year?

Or does it simply illustrate the fickle nature of golf?

[Tom Huckaby]

I think it just illustrates the fickle nature of golf; and that it's really too soon to tell.  The man came off a pretty serious injury and it seems to me that is far more of the story than any other part.

But also the man won at Congressional, and that posed a more difficult test that Turnberry Ailsa is.  I could say the same about Bay Hill and Muirfield Village.  None was set up easy; heck each was pretty close to major champioship standard.  That's among the reasons Tiger chooses to play in those.

Bethpage he really got a bad weather break and stilll did pretty damn well.  Augusta, heck he wasn't quite ready yet after being gone so long.

So OK, if this keeps going on for another year or two, then your hypothesis may have merit.  Right now it's just too soon to tell.

[Kalen Braley]

George,

I hear these things from time to time, but the data never seems to back it up.  Since coming back from the injury this year, so far Tiger has:

3 wins
8 top 10s
And only one finish outside of the top 10...17th place.

Thats 9 events, no finish worse than 17th, all the rest in top 10...and in his previous two majors he's finished 6th in each one.

Thats a career year for pretty much anyone esle on Tour and we're only half done with 2009. I just don't buy that Tiger is off-form or anything like that. 

[Phil Benedict]

I would set aside the Masters because his game wasn't ready.  Sure he won Bay Hill, but it was because he had only 102 putts.

His game was ready for Bethpage but he got a bad break with the weather and didn't putt well, something which even he can't overcome.

This week is a bit of a shock considering how great he looked at Congressional.  But I don't see how you can attribute it to the architecture, since he failed to break par yesterday when 50 other guys did.  His game went South between Congressional and Turnberry.

If I had to venture a guess I'd say he's pressing a little at the major after having glimpsed his golfing mortality when he hurt his knee.  It may look like he's got all the time in the world to pass Jack but somewhere in the back of his mind he might feel a bit rushed.  

[Brian_Ewen]

Is it not strange Hank Haney has not travelled with him this week ?

[PThomas]

Tigers problem is that he has set the bar so high for himself!

[Tim Taylor]

Tiger's problem this week is the same as every amateur hack out there - weak tee shots headed right.

FORE!

Tim

[Kalen Braley]

I'm still waiting for someone to give me one reason why we should think he's anything short of being in top form?

And don't say one missed cut because you know who, whom many on this site still think is the games best ever missed far more cuts in Majors than Tiger ever has...by miles!

If 8 top 10's, and 3 wins  in 9 starts is "underperforming" to you, then you need to get your head examined!!   

[George Pazin]

I'm still waiting for someone to give me one reason why we should think he's anything short of being in top form?

And don't say one missed cut because you know who, whom many on this site still think is the games best ever missed far more cuts in Majors than Tiger ever has...by miles!

If 8 top 10's, and 3 wins  in 9 starts is "underperforming" to you, then you need to get your head examined!!   

One missed cut! He's underperforming!

Seriously, does it seem like he has been on top of his game in any of the 3 majors? It looks like he's fighting his game.

Contrast that with his other wins and strong performances - there never looked like there was any doubt he would win. Fwiw, I think you can tell if Tiger's going to win a major on Thursday. If he looks solidly balanced and in command, that's all she wrote. If he doesn't, his short game is so good he usually still contends, but unlike normal events, he doesn't pull those out.

What I'm asking is (and this obviously assumes you agree he is underperforming in the majors), is it the architecture? The pressure of the major? The course setups for majors?

[Phil Benedict]

I'm still waiting for someone to give me one reason why we should think he's anything short of being in top form?

And don't say one missed cut because you know who, whom many on this site still think is the games best ever missed far more cuts in Majors than Tiger ever has...by miles!

If 8 top 10's, and 3 wins  in 9 starts is "underperforming" to you, then you need to get your head examined!!   

Kalen,

His record in regular tour medal play events is 3 wins in 5 starts.  His record in majors is 0 for 3, with a missed cut.  He has clearly underperformed his regular tour performance in the majors.

[George Pazin]

Thanks, Phil, that was much clearer than anything I said!

[Kalen Braley]

George,

He contended in his previous two majors, and was right there with a chance to win in both of em, on Sunday.  So I'm not sure how he underperfomed in those.  Sure he missed the cut today, but everyone is human, everyone has a bad tourney, even Tiger.

As for the architecture, I'm not sure how it ties in because as Huck pointed out....it can be argued that at least Congressional was a far more difficult golf course and test for him.  As for pressure?  Cmon do you really think Tiger feels extra pressure after all the pressure cookers he's been thru for the last 10 years on tour.  Its likely no more pressure than any other event he enters where he really really wants to win.

[Mark Smolens]

I guess I don't see anything about the "architecture" of Turnberry that provides any explanation for Mr. Woods' lack of success.  It is almost reassuring to see that the game can remain a mystery, at least at times, to someone of his ability.  I do think that the level of pressure -- both external, and probably more importantly internal -- that Woods faces in the majors, as opposed to the regular tour events, is probably instructive.  Though I was watching today on my computer at work (and not billing the time!) and not on the television, I thought his swing looked balanced and solid through the first seven holes. . . and then that rhythm somehow disappeared.  The tee shot on 10?  My gosh I have that shot.

[Tom Huckaby]

What I'm asking is (and this obviously assumes you agree he is underperforming in the majors), is it the architecture? The pressure of the major? The course setups for majors?

I agree he is underperforming in majors so far this year, relative to his play in other tour events.  As Phil just listed, the data surely supports that..

I just also think there are valid explanations for this in two of the majors which have nothing to do with the setups or the courses (as I said); there is no good explanation for the poor result at the Open.

Thus to me  it is jiust too soon to tell, and one can attribute it only to the fickle nature of golf.  It is a huge stretch to make this have anything to do with course setups or architecture just yet (even if that can be done, which I believe I could also refute based on specifics).  In any case, the main thing is this:  you just don't have enough data yet to draw any conclusions.  You'd have to be basing it on a missed cut in ONE tournament.

TH

[George Pazin]

Kalen -

Did you watch the previous 2? He may have contended, but it was with smoke and mirrors. I never really thought he would pull it out.

As for the pressure comment, that just reinforces my thesis that it is the architecture and the setup...

 

[Kalen Braley]

I'm still waiting for someone to give me one reason why we should think he's anything short of being in top form?

And don't say one missed cut because you know who, whom many on this site still think is the games best ever missed far more cuts in Majors than Tiger ever has...by miles!

If 8 top 10's, and 3 wins  in 9 starts is "underperforming" to you, then you need to get your head examined!!   

Kalen,

His record in regular tour medal play events is 3 wins in 5 starts.  His record in majors is 0 for 3, with a missed cut.  He has clearly underperformed his regular tour performance in the majors.

Phil,

Your kidding right?  Is there really much difference in performance when you contend on Sunday and finish 6th twice,  than actually winning?  Every guy on tour would dream to contend in 2 majors every year, many of them just one.  Sure i realize this is Tiger, but the guy was right there in his previous two majors. 

[Kalen Braley]

Kalen -

Did you watch the previous 2? He may have contended, but it was with smoke and mirrors. I never really thought he would pull it out.

As for the pressure comment, that just reinforces my thesis that it is the architecture and the setup...

 

George,

I did watch both Sundays...but are you telling me you weren't getting goosebumps watching him and Lefty duel and rocket up the scoreboard at the Masters?  That was epic stuff and very much in the possible range of him pulling it out, even though he came up a bit short.

My only point to all these posts is..anyone can have a bad tourney, at any time, anyplace, regardless of the course...even if your Tiger.  If this becomes a pattern, fine maybe I'll start to wonder, but its one tourney, and a massive outlier at that when compared to his PGA Tour resume. 

He can't be superman every time out ya know!! 

[George Pazin]

That's fine, you disagree with my thesis, you can join my friend in the "George is crazy" camp.

I do think it speaks to the differences between major championship golf and regular tour golf. As to whether it speaks to architecture, that's what I'm hoping to determine.

[Sean Eidson]

Wasn't the club throwing incident yesterday after his approach on 16?  Because he Tiger lost his composure, didn't he fail to make birde or better on 17?

Wasn't 16 the hole where the fairway was shifted 5-10 degrees to the left from its 1994 orientation, bringing more of the water into play on the right?

Didn't Tiger's shot just miss staying on the green, but leaked off to the right?

If tiger had saved those two shots, he'd make the cut?

If he made the cut he'd shoot an historic score and come back to win?

So I guess we can learn not to redesign holes that penalize Tiger's misses?

I recognize the pot/kettle situation here, but I enjoy architecture more when viewed through the eyes of a mythic golfer who never makes mistakes and Tiger just didn't live up to my mythic standard this week.  My mythic golfer hits every fairway, hits every green, and one-putts every time.  Architects try everything they can to stymie my mythic golfer, but he knows where all the trouble is and makes the perfect risk/reward decision whenever it's presented to him.  Tiger at times has played like this, e.g. 2000, but he's not in that zone this year.

It's a good thing that my mythic golfer doesn't play on tour - he would be very boring to watch.

[Kalen Braley]

That's fine, you disagree with my thesis, you can join my friend in the "George is crazy" camp.

I do think it speaks to the differences between major championship golf and regular tour golf. As to whether it speaks to architecture, that's what I'm hoping to determine.

George,

I don't think you're crazy..matter of fact, I think you're one of the sanest, level-headed guys in here.  But just like Tiger, even the best go off in the weeds sometimes!!   

[Dan_Callahan]

Unless the tee boxes are really cunningly shaped, it wasn't the architecture that made Tiger hit about a foot behind his ball with a fairway wood off the tee on 10. That was as bad a swing as I've ever seen Tiger make. In a way, it's kind of reassuring to see that even the greatest player in the history of the game can completely lose confidence in his swing from time to time. Of course, he still managed to find a few birdies in the closing holes to at least give himself a shot at the cut. I would have been a wreck after that 6-hole stretch from 8 to 13.

[PThomas]

its official:  he did miss the cut

so i wonder what he'll do with his free weekend?  clean a garage? lay around and eat junk food?  go to Wal Mart with the Mrs.

[George Pazin]

I recognize the pot/kettle situation here, but I enjoy architecture more when viewed through the eyes of a mythic golfer who never makes mistakes and Tiger just didn't live up to my mythic standard this week.  My mythic golfer hits every fairway, hits every green, and one-putts every time.  Architects try everything they can to stymie my mythic golfer, but he knows where all the trouble is and makes the perfect risk/reward decision whenever it's presented to him.  Tiger at times has played like this, e.g. 2000, but he's not in that zone this year.

It's a good thing that my mythic golfer doesn't play on tour - he would be very boring to watch.

This is a really interesting post. I'd argue I like the exact opposite. I don't think there is much to learn from the mythic golfer who just rips it 330 down the middle and stiffs his 140 yard wedge for birdie.

Kalen -

Don't worry, you're in good company - Matt thinks I'm craaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaazy.

[Richard Choi]

Tiger would have won both Masters and US Open if his putter got hot. I wouldn't put too much into the effect of GCA on his game right now.

[Tom Huckaby]

George - am I whistling in the wind?

 

I believe I refuted all of what you are trying to say here. The gauntlet is thrown down.  Go back and read my post.

I truly believe you can't make ANY conclusions based on Tiger's performances this year. It's just too small of a sample size.

Disagree?

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