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Lou_Duran

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Demographics and the future of golf and its architecture
« on: July 01, 2009, 12:53:14 PM »
Facts:  golf and the economy are in the doldrums; the American consumer who accounts for the large majority of our economy is not spending; private debt reduction is dwarfed by huge increases in that of the public sector with no end in sight; the large bulge of Baby Boomers are coming into retirement age, most with insufficient resources to maintain the lifestyle they have become accustomed to and were expecting.

What are the implications for the golf industry and its architecture?

Can operators make it in an era of lower disposable income, considerably higher energy costs, tighter environmental regulation, possible rationing of water, higher taxes for social welfare, etc.?

Will private and non-municipal courses with debt service fail in large numbers?  Will those which survive lose their high-cost-to-maintain features such as bunkers, large greens, and wide fairways in order to cut down on expenses?

As an aside, I had a very unpleasant experience recently on a daily-fee course which caters to moderately well-off retirees.  In discussing the situation with a high management official of the company which operates the course, he stated that it was a challenge running this type of a facility.  Complaints galore, highly demanding, not respectful to the staff, and ultra-tight with the pocketbook, etc.  Others have opined similarly.  Is golf's future predicated on these old farts (myself included)? 
 
 

David_Tepper

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Re: Demographics and the future of golf and its architecture
« Reply #1 on: July 01, 2009, 01:05:36 PM »
Lou -

I would presume we will see a re-run of much of what happened in the 1930's. Some courses will close. A lot of bunkers will be filled in. Over the top maintenance practices will be scaled back.

Some of this is happening already. The game will survive.

DT

Mike Sweeney

Re: Demographics and the future of golf and its architecture
« Reply #2 on: July 01, 2009, 01:16:20 PM »
The game will survive.


I heard someone say recently in reference to his well known club dues bill, "That one (dues bill) gets paid before the electric bill."  ;) The hardcore golfer may drop a few memberships from his resume, but he is going nowhere.

As a guy who has clearly benefited from the oversupply of golf, I see golf's economic problem starting long before the recession. More and more courses were built and the same number of golfers and rounds were being played (roughly). The recession just brought it out into the open.

Mike_Cirba

Re: Demographics and the future of golf and its architecture
« Reply #3 on: July 01, 2009, 01:26:46 PM »
Lou,

There is a longer term demographic problem that simply stated is that the demographic groups with population increases during our lifetimes are not the groups who have historically taken to the game in large numbers while the converse is true among those groups in this country who have historically supported the game.

Mike Sweeney

Re: Demographics and the future of golf and its architecture
« Reply #4 on: July 01, 2009, 01:43:37 PM »
Lou,

There is a longer term demographic problem that simply stated is that the demographic groups with population increases during our lifetimes are not the groups who have historically taken to the game in large numbers while the converse is true among those groups in this country who have historically supported the game.

Nuestros amigos en Tejas necesitan tomar el plomo.

Bradley Anderson

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Re: Demographics and the future of golf and its architecture
« Reply #5 on: July 01, 2009, 04:03:10 PM »
Lou,

You forgot to mention the part about the Anti-Christ.  :o

All of these doom and gloom threads miss the point. If golf dies it will be because grown-ups have been too selfish to take children golfing with them. People who love the game will find a way to keep playing it.

Declining rounds are because we have not been introducing young people to the game.

Take your children golfing with you - and your grandchildren - and your nieces and nephews.

Adrian_Stiff

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Re: Demographics and the future of golf and its architecture
« Reply #6 on: July 01, 2009, 04:16:24 PM »
From the UK point of view, the better clubs are having the toughest times. Corporate business is down big time, hardly any company can justify £50 jolleys for 50 customers versus a shrinking till.

Many UK clubs are doing deals and some at crazy prices. The consumer is having a whale of a time. We are having our highest volume of golf traffic ever but we have lost the creamy corporate stuff that has high profits, we have only discounted after 5.00 byway of a twilight scheme, half price (the 9 hole rate) green fee and our members get buggies for zero.

We lost three staff just before Xmas, they wont be replaced unless the world turns a full circle. I don't anticipate losing anymore, but greens might be mown alternate days, fairways weekly and forget the strimming and less essentials, that would phase 2 of the defence plan. Phase 3 involves sheep and phase 4 is armeggedon.
« Last Edit: July 02, 2009, 03:17:15 AM by Adrian_Stiff »
A combination of whats good for golf and good for turf.
The Players Club, Cumberwell Park, The Kendleshire, Oake Manor, Dainton Park, Forest Hills, Erlestoke, St Cleres.
www.theplayersgolfclub.com

Wyatt Halliday

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Re: Demographics and the future of golf and its architecture
« Reply #7 on: July 01, 2009, 04:20:01 PM »
Nuestros amigos en Tejas necesitan tomar el plomo.

We are desperately trying to Mike.

Mike Hendren

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Re: Demographics and the future of golf and its architecture
« Reply #8 on: July 01, 2009, 04:47:01 PM »
Lou,

I'm hardly representative, but concluded that I can no longer justify $400 per month to play a few rounds of golf and submitted my resignation yesterday .  I tend to fund my golf with bonus money, which hasn't been forthcoming in my profession and likely won't be in the immediate future.   I can also knock out a year of college tuition with the refund of my membership fee. 

Bogey
Two Corinthians walk into a bar ....

Ian Andrew

Re: Demographics and the future of golf and its architecture
« Reply #9 on: July 01, 2009, 05:18:03 PM »
Golf has overpriced itself to the point where ver few can afford to spring for the whole foursome of Dad + 3 kids.

Dave,

Yes and no.

I'll argee that new golf courses have largely catered to an upscale consummer - and have a business model based around a high green fee that keeps new players away - but there are lots of courses out there at a reasonable price point.

The town I live in - Brantford (i hour west of Toronto) - has two very nice public courses where $35. gets you 18 holes on Saturday morning. They are as good as or better than a lot of new courses built in the last 25 years.


Golf will be fine - the architects and developers may struggle for a while.



George Pazin

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Re: Demographics and the future of golf and its architecture
« Reply #10 on: July 01, 2009, 05:24:54 PM »
There's plenty of cheap golf in western PA - less than $20 to walk 18. It's a lot of fun, too, even if the courses aren't "special". I can't wait to get my little man out there (he's 5 now, still a ways away - how early do kids typically start? Not the Tigers or Phils, but normal kids. I started at 29).

I can't comment on the economy or country at large or Bill McBride will call me a negative Nellie. :)
Big drivers and hot balls are the product of golf course design that rewards the hit one far then hit one high strategy.  Shinny showed everyone how to take care of this whole technology dilemma. - Pat Brockwell, 6/24/04

Mike Sweeney

Re: Demographics and the future of golf and its architecture
« Reply #11 on: July 01, 2009, 06:11:53 PM »
Ian:  you're right. $35 per round is certainly affordable for most folks who want to play golf.

20 rounds per year is $700.  

40 is $1400.

That's plently of golf...for one weekend golfer who has kids.

But multiply that by 3 or 4 (ie, dad plus 2 or 3 kids) and now you see the problem.

And that's at the AFFORDABLE course!

That kind of disposable, throw away money simply doesn't exist on a mass scale.

We can all do the math, but if everybody in America had an extra $3000 per year to throw away, that'd be about ONE TRILLION dollars. Think of all the hue and cry over that figure. It's the projected budget deficit for the whole country!  It's a lot of money. Why?  Because it's just not there to be spent.


Shivas,

Don't blame golf, you just have given up!

In 2004 Shivas said: "I think it's all about the local muni these days.  Im trying to figure out where my new local muni, the Wilmette GC, fits into this.  I'm learning more about the course and what they offer as far as families.  One thing I have learned:   If your kids have passed a golf class they offer, a season pass holder can take his kids out for free every day after a certain time (6:30 or 7 pm) for however many holes you can get in. "

By the way, can you show me the family of 5-6 that is not on a reality TV show that does anything 40 times a year together?

Here is a Family twilight membership at a Doak 6 course 20 miles from Times Square for less than $3000.

http://www.rivervalecc.com/content/view/17/42/
« Last Edit: July 01, 2009, 06:48:48 PM by Mike Sweeney »

Richard Hetzel

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Re: Demographics and the future of golf and its architecture
« Reply #12 on: July 01, 2009, 07:01:40 PM »
I often wonder how much of this is the current state of the economy and how much "were" greens fees "overpriced" to begin with? I think the golf boom of the late 1990's really allowed courses to charge more since play was much more crowded. I read somewhere that something like 10% of the golfers play 80% of the golf. I wonder if that holds true today? I have seen greens fees really come down, almost everywhere, in fact. Since I am going to play no less than 50 rounds each season myself, this bodes very well for me. I have yet to join a golf club, but I am inching ever closer as my 6 year old is taking lessons and playing with me and my 4 year old is almost ready himself. Toss in my wife and the twins, and a country club is looking like a cheaper option all the way around. Since I am off in the summers, one would expect my rounds played to increase once I do join! The sad thing is, there will be LESS golf trips....



« Last Edit: July 01, 2009, 07:12:06 PM by Rich Hetzel »
Best Played So Far This Season:
Crystal Downs CC (MI), The Bridge (NY), Canterbury GC (OH), Lakota Links (CO), Montauk Downs (NY), Sedge Valley (WI)

Carl Rogers

Re: Demographics and the future of golf and its architecture
« Reply #13 on: July 01, 2009, 08:11:15 PM »
For a specific example ...

Lambert's Point Golf Course on Old Dominion University property in Norfolk, VA is a nine hole affair over a former landfill and garbage dump adjacent to the Elizabeth River done by Lester George is the kind of course that golf needs.  It is walkable, inexpensive to play and operate, has a very good practice green and short game practice area and close to a large population area.  Golf wise, a very very difficult site (one lay-up hole, the only par 5).  The 4 par 3's are very good holes.  The views are great.

No big windfall for anybody, but Lester has told me the course is doing well financailly.

Many beginners and youngsters play the course.

I am not sure what else could have been done the property.

RJ_Daley

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Re: Demographics and the future of golf and its architecture
« Reply #14 on: July 01, 2009, 08:19:03 PM »
I think Dave Tepper's first answer is right on.  I think this is right up your alley Lou.  Supply and demand will seek its own equalibrium based on all of the factors of health of economy, debt burdens of facilities, and customer needs and golf operations response to thier customer.  

As for which courses survive based on age demographics, I think that the aging boomer population will seek the older and simple golf courses to go bat it around with their aging friends.  Thus, the debt free or not debt ridden mom and pops, may be the winners.  Old folks don't like to pay too much, don't like to get beat up by architorture, want to have a simple enjoyable round and go inside to gab and pub and grub with the rest of the old foggies... like me.  ::) 8) ;D

The high end CCFADs are as much for corporate entertainment and showy 30-50 somethings to display themselves and their status as much as they are for serious golfers, IMHO.  Not to say that good architecture isn't an important ingredient of the high end CCFADs in many cases.  But, I think their customer is more motivated by status than great architecture enjoyment.  

Thus, the fall back for serious golfers who want to play more - not pay more, is the modest tracks and the pursuit of hidden gems to tell your fellow golfers about and go experience.
No actual golf rounds were ruined or delayed, nor golf rules broken, in the taking of any photographs that may be displayed by the above forum user.

Matt Day

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Re: Demographics and the future of golf and its architecture
« Reply #15 on: July 01, 2009, 08:54:35 PM »
Affordability is the key...

We just had our best year since 1997/1998, did 174,500 rounds which is up 13,000 on last year and the range is up 10% as well

Pat Burke

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Re: Demographics and the future of golf and its architecture
« Reply #16 on: July 01, 2009, 09:20:34 PM »
It's kind of funny.  Our program has 240 kids per week receiving free golf lessons, free range balls, and golf for a dollar after 1 pm.  If a parent, grandparent (or guardian) goes with the student, they can play with their children for $15, WITH a cart (it's a cart ball course)
This week, we had a meeting on HOW to get our kids on the course MORE!  240 kids, dirt cheap for parents, and we are working on incentives to get everybody on the golf course more often.
I am working on a grant to build a 7 hole "short course" on our range (which is never confused with a TPC range).  I just believe that with a huge group of early golfers, it would be easier, more fun, and less daunting for our parents, many of whom are totally clueless about golf.  All in an effort to grow participation.
In a nutshell, the game intimidates the parents, is hard for the kids to learn, and takes FOREVER.  We've about eliminated the cost factor, and it is very clear that the kids are no only welcome, but encouraged to be here.  All of that and we rarely have a "gangsome of kids" hanging around, waiting to play. 
We've been a catayst for growing our local high school golfer count, with 5-6 (1 pending) new teams, mostly in girls golf, but most of them today are at the beach.  The majority of kids who fully take advantage, have parents who are golfers, we have had a few kids from non golf families who have flourished, but it is rare

Wayne_Kozun

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Re: Demographics and the future of golf and its architecture
« Reply #17 on: July 01, 2009, 09:57:04 PM »
Golf has overpriced itself to the point where ver few can afford to spring for the whole foursome of Dad + 3 kids.
When was golf not overpriced?  Didn't golf start in North America at private clubs where only the very wealthy could afford to play the game?  Munis sprung up somewhere along the way along with semi-private and public courses and, in the last 20 years or so, CCFADs that allowed more people to play the game.  Maybe I have a whacked view of reality but the "traditional" golfer that I think of in North America is a member of a private club.  If that is what we are returning to then the future of the golf looks like the past and perhaps the last 40 years or so were an aberration.

Mike Sweeney

Re: Demographics and the future of golf and its architecture
« Reply #18 on: July 01, 2009, 11:08:35 PM »

Golf is outrageously expensive and has priced itself out of the market.  Do you know what the tax base is in my town that enables that "reasonable" cost?  Didn't think so. 

I see no inconsistency between today's statement and the 2004 statement.  Too few can afford to play golf themselves, and far, far fewer can afford to spring for their families to play golf - which is why it's all about the local muni.

According to you, your tax rate has been low?


The golf business boomed during the last couple of decades under a (relatively) low tax environment and it sucked in the high tax 70s.


Is the tax rate low or is it high? Or does it just depend?

What is wrong with learning at a muni, which is where I learned?

You did not address the $3000 membership at the privately owned public course in North Jersey. Little league around here is $200 per season. Now at three seasons it is $600 per child. With four kids that is $2400 and Dad does not get to play.

Didn't you just play at Kingsley?  :D

Tiger_Bernhardt

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Re: Demographics and the future of golf and its architecture
« Reply #19 on: July 01, 2009, 11:15:51 PM »
In  a word YES golf will be fine. There will be some closures like in all contractions. There are markets which are overbuilt. There are areas of the world where golf will contiue to expand.

Lou_Duran

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Re: Demographics and the future of golf and its architecture
« Reply #20 on: July 02, 2009, 12:17:44 AM »
Lou,

You forgot to mention the part about the Anti-Christ.  :o

All of these doom and gloom threads miss the point. If golf dies it will be because grown-ups have been too selfish to take children golfing with them. People who love the game will find a way to keep playing it.

Declining rounds are because we have not been introducing young people to the game.

Take your children golfing with you - and your grandchildren - and your nieces and nephews.

You mean that the beast is amongst us?  And I am concerned about the future of golf!

My post was not meant to be about "doom and gloom".  As it was alluded to earlier, the decline in the number of rounds played and the participation rate began several years ago, well before the current plunge in the economy.  It is not my intention to beat a dead horse, or to put others in a somber mood.  I am trying understand our new reality, and, in this instance, how it will affect the game we all love.  

Maybe the demand for golf is highly sensitive or elastic, and quickly responsive to the slightest economic changes.  Perhaps because it is for many a highly discretionary expense, even the prospect of lower disposable income triggers a quick response (e.g. Bogey's post).

I think that DSchmidt is mostly right about affordability.    While living in CA last year, I heard the opinion several times that it was the huge increases in gasoline prices and not the resetting of the interest rates in subprime variable rate loans that got the snowball rolling.  People in CA often drive long distances to work and the extra $50 to $100 per week made the already bursting budgets an impossibility.  Even highly affordable $20 and $30 golf courses saw their volume drop considerably.

The economy in Texas where I live now is in much better shape, but even relatively inexpensive golf courses are wide open.  Private clubs that once commanded $30,000+ initiation are cutting off the sheet deals for a very small fraction of that.  Some third tier privates offer no initiation/no commitment memberships with a 60 day cancellation notice; more than a couple have gone public.
  
I am doubtful that the "take your child to the golf course" suggestion is the panacea.  My dad didn't take me to play golf, and I know many people who got into the game later in life after playing other sports.  As Pat Burke notes, many kids just don't seem to take to golf.  I offered my daughter the same opportunities to play the game as I did my son and she never gave a twit about it.

Mike Cirba makes an interesting point about current demographic trends not boding well for the future of the game.  Hispanic, primarily Latin, and Arab families have the highest birth rates, while Caucasian are not reproducing anywhere close to replacement rates.  Mark Steyn wrote a provocative book ("America Alone") that goes well into these trends, but I fear that the subject matter and the author's analyis might be too sensitive and perhaps offensive to some members of this DG.

In any regard, I don't believe that current golf participation rates by race are necessarily indicative of what they might be in the future.  Disposable income and assimilation seem to me to be more important factors.  But these too are highly dependent on a growing economy.

As to the impact on gca, my impressions are that things are not promising for the foreseeable future.  Some may think that going back to the Classical era is a good thing, forgetting that there were a lot of dogs built back then, the ones we revere today being the exception and not the rule.  Not only are many of the great sites gone, but unlike the 1930s, we also have very tight environmental and energy restrictions.  And government, with all the unfunded entitlements on the books, just doesn't have the wiggle room to throw a few billion into WPA-like golf course projects (sorry, do we pay teachers or do we build another Bethpage?).

Dick Daley is right.  It is about supply and demand, and the demand curve has taken a precipitous shift.  If classical economic theory is correct, supply will eventually adjust.  From my standpoint, this is not a good thing, though I will likely have access to golf that I may not have otherwise.  

Mike Hendren,

I am sorry about your course of action, though it seems very sensible.  Fortunately, if I am not mistaken, you still have that little magical card to at least partially satisfy your need.  From the standpoint of other golfing opportunities at lowered prices, being a member of a private club is becoming increasingly less attractive.  And with all your GCA.com and rater buds, you will still have great fellowship.

Tiger,

Somehow golf growing in China is not too assuring.  Just consider how our UK friends think of American golf, and we share a common culture.  Maybe they'll do a better job of keeping the best traditions of the game, but I wouldn't bet on it.    
« Last Edit: July 02, 2009, 12:23:44 AM by Lou_Duran »

Doug Siebert

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Re: Demographics and the future of golf and its architecture
« Reply #21 on: July 02, 2009, 01:44:33 AM »
Sure, many golf courses won't be able to service their debt and will close.  So what will happen to them?  Presumably many will be resold by the bank to new owners at a loss, and will stand a better chance at being run profitably.  Some may close and be repurposed for development or parkland, but presumably most such courses won't be missed.

Shivas - your scenario about kids golfing assumes they pay the same rate as adults and there are no junior summer passes or family season passes available.  Not all courses have these certainly, but if one looks around many areas will have this available.  When I was a kid just starting the game the summer after 6th grade my dad got me a summer pass to a little 9 holer for $60 (this was 1979, but still...)  He taught summer classes on MWF so he'd drop me off in the morning and I'd play 18 and he'd pick me up at lunchtime.  Between that and playing with him once or twice a week I not only played far more that year than I ever have since, I probably got my average cost per hole down to about 6 or 7 cents :)
My hovercraft is full of eels.

JWinick

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Re: Demographics and the future of golf and its architecture
« Reply #22 on: July 02, 2009, 04:17:53 AM »
I am a perfect example of the problem.  Grew up in the 80s/90s with access to a private club, but never played because I never felt welcome on the golf course.  It wasn't until later that I discovered how much I enjoyed the game.

The snobbery/exclusivity of the game have been its achilles heel. 

Lou,

You forgot to mention the part about the Anti-Christ.  :o

All of these doom and gloom threads miss the point. If golf dies it will be because grown-ups have been too selfish to take children golfing with them. People who love the game will find a way to keep playing it.

Declining rounds are because we have not been introducing young people to the game.

Take your children golfing with you - and your grandchildren - and your nieces and nephews.

PCCraig

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Re: Demographics and the future of golf and its architecture
« Reply #23 on: July 02, 2009, 07:44:04 AM »
Shivas,

Don't blame golf, you just have given up!

In 2004 Shivas said: "I think it's all about the local muni these days.  Im trying to figure out where my new local muni, the Wilmette GC, fits into this.  I'm learning more about the course and what they offer as far as families.  One thing I have learned:   If your kids have passed a golf class they offer, a season pass holder can take his kids out for free every day after a certain time (6:30 or 7 pm) for however many holes you can get in. "

By the way, can you show me the family of 5-6 that is not on a reality TV show that does anything 40 times a year together?

Here is a Family twilight membership at a Doak 6 course 20 miles from Times Square for less than $3000.

http://www.rivervalecc.com/content/view/17/42/

Mike, I'm glad you've figured out the search feature.

But your ability to find a prior quote doesn't change the facts.

Golf is outrageously expensive and has priced itself out of the market.  Do you know what the tax base is in my town that enables that "reasonable" cost?  Didn't think so. 

I see no inconsistency between today's statement and the 2004 statement.  Too few can afford to play golf themselves, and far, far fewer can afford to spring for their families to play golf - which is why it's all about the local muni.

I used to teach at the junior "golf class" that Shivas mentions at the Wilmette Muni. The after 7 golf used to pack the 1st tee with kids who only sort of wanted to be there and dads who were really excited for free golf. It used to work better when the twilight at the club started at 3pm and play started to slow at 5pm. Now that the course has installed a new "super-twilight" after 5pm to squeeze every penny of revenue out of the course the first tee is now packed until 7:30, and the kids get pushed back.
H.P.S.

Jim_Kennedy

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Re: Demographics and the future of golf and its architecture
« Reply #24 on: July 02, 2009, 12:45:33 PM »
During the last few golf seasons I have seen an ever increasing number of 20 and 30 'somethings' coming out to play. Around here they represent the largest block of 'new' players. Some of these guys played organized golf when they were younger, but quite a few of them are coming to golf from other sports. I think they're one of the best 'demographics' to reach out to, they like to compete and they bring a larger and more diverse pool of friends to the game.

Additionally, we encourage younger golfers with a $100/season golf pass and 20 somethings w/$200 a season passes. We make time for an away-camp of teen golfers to play and we also help out another course in our area (a 9 hole exec w/a good practice area) that has a good day-camp program for younger kids. We are also the home course for our local public high school. The away camp has post-teens and the day-camp has high school age counselors, supported by adult staff.

So after wasting all these words I think it's mainly a question of how you will involve young adults and their friends, and making time for kids. There are plenty of affordable places to do this.

"I never beat a well man in my life" - Harry Vardon