Peter:
I will take a shot at answering that myself.
Absolutely, there is a "range of recoverability" around the greens at Ballyneal. As I told one of our interns when we went out there last month, one of the things I learned from my time in Scotland is that every contour has a good side and a bad side ... the same contour that makes a little chip shot impossible from one side serves as a backstop from the other side, if you'd just had the sense to get on the other side. Ballyneal is full of those shots. There are some places where even the world's best can't get within ten feet of the hole, but only because they put themselves in the dead wrong place, relative to the hole location.
Now, if you hit just a fair tee shot on a hole, it will usually make the next shot more difficult because if you're 180 yards away instead of 125, it's much harder to put your ball in the right quadrant of the green area ... the contours of the ground short of the ideal location will tend to steer balls unpredictably away from the prime spot.
Indeed, the prime spot to aim at on the green may change if you're further away, because it is unrealistic to get at a certain spot on the green with a long iron or fairway wood approach ... but there are still different places you CAN aim for, and there is one of them that's going to be better than the rest.
John's initial example is a tougher one than most, because that hole is a par five and even if Mr. Mayhugh had hit a better drive, he would still have been playing it as a three-shot hole. But by hitting a poor drive, he would rob himself of the option to try to get his second shot up close to the foot of the green where he could run his third up to the hole -- not an option that many golfers take, but some do. And if he was choosing to lay up to give himself a full wedge, his drive would have made it harder to get around the bunkers in the corner and to play to a relatively flat stance for his third ... indeed, because of the poor drive he wouldn't be able to see the landing area for his second shot clearly to pick out a flat area at which to aim.