Mike,
I was feeling pretty good, coming home from the Stars win over the Wings, and now I read this.
But, its true. All I know is that it will be a mish mash of trends, much like design. For instance, in the last few days, I have heard of several courses for sale here, and another contacted me about expanding by nine holes. Go figure!
I have always realized that the 90's was an abberation as far as the golf biz goes. From what I see, maintenance budgets will go back under half a mil. While we discuss what's the best bunker style here, the real discussion at 75% of the courses is how many bunkers can we take out, and how can we make the rest easier to maintain, and damn the looks......Not much different than the depression.
I say that because of the golf managent companies. I don't think they are going away like you do. But I do think that the need to send $0.20 of every $1.00 to the corporate office does open the way for a mom and pop operation in a mid market. I think the big companies will be in big cities, and mom and pop will buy themselves a middle class job in small markets. Kind of like American flying to Chicago and American Eagle doing the commutes to Rockford, IL, etc.
As to gca's, computers allow more and more to work home based. If my office complex A/C units work as badly as they did last summer, I will be doing that myself! If I want a suana, I will go to the gym.....
I think the top dog at any facility can come from the ranks of the pro, GM, or super. All are fighting for those positions. With the idea that we have three times as many applicants, I gather golf management salaries will go down, from competition and revenues. I think there will always be some quality people in the biz, despite lower salaries, because its a glamor biz.
After 2001, if you talked long enough, you found that almost every small business, including gca's, photographers, contractors, etc. borrowed money for the privlege of staying in the biz. We paid the debts off but I doubt that most will do it again. In Orlando, I got some suggestions about just how unbusy most of the Contractors were right now. The architects I talked to were amazed I had a new course design to brag about.
The one mortal lock is that the average amount of irrigation water will go way down. Hellloooo Paspalum and Buffalo Grass! Any new irrigation system will be much higher in price. To achieve water savings, heads will have to be spaced tighter, adding up, and there will be more in the way of weather stations, part to part heads, individual head control, moisture sensors, and other bells and whistles to make water conservation possible. Rainbird has a course in NJ where a combo of all those things achieved a 46% water savings. Of course, some clubs will water more area for the same amount of water, rather than reduce water useage.
I am glad I won a few "Best New" awards before they were a mortal lock. I agree, that with just a few more categories, and less courses, there will be years that if I don't at least make the list with a project, I should stay away from tall buildings.......that is, if I am not one of the casulties of the downturn. I hope not because after 24 years on my own, I get the sneaky sense that I am umemployable!