I think Sebonack will fare well in the ratings game, because of its great publicity, its location, and its enormous cost. But this reflects my own bias and prejudice about how the winners are selected. It also depends on how important ratings are to club management. Will Sebonack bend over backwards to treat raters to spectacular playing conditions, free lodging and meals? I believe all the little non-golf perquisites have to subconsciuosly influence the raters, whether you like it or not. That's the way modern marketing works.
Friar's Head is not in Golf Digest's top 100 courses, and I doubt they give a damn. Friar's Head is my kind of place, and would almost certainly make my top 100, if I had the pleasure to play them all.
I get two cracks at Sebonack later this year, which is nice, since I admire very few courses the first time around. It is well known that I enjoy Tom's style, and expect I will have a high opinion of the course. I took a tour of the course last year with one of the membership representatives. I also spoke briefly to the superintendent. Both were good guys: serious, happy, unpretentious.
I do not expect that I will like Sebonack more than Ballyneal. At least one common perception bias is in play. We'll call it the member course bias.