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Lou_Duran

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Re: Bernie Madoff's $50 Billion Fraud thru country clubs
« Reply #125 on: December 16, 2008, 07:52:04 PM »
DS,

Re: chump change

How about the politicians who have us in a $53 trillion unfunded commitment for social security, medicare, and medicaid entitlements.  I hope your kids are getting a good education and/or marry well.  Brave New World or Soylent Green?   

mike_beene

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Re: Bernie Madoff's $50 Billion Fraud thru country clubs
« Reply #126 on: December 16, 2008, 10:19:41 PM »
Our social programs already take 65% of the federal budget,and that doesn't come close to paying for them.Adding to this load is robbing the future.Check Massachusetts 400 million dollar additional shortfall.Our expensive defense budget costs less than our social programs.We can argue philosophy all day,but the fact is we are going under.The more I look at the details of our financial situation the more I wonder how we can maintain any standards,even with a fifth of the world's economy.There is plenty of blame to go around.How do we get out of this mess?

John Kirk

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Re: Bernie Madoff's $50 Billion Fraud thru country clubs
« Reply #127 on: December 16, 2008, 11:21:40 PM »
Kelly,

Beautiful post.  Peter Schiff thinks President Obama and Congress will prolong and deepen the problem by throwing money at it.  So there is a clear difference in opinion, between those economists like Schiff who think we should let the weak fall and starting picking up the pieces now, and other economists who think we should try to ease out of this somehow.  Like Mike Beene says, it may be too late, but for starters, don't be surprised if adjustments to the age limits for Social Security and Medicare are made.

I find it very refreshing to hear two of our more conservative members voice their concerns.  For years, the majority of my friends have thought the economy was fine;  I assign blame to certain major media outlets for spreading misinformation.  Imagine if you're Peter Schiff, and CNBC or Fox News invites you to a panel discussion.  He gains some exposure for his own mutual fund products, but he knows it's going to be a futile battle with a pack of media clowns and get laughed at for his "crazy ideas".  My fellow amateur economists at the Motley Fool saw this coming years ago, so I see no reason why responsible journalists would not have the same ability, and choose to instead act as "economy cheerleaders", knowing that high asset values benefit their own cause.

I just love the second set of guys laughing at Schiff, saying that real estate goes up "about 10% per year" normally.  They looked like they were on steroids.  Anybody who expects a 10% return on his investments needs to re-evaluate.  Today, the return on the S&P 500 for the last 40 years is about 5.5%.

I swear some of these guys are paid to say everything is OK.  Think Larry Kudlow, who has no credibility in my book.  With overall American debt increasing astronomically in the last few years, how could these clowns think everything was OK?  And they are TRUSTED by our people!

I'm certain that part of the upper middle class feels that entitlement programs are out of hand, so they embrace the tax cuts and feel justified in their increased wealth.  Like Kelly says, the problem may well be social unrest, and though I have grown resentful of "guy who spent his way into impossible debt keeping up with the Joneses", I don't want him coming up my driveway looking for trouble.

RJ_Daley

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: Bernie Madoff's $50 Billion Fraud thru country clubs
« Reply #128 on: December 17, 2008, 12:18:47 AM »
Well Kelly and others who think in terms of future massive movements, some doomsdayers talk about the US renoucing its debt, pulling back to its borders and telling the world not to mess with us or else it is launch time, thus launching a world wide panic and political disorder in multiple vacuums, leading right into world war III.  Yet, unlike the last world war, where when you add up the carnage of all the brutality and 10s of millions perished, even though we were lucky to have two oceans protecting us, we are pretty much back to talking MAD this time.  

What do you tell people that have been bilked out of everything they had (which in some of these cases is seriou$$$ wealth) or are now foreclosed on, lost their retirement assets, got sick and had a loophole ridden policy and are now facing medical cause bankruptcy, etc.?  Something tells me they don't want to hear any more idealogue laissez fair capitalist market works, and supply side economic theory.  Maybe the American people are so shell shocked at all the mounting scandal and ubiquitous political corruption, and utter failure to be protected by the government they 'thought' they were electing to help them, that they haven't really added it up yet or haven't come to terms that it is not the just the other guy this time, but them.  

Well, first tell them that "they" themselves likely played the game of trying in everyway they could to give money to legislators via some special interest org, to represent their own narrow special cause, and didn't see that the whole process was just a mutually assured distruction bribery as an institution war game played to maintain both Dem and Rep fortunate sons political position and power and favors were sold for the highest bidders.  One special interest trumped another, trumped another until all the cards were gone and the deck was empty.

How telling is it that in a so called representative democratic republic of 300million plus people we can't find more willing honest servants than a cylce of family dynasties named Clinton, Kennedy and of course Bush and now more family political acts coming up through the same system.  Pretty soon we'll have Track Palin in congress for crikey's sake.

The only way to stop this grab bag of power and government selling influence and favors to the highest contributor bidder and the most coniving political operatives, is to get the money out of politics.  Screw the first ammendment red herring argument that curtailing money in politics is curtailing free political speech.  It has become darn right seditious of our original intended constitutional objectives to allow the money influence to buy off for special interest every office from dog catcher to President.  You won't get rid of Madoffs, Blagojevich's, Cunninghams, Jeffersons, Abramhoffs, or Daley's (  ::) ) or their power broker manipulators like Rove, until you get the money as far out of politics as possible, and shutter the whore house capitol from anyone's lobbiest.  If we expect a different result from the same old political arguments and philosophies, we are defining ourselves as crazy or demonstrating just how much we have reaped what we sowed and deserve.  We need a new revolutionary national ethic, and must leave behind the old rhetoric,  In My Humble Opinion.  

Our 'Old Tom' saw some of this economic end game in a narrow scope compared to what is actually going on now, when he figured money center institutions (banks) would get so big and powerful and pervasive in their influence that they would lead to absolute national collapse.  Forget all that monitarist debating academy argument BS - it is the macro process of money in politics corruption, not the esoteric minutia of specific theory or policy that is killing us.

Quote
"If a nation expects to be ignorant and free, it expects what never was and never will be."

"If the American people ever allow private banks to control the issue of their currency, first by inflation then by deflation, the banks and the corporations will grow up around them, will deprive the people of all property until their children wake up homeless on the continent their fathers conquered. The issuing power should be taken from the banks and restored to the people, to whom it properly belongs."

"I believe that banking institutions are more dangerous to our liberties than standing armies."

"I wish it were possible to obtain a single amendment to our constitution - taking from the federal government their power of borrowing."

-Thomas Jefferson

Old Tom couldn't possibly imagine the actual wealth and power that modern day Wall Street Banks-Financial institutions and International conglomerates could/would coalesce via buying legislation via their lobbiests and power brokers, and yet he had that minor vision of an economic eventual melt down back then. 
No actual golf rounds were ruined or delayed, nor golf rules broken, in the taking of any photographs that may be displayed by the above forum user.

mike_beene

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: Bernie Madoff's $50 Billion Fraud thru country clubs
« Reply #129 on: December 17, 2008, 12:35:47 AM »
Dick,not quite sure where this fits,but didn't Jefferson avoid bankruptcy by selling his books to the govt for something like $5000?(the library of congress has worked out pretty well,I suppose)

Joe Perches

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Re: Bernie Madoff's $50 Billion Fraud thru country clubs
« Reply #130 on: December 17, 2008, 02:34:03 AM »
Try 18 terawatts.
That's the amount of new energy we'll need in 25 years.
[]
If you don't think this is the issue of our lifetimes, think again...

Do you have any citations for your assertion?
I think you're typing without thinking.
I think you're way way too high.

Today US peak electrical production is about one terawatt.
Over the year, we use about half of our peak production capability.
That's about 4000 terawatt hours per year.

Even assuming we convert all of the petroleum products we use
for transportation to electricity, I can't imagine getting close to 18 terawatts.
(~150,000 terawatt hours/year)

The electrical equivalent of a gallon of gas/diesel/kerosene is roughly 30 kwh.

The US uses:

~250 billion gallons a year for cars
~125 billion gallons a year for trucks
~50 billion gallons a year for jets

Let's say:
500 billion gallons/year
x 30kwh/gallon
= 15,000 terawatt hours/year

http://www.eia.doe.gov/cneaf/electricity/epa/epat2p1.html
http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/dnav/pet/pet_sum_snd_d_nus_mbbl_a_cur.htm

I think we'll manage just fine.

Patrick_Mucci

Re: Bernie Madoff's $50 Billion Fraud thru country clubs
« Reply #131 on: December 17, 2008, 06:41:18 AM »
Who was it that said words to the effect that, "you can fool all of the people some of the time and you can fool some of the people all of the time, but, you can't fool all of the people all of the time"

Why is it that when one guy cons others, including his peers and above, suddenly the entire system is flawed ?

Those who got seriously burned ignored a basic theory of investing.
DIVERSITY.
Not putting all your eggs in one basket.

Bernie Madoff has never been a member of Boca Rio.
He's played there occassionally and counts a number of members amongst his victims.

I just heard that another club in South Florida is in financial trouble.

Will clubs, in an attempt to control costs, form confederations or collectives ?

If so, would this seem to be the begining of a trend away from pristine maintainance practices ?

In an effort to stem costs will water use be rationed ?

Will firm and fast be the by-product of insufficient funds ?

Craig Sweet

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: Bernie Madoff's $50 Billion Fraud thru country clubs
« Reply #132 on: December 17, 2008, 06:59:26 AM »
Patrick...I would not be surprised if some routine maintenance practices are cut back....maybe fewer top dressings...fewer days on bunkers....less aerification.....all in an effort to "just make it" through the next couple of tough years until the economy picks up again...I would be surprised if more drastic measures are taken...unless the club was in financial trouble heading into this mess....
No one is above the law. LOCK HIM UP!!!

TEPaul

Re: Bernie Madoff's $50 Billion Fraud thru country clubs
« Reply #133 on: December 17, 2008, 07:51:32 AM »
"Who was it that said words to the effect that, "you can fool all of the people some of the time and you can fool some of the people all of the time, but, you can't fool all of the people all of the time"


Pat:

Ahhh, I used to know that. I think his first name was Abe. His last name is on the tip of my tongue but I just can't think of it right now---I guess it's too early in the morning. His last name sounded like some well known American car.


"Those who got seriously burned ignored a basic theory of investing.
DIVERSITY.
Not putting all your eggs in one basket."


I like Warren Buffet's theory on investing:

"If I don't understand the investment I don't invest in it."  ;)

As of the last 24 hours it looks like a number of people were skeptical of the legitimacy of Madoff's operation up to eight years ago. It seems they could not believe that return could ever be that "smooth" over that amount of time. Another adage they used was; "If it looks too good to be true it probably is."

I got it Patrick. The guy who made that quotation of yours above was Abe Ford.


Steve_ Shaffer

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: Bernie Madoff's $50 Billion Fraud thru country clubs
« Reply #134 on: December 17, 2008, 08:01:23 AM »
Pat,

You said,"Will clubs, in an attempt to control costs, form confederations or collectives ?

If so, would this seem to be the begining of a trend away from pristine maintainance practices ?

In an effort to stem costs will water use be rationed ?

Will firm and fast be the by-product of insufficient funds ? "

Is there anything wrong with this in the short term?
"Some of us worship in churches, some in synagogues, some on golf courses ... "  Adlai Stevenson
Hyman Roth to Michael Corleone: "We're bigger than US Steel."
Ben Hogan “The most important shot in golf is the next one”

HamiltonBHearst

Re: Bernie Madoff's $50 Billion Fraud thru country clubs
« Reply #135 on: December 17, 2008, 08:07:27 AM »

Mr. Daley

I might be mistaken but wasn't Mccain-Feingold an attempt to get money out of politics?  Didn't one candidate renage on his promise to use the more "clean" public financing and go all in with contributors that could not even be verified in a presidential election?

Yep money is the problem but it is telling that you take the Ruth Bader Ginsburg  philosophy on the constitution by "screwing" the first amendment.  Why not, you and Ruth know better.

Rich Goodale

Re: Bernie Madoff's $50 Billion Fraud thru country clubs
« Reply #136 on: December 17, 2008, 08:08:48 AM »

"Those who got seriously burned ignored a basic theory of investing.
DIVERSITY.
Not putting all your eggs in one basket."


The greatest accumluators of wealth (e.g. Carnegie, Gates, etc.) actually did the very opposite, i.e.:

"Put all your eggs in one basket, and watch the basket!"

Patrick_Mucci

Re: Bernie Madoff's $50 Billion Fraud thru country clubs
« Reply #137 on: December 17, 2008, 08:14:26 AM »
Steve,

The "collective" form of management is frought with problems.

It's not as easy as it would seem.

Yet, when you look at the many mergers of hospitals, Banks, Health Insurers and other entities, could golf clubs be the next in line ?

Even municipalites are discussing and debating mergers, mergers of their Police, Fire and other departments.

I believe the crunch on costs is going to get worse.

Just look at the proposed tax hikes in New York this morning.
Governments are getting desperate for revenue.

Maybe NOW, those in government might come to the realization that they'd better make businesses their ally instead of their adversary, as they've done for the last four or five decades.

Adam Clayman

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: Bernie Madoff's $50 Billion Fraud thru country clubs
« Reply #138 on: December 17, 2008, 08:36:00 AM »
Dick, you can't have factions without a democracy and you can't have a democracy without factions.  The solution should be to make penalties for violating the public trust so severe that no one would do it without risking their life. Not their political life either.
"It's unbelievable how much you don't know about the game you've been playing your whole life." - Mickey Mantle

Rich Goodale

Re: Bernie Madoff's $50 Billion Fraud thru country clubs
« Reply #139 on: December 17, 2008, 09:20:36 AM »
Well said, Adam.

BigEdSC

Re: Bernie Madoff's $50 Billion Fraud thru country clubs
« Reply #140 on: December 17, 2008, 09:38:09 AM »
We had a similar situation in Charleston not too long ago.  It involved a local economic professor, Al Parrish, at the Baptist College.  He claimed big returns.  He was on the local TV station dispensing economic advice and prognostication.  People around him loved him and thought that he could spin straw into gold.  Turns out he was running a ponzi scheme and invested money in fountain pens, garden trolls and dubious artwork.

People acted similar to Bernie Madoff's people, couldn't hand the money over to him fast enough.  In the end, he duped around $50 million from everyone, and in the end, everyone lost all of their investments.  Al's now serving time for, I think, 15 years.

I know that Al pales in comparison, but the emotions, and the MO are the same.  The guy was "trusted" and it was hard for people to convince themselves to check on the guy and everything that he was offering was too good to be true.

mike_malone

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: Bernie Madoff's $50 Billion Fraud thru country clubs
« Reply #141 on: December 17, 2008, 09:56:07 AM »
 Bloomberg states that he has a 9.8 handicap. Any bets on how honest that handicap is?
AKA Mayday

RJ_Daley

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: Bernie Madoff's $50 Billion Fraud thru country clubs
« Reply #142 on: December 17, 2008, 11:47:55 AM »
I fully agree Adam.  In Jefferson's time, I believe a fellow like Madoff would be off to the gallows.  They really did hang folks back then for such matters. 

Factions are what democracy is made of, and they should have a market place of ideas.  But when it comes to candidates running for public office, we should hear all their ideas for free on multiple public TV and radio stations dedicated to giving free speech of candidates their microphone, rather than letting them buy the biggest microphone with lobbiests and influencial large contributor's money.  Free speech is something to fight and die for.  But, bought speech and  bought candidates is something to fight and die to prevent. 

Hammy, didn't McCain-Feingold get so watered down and bastardized by folks like McConnel and his ilk that it isn't worth a bucket of warm spit in its present form?  We have to go way further than McCain-Feingold, for the very reason that Obama and anyone else that raises vast sums of money - however, can opt out of various provisions.  There needs to be an absolute commitment that a free marketplace of ideas is insured to everyone via public access to media, without the need to raise vast sums of money to market and buy ignorant people's attention. 

I don't know about you, but I listen to c-span more these days than I do watch Desperate Housewives.  I can get that at home...  ::) ;D

Pat Mucci, I hope that some of those clubs and courses, private or public can survive at all, and find a silver lining in reduced maintenance practices that put emphasis back on the recreational and sporting aspects of the game and maybe drive down the walls of exclusivity due to the pure factor of money and social status.  No matter what, the people still need recreation and diversion in their lives.  The long time traditional socialist city of Milwaukee used the hard times of the recession of the teens and then the depression era to put WPA workers onto the task of expanding their park and rec system, including Brown Deer GC, as something that people need in their lives. 

No actual golf rounds were ruined or delayed, nor golf rules broken, in the taking of any photographs that may be displayed by the above forum user.

Mike Hendren

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: Bernie Madoff's $50 Billion Fraud thru country clubs
« Reply #143 on: December 17, 2008, 01:38:09 PM »
Bloomberg states that he has a 9.8 handicap. Any bets on how honest that handicap is?

http://www.cnbc.com/id/28277660
Two Corinthians walk into a bar ....

mike_malone

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: Bernie Madoff's $50 Billion Fraud thru country clubs
« Reply #144 on: December 17, 2008, 01:48:31 PM »
 As Madoff walked out of the courthouse this golf crazy guy asked " What's the logo on his hat?"
AKA Mayday

Sam Maryland

Re: Bernie Madoff's $50 Billion Fraud thru country clubs
« Reply #145 on: December 17, 2008, 02:00:10 PM »
Bloomberg states that he has a 9.8 handicap. Any bets on how honest that handicap is?

http://www.cnbc.com/id/28277660

I actually put the numbers in a spreadsheet and looked at them a little bit.  if you threw out the two high and low scores, all of the other 16 scores fell in between 83 and 87 -- amazingly consistent, almost too good to be true!

and the range between high and low score of the 20 was only 9 shots.  I have a similar handicap and my range was fully 19 shots.


Lou_Duran

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Re: Bernie Madoff's $50 Billion Fraud thru country clubs
« Reply #146 on: December 17, 2008, 02:02:16 PM »
Who needs free speech and the First Amendment?  Perhaps now some of you may begin to understand the importance of the Second.

I think it was HenryE who said that we don't criminalize laziness, negligence, and errors in judgement.  Today we are calling for Madoff's head.  There is a fine line between negligence and malfeasance (okay, counselors, jump all over me on this one).  I was warned in Europe during the early 90s that filing for bankruptcy could land one in jail.  With the hatred of Wall Street, corporations and CEOS, and the rich in general running rampant in this country, the comfort of just being stupid, foolish, or a little of both may be gone by the wayside.

Just like a simple audit of Madoff's inventory would have shown that something was amiss, a review of his posted scores reveal that he is likely a crook and a cheat.  The range of my 27 scores this year is 16 strokes (74-90).  As a not very good 5, my range should be tighter than Madoff's (87-80=7) as a 10.  At least it should have triggered a more thorough review.  I suppose that he was a smart crook in both accounts, not posting any huge investment gains or sub-par rounds which may have brought more attention to himself.

I would love to see a list of beneficiaries of his political and charitable contributions.  It will be interesting to see who the trustees go after to recover Madoff's distributions during the relevant statutory period (supposedly investors who got money out of the fund may have to return it to the authorities for an equitable re-distribution to all wronged parties).

Mike Hendren

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: Bernie Madoff's $50 Billion Fraud thru country clubs
« Reply #147 on: December 17, 2008, 02:08:41 PM »

I think it was HenryE who said that we don't criminalize laziness, negligence, and errors in judgement.  Today we are calling for Madoff's head. 

Lou,

Betrayal is indefensible.

Mike
Two Corinthians walk into a bar ....

John Keenan

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: Bernie Madoff's $50 Billion Fraud thru country clubs
« Reply #148 on: December 17, 2008, 02:12:46 PM »
Lou this morning on CNBC the former head of the SEC noted that it seems that Madoff had two sets of books so a simple audit would in all likelihood not shown anything wrong.

The things a man has heard and seen are threads of life, and if he pulls them carefully from the confused distaff of memory, any who will can weave them into whatever garments of belief please them best.

Rich Goodale

Re: Bernie Madoff's $50 Billion Fraud thru country clubs
« Reply #149 on: December 17, 2008, 02:18:59 PM »
Lou this morning on CNBC the former head of the SEC noted that it seems that Madoff had two sets of books so a simple audit would in all likelihood not shown anything wrong.



Is it possible that a business with (theoretically) $50 billion in assets could get by with a "simple" audit?  This thing smells more and worse every day.....