Lou,
You forgot to mention the part about the Anti-Christ.
All of these doom and gloom threads miss the point. If golf dies it will be because grown-ups have been too selfish to take children golfing with them. People who love the game will find a way to keep playing it.
Declining rounds are because we have not been introducing young people to the game.
Take your children golfing with you - and your grandchildren - and your nieces and nephews.
You mean that the beast is amongst us? And I am concerned about the future of golf!
My post was not meant to be about "doom and gloom". As it was alluded to earlier, the decline in the number of rounds played and the participation rate began several years ago, well before the current plunge in the economy. It is not my intention to beat a dead horse, or to put others in a somber mood. I am trying understand our new reality, and, in this instance, how it will affect the game we all love.
Maybe the demand for golf is highly sensitive or elastic, and quickly responsive to the slightest economic changes. Perhaps because it is for many a highly discretionary expense, even the prospect of lower disposable income triggers a quick response (e.g. Bogey's post).
I think that DSchmidt is mostly right about affordability. While living in CA last year, I heard the opinion several times that it was the huge increases in gasoline prices and not the resetting of the interest rates in subprime variable rate loans that got the snowball rolling. People in CA often drive long distances to work and the extra $50 to $100 per week made the already bursting budgets an impossibility. Even highly affordable $20 and $30 golf courses saw their volume drop considerably.
The economy in Texas where I live now is in much better shape, but even relatively inexpensive golf courses are wide open. Private clubs that once commanded $30,000+ initiation are cutting off the sheet deals for a very small fraction of that. Some third tier privates offer no initiation/no commitment memberships with a 60 day cancellation notice; more than a couple have gone public.
I am doubtful that the "take your child to the golf course" suggestion is the panacea. My dad didn't take me to play golf, and I know many people who got into the game later in life after playing other sports. As Pat Burke notes, many kids just don't seem to take to golf. I offered my daughter the same opportunities to play the game as I did my son and she never gave a twit about it.
Mike Cirba makes an interesting point about current demographic trends not boding well for the future of the game. Hispanic, primarily Latin, and Arab families have the highest birth rates, while Caucasian are not reproducing anywhere close to replacement rates. Mark Steyn wrote a provocative book ("America Alone") that goes well into these trends, but I fear that the subject matter and the author's analyis might be too sensitive and perhaps offensive to some members of this DG.
In any regard, I don't believe that current golf participation rates by race are necessarily indicative of what they might be in the future. Disposable income and assimilation seem to me to be more important factors. But these too are highly dependent on a growing economy.
As to the impact on gca, my impressions are that things are not promising for the foreseeable future. Some may think that going back to the Classical era is a good thing, forgetting that there were a lot of dogs built back then, the ones we revere today being the exception and not the rule. Not only are many of the great sites gone, but unlike the 1930s, we also have very tight environmental and energy restrictions. And government, with all the unfunded entitlements on the books, just doesn't have the wiggle room to throw a few billion into WPA-like golf course projects (sorry, do we pay teachers or do we build another Bethpage?).
Dick Daley is right. It is about supply and demand, and the demand curve has taken a precipitous shift. If classical economic theory is correct, supply will eventually adjust. From my standpoint, this is not a good thing, though I will likely have access to golf that I may not have otherwise.
Mike Hendren,
I am sorry about your course of action, though it seems very sensible. Fortunately, if I am not mistaken, you still have that little magical card to at least partially satisfy your need. From the standpoint of other golfing opportunities at lowered prices, being a member of a private club is becoming increasingly less attractive. And with all your GCA.com and rater buds, you will still have great fellowship.
Tiger,
Somehow golf growing in China is not too assuring. Just consider how our UK friends think of American golf, and we share a common culture. Maybe they'll do a better job of keeping the best traditions of the game, but I wouldn't bet on it.