...and i also strongly disagree with doug's post about harrington having a mental breakdown on 18 and doing a van de velde... he had to go for that green... he just played two bad shots
Had to? How do you figure? His problem was the terrible angle he had into that green, not the carry over the burn. He was hitting 3 after his drop, and could have laid up and had a good chance at an up and down 5, with 6 as the worst score he could make.
If he hit a good shot and put it on the green he's most likely going to make a 5 since it would be extremely unlikely he'd put it close enough to make the putt since the pin was in the absolute worst spot to attack from way right (I'm sure that was deliberate on the R&A's part) If he chickens out and avoids the OB he short sides himself and he's almost certain to make 6, if he pulls it left and goes OB he's done.
He probably wasn't thinking about hitting it in the burn again, but consider where his ball entered that burn. I think if he'd flushed that ball on the same line his fat shot took it may have been OB, so hitting that shot fat may have saved the tournament for him.
The way I look at it if he hit 10 balls from that location and laid up he'd average 5.5, getting up and down half the time (those pros are good with their wedges!) If he shoots at the green 10 times he maybe hits it or close enough for an up and down and makes 5 half the time, maybe 1/3 of the time he chickens a bit right and short sides himself and makes 6, 1/10 of the time he goes OB and its done and then there's the bizarre outcome that no one would have predicted where he hit it so fat it actually bounces into the burn and he makes 6 but it could easily have been 7.
He knew Sergio had to play 18, so giving yourself a 50/50 chance of making 5 and forcing Sergio to make par to tie, with the other 50 a 100% certain 6 that means Sergio has to make par to win which is no mean feat there, was definitely the play. He should never had hit at the green.
Maybe in 2015 or whenever the Open visits Carnoustie again when the next guy is in that situation he'll learn from history and lay it up if he has to play from way right. That angle is just not appealing at all, there is literally nowhere good to miss it. If you've just hit a tee shot offline enough to put you in that position, clearly you do not have the directional control necessary to play a shot at that green from that angle in that situation.