Mike,
As much as I was cursing you both under and over my breath last week when I found the front bunker on #17 at LS, I agree with most of your observations.
One I am in disagreement with is your statement of, "the acceptable chance of recovery relative to the severity of the mishit that put you there..."
I don't believe that bunkers should be designed as an object to corral "mishits" (no, I am not saying that is what you were stating either), rather, I believe they are a feature of proper strategic design. They are put in place to make the player think.
Consider what a golf course would be without bunkers. It would require that every green be on the nature of #14 at ANGC with a great deal of interior movements and undulations in order to create any strategy to the hole whatsoever.
Bunkers allow an architect to design the entire hole with strategy and risk/reward options in mind. It allows him to be far more creative.
As a result, I think that bunkers should not be designed based upon how one can make a recovery shot. One of the reason's we are so enamored with the Open championship and links golf is the exquisitely penal nature of the bunkers. How many times will we hear an announcer say in the next few days that the only shot available to the player is to hit it out sideways or even backwards? And yet this will be followed by a statement that garners mutual agreement of what a fine design feature it is.
Bunkers should not be fair, though that having been said, they ought not be overly unfair either.
By the way, my first shot on 17 hit into the top and came back down and past where I stood. I had to kill the wedge to get it on in 3.
You bastard...