How many new courses projected in 2009? with wild a$$ guesses for 2010...

[Mike Nuzzo]

To unbury my question away from another political thread....

Recently the NGF lowered their estimates for courses built in the US in 2008.
currently there are 65 and they project 75 or so for the year.

What is everyones guess for 2009 for the US?

I'll guess 55-60.

This is down from 100+ in 2007 & 2006
That is a big difference.

Cheers

[TEPaul]

I'll guess around 38 projects below zero!

[Chip Gaskins]

define built.   opened, growing in, started, announced, etc?

[Matt_Ward]

Mike:

My understanding is that you will have somewhere around 75 courses coming forward -- many of those were already planned, approved and in some form or fashion being constructed before the financial meltdown hit big time towards the end of '08.

In sum -- the effect is more of a lag indicator -- the greater slowdown will be for what will come forward beyond the immediate time frame of '08 -- but in '09 and beyond.

[Mike Nuzzo]

Chip.
# of courses to Open in 2009.
NGF numbers are opened in 2008

Tom,
I wasn't counting closures....
It could be way below 38

Matt,
I'd respond, but you didn't give me an answer. 

[Matt_Ward]

Mike:

I think your number for '09 is on the very positive side -- I can see half that if things remain or sink below what's happening now.

[Jeff Fortson]

I think it would be interesting to keep a log of all the courses that will most likely be shutting down over the coming months and possibly years.  A list of modern NLE's could let us debate why and how they became NLE's after doing some comparisons.


Jeff F.

[Mike Nuzzo]

Matt - are you estimating 25-30?
Wow.


Anyone else?


Jeff, I think that is a good idea - I don't recall seeing what the courses are, but in general the NGF states that they are mostly low end - I assume that had been turned into developments.

Cheers

[PThomas]

for all you industry insiders: has the NGF's reputation suffered as a result of their concept from approx 15 yrs ago that a course a day needed to be built in the US to keep up with (expected) demand?

[Matt_Ward]

Mike:

I think it's fair to say that course projects of many different types are not planned in a vacumm. No doubt the ones that were borderline to start with will likely not be moving ahead given the tight money and the falling golf market which has not been growing and is utterly dependent on the core player for the overwhelming number of rounds / purchases made.

I see the total # of new courses staying low because when you see unemployment rates at their highest rates in well over twenty years and with the housing market slumping badly I can't see how many projects can advance ahead. No doubt there may be a few totally private layouts with deep independent deep pockets but even then there's going be a hestitancy to move ahead on that front either.

Mike, for many Generation X and Y folks -- golf is both expensive and time consuming. The Tiger effect really did nothing to spur things along. No doubt the high profile metro areas with top tier private clubs will survive intact but the rest of the golf market is clearly going to need to make major changes. Be very much interested in seeing how the sunbelt courses fare this winter into early spring.

I concur w what Jeff has said.

[Ronald Montesano]

I'll give you one in 2009 or 2010:  Hickory Stick in Lewiston, NY.  A casino course for the Niagara Falls Seneca tribe, built by RTJ2 on a flat piece of land.  I've been on it and they've worked some small miracles to create an intriguing and challenging layout.  Down the road you'll see some photos.

[Mike Nuzzo]

Matt,
We both agree it is going to be low - I asked how low.

Reading the Neal Meagher thread inspires me to ask the global number.
That hurdzan number of 400-500 globally has to be way off now.

What is the treehouses' global estimate for 2009?
How many were built worldwide in 2007 & 2008?

[Rob_Waldron]

Mike

There are a few on the drawing board in the DC are but I am not sure if they will open.

Lake Presidential near Dulles closed before it opened. Apparently there are still four or five holes left to grass.

Harbor Station off I95 south of DC - Nicklaus / Jacobson course which is part of  Ketler Development has no announced opening date.

[Mike_Cirba]

Mike

There are a few on the drawing board in the DC are but I am not sure if they will open.

Lake Presidential near Dulles closed before it opened. Apparently there are still four or five holes left to grass.

Harbor Station off I95 south of DC - Nicklaus / Jacobson course which is part of  Ketler Development has no announced opening date.

Rob,

I'm confused.   Isn't Lake Presidential the course I played earlier this year in Upper Marlboro by the two former Dye associates?

[Carl Nichols]

Lake Presidential is indeed in Upper Marlboro.  The Presidential was a course in Northern Virginia (near Dulles) that closed in September. 

[Tom_Doak]

Mike:

I've never seen a published number of courses opened worldwide for any given year.  I think it would be hard to get right, although you could probably make a reasonable estimate if every American architect would report their work.  I've noticed, though, none of those surveys by tracking firms ever want to know about our international work. 

Maybe they'll get interested now, so they still have something to keep track of.

[Rob_Waldron]

Mike

My Bad. Presidential is the course by Dulles. Lake Presidential is the Upper Marlboro course developed by the Landmark. My typing was temporarily impaired by Cabernet!

[Andy Troeger]

There are at least 4 current projects I am aware of in New Mexico in various stages of development. Two technically opened in late 2008, possibly two more in 2009 (Ute Lake Ranch and the new one in Las Cruces). The LC one might be farther down the road. If you want to count the Black Mesa project which is farther out then even 5 projects going here, but we don't have nearly the overpopulation of courses that some areas struggle with. If anything, the courses around Alb are usually almost too crowded--can be tough to get a tee time at busy times.

[Greg Chambers]

I was discussing this with a golf course construction super friend of mine today who says the number of new construction projects in the US is currently at about 25.

[Randy Thompson]

I have to get a project in the US now, so in the future I can say on my web site, ONE OF THE TOP 50 COURSES TO OPEN IN 2009!!

[David Lott]

You might also want to track the following data:

How many announced courses with construction not commenced?

How many courses with construction commenced but suspended?

How many courses completed in past five years foreclosed, deeded to lender or otherwise changing ownership on a forced basis?

That will give you a good sense of the health of the industry.

[Mike Nuzzo]

Gil Hanse hears one story of 34 projected openings.
That is so much lower than 55.

I thought is was not going to be easy to count them one by one in this thread.
I may have been wrong.

Matt still hasn't weighed in with his estimate.... 

Holiday Cheers

[Ian Andrew]

First one built.... wins Best New for 2010

[Mike_Young]

It will be interesting to see how the Mags reinvent the rating process for New courses.....it will happen because they have made it such an event that they need it more than the courses.....

[Gary_K]

I'm aware of one course opening for 2009 and 2 potential golf courses that may be constructed in the next 2-3 years.  All three courses are located in northwest Iowa.

The 2009 course opening is The Ridge Golf Course in Sioux Center, Ia.  The 7,173 yard par 71 course was designed by Jerry Slack and built by Landscapes Unlimited.  I was involved with the design of the residential and commercial development around the course.  It was a great experience to interact with the designer and builder.  The course will open this coming spring.

Recently, a residential/commercial development was announced for Spirit Lake, Iowa.  This area is part of the Iowa Great Lakes (better known as Okoboji).  The development will include a Jack Nicklaus designed golf course that will be managed by Troon Golf.  See the attached link for a news article.

http://www.siouxcityjournal.com/articles/2008/11/27/news_business/local/990daeb7b870c1178625750e000317fa.txt

The second potential course will be located in the far northwest corner of Iowa (near the South Dakota border) and will be part of a Resort/Casino development.  This development will depend on obtaining a gambling license from the State Gaming Commission.  I look forward to working on this project.