A Case Study Exploring the Accuracy of Forecasting the Winter Weather in Bandon

[rjsimper]

As anyone who has taken a trip to Bandon knows, part of the anticipation (read: terror) leading up to the appointed dates is rooted in the uncertainty over the weather.  Regardless of season, the ever-present threat of a washout (or as we saw earlier this winter, a whiteout) hangs like a thundercloud off in the distance.

Anyone who has taken a trip to Bandon ADDITIONALLY knows that the forecast can not be relied upon too heavily.  Weather can change at a moment's notice and a forecasted day of sunshine can be demonized by a rogue squall faster than you can say "Where's Sasha?"

Many on GCA have trumpeted the virtues of the winter Bandon trip, some to the extent that they will only consider an outing if low season rates apply.  "It hardly rains" they say.  "Oregon gets a bad rap...the coast is mild".  And their idea of full disclosure?  "Sure, it's chilly, but your chances of playable weather are as good as or better than the fools who pay 2 and 3 times as much to go in July".

So with baited breath, 8 GCA folks prepare for their Bandon adventure this weekend, Low season rates and all, fully expecting to find this sunny and mild weather.  As the dates approached, internet weather sites become bombarded with advance forecast queries for "97411".

Imagine the horror when, with 6 hours until my departure, the forecast from numerous sources is as follows:

Weather.com

Sat - 47/40 - Rain
Sun - 44/38 - Rain
Mon - 42/36 - Rain
Tue - 43/37 - Showers
Wed - 43/39 - Showers

CNN

Sat - 52/42 - Rain
Sun - 47/38 - Rain
Mon - 47/37 - Rain
Tue - 47/39 - Rain

Intellicast

Sat - 47/40 - Rain
Sun - 44/38 - Rain
Mon - 43/35 - Rain
Tue - 42/37 - Showers
Wed - 44/40 - Showers

Accuweather

Sat - 52/44 - Windy with Rain
Sun - 47/38 - Very Windy with Rain
Mon - 47/37 - Breezy with Rain
Tue - 46/39 - Breezy and Showers

Wunderground

Sat - 48/38 - Rain
Sun - 47/40 - Rain Showers
Mon - 41/32 - Chance of Rain
Tue - 43/31 - Chance of Rain

National Weather Service

Sat - 49/39 - Rain
Sun - 48/36 - Rain
Mon - 42/33 - Chance of Rain
Tue - 44 - Chance of Showers

So, wish us luck, as we hope that the long-held belief that meterologists are mere quacks in the scientific world holds true.  We shall, I'm sure, report upon our return as to whether we spotted even a moment of sunshine or were able to once eschew our rain gear.

Those of you who rave about Bandon in the winter should fear retribution should these forecasts pan out.

As one I am a mere weakling, but 8-strong with my GCA brethren, we are a formidable army.

My God what have we done.  

[Tom Huckaby]

In my newfound quest to use my karmic powers only for the betterment of my friends, I am 100% optomistic.  It can only get better than the forecasts given!

TH

ps - that being said, as I posted elswhere, those who trumpeted the winter trip to Bandon are going to get an earful when I return next week, if the forecasts hold true.  

[ed_getka]

Rain gloves and Gore-tex. Two of the wonders of the modern world.

[PThomas]

Weather.com

Sat - 47/40 - Rain
Sun - 44/38 - Rain
Mon - 42/36 - Rain
Tue - 43/37 - Showers
Wed - 43/39 - Showers

CNN

Sat - 52/42 - Rain
Sun - 47/38 - Rain
Mon - 47/37 - Rain
Tue - 47/39 - Rain

Intellicast

Sat - 47/40 - Rain
Sun - 44/38 - Rain
Mon - 43/35 - Rain
Tue - 42/37 - Showers
Wed - 44/40 - Showers

Accuweather

Sat - 52/44 - Windy with Rain
Sun - 47/38 - Very Windy with Rain
Mon - 47/37 - Breezy with Rain
Tue - 46/39 - Breezy and Showers

Wunderground

Sat - 48/38 - Rain
Sun - 47/40 - Rain Showers
Mon - 41/32 - Chance of Rain
Tue - 43/31 - Chance of Rain

National Weather Service

Sat - 49/39 - Rain
Sun - 48/36 - Rain
Mon - 42/33 - Chance of Rain
Tue - 44 - Chance of Showers

well, they're consistent, so you got that going for you

seriously, to paraphrase "x" in "JFK":  I hope you guys get a break

[Garland Bayley]

There is only one accurate forcast for the Oregon coast in February.

Rain,
rain,
and more rain!
Oh by the way, did I mention wind,
wind,
and more wind.

"Oregon, come to visit but don't stay." Gov. Tom McCall.

 

[Tom Huckaby]

Garland - oh sure NOW you tell us.  Where were you when we were debating the merits of planning this trip, late last summer/early last fall?  

Ed - yes, those are modern wonders and we will all have them.  It just would be nice to not have to use them.  

[Bryan Izatt]

You guys didn't happen to notice that the average rainfall in February is nearly 8" but less than 0.5" in July.  The stats don't lie.

Sadly, the temps look to be 10* below normal too.  What happened to global warming when you need it.  

Hope you've got all the tech clothing to go with the tech I&B.

They do have nice fireplaces to dry things out afterwards though.  

[Daryl David]

Yes, that is as bad a forecast as I have seen prior to a trip.  I too overly worry about weather before all golf trips.  My experience is that when the forecast is either extremely bad or extremely good, that something in the middle is actually what happens.  With rain gloves and rain suits, you can slog through it.  Just think of the stories you will be able to tell your friends back home.

[Garland Bayley]

Garland - oh sure NOW you tell us.  Where were you when we were debating the merits of planning this trip, late last summer/early last fall?  

Ed - yes, those are modern wonders and we will all have them.  It just would be nice to not have to use them.  

Did I mention US 101 often has sections obliterated by the rain, floods, and mudslides requiring you to go the long way around to access parts of the coast.
 

Have a good time and remember we in Oregon call it liquid sunshine.
 

[Tom Huckaby]

Bryan:

Said averages were mentioned when we discussed this last fall, for sure.  The advocators of Bandon winter golf assured us they were perhaps not a lie, but at the very least exaggerated.  

Daryl:

That is a GREAT way to look at it.  We might have some great stories to tell.


Garland:

I refuse to acknowledge road closures, as I am trying to be optomistic.  But we shall have the Highway Patrol number on hand.

TH

[Garland Bayley]

Where are you guys flying into?

Just so you know, it snowed in the coast range last night and more is predicted.

[rjsimper]

4 of us fly into OTH
1 flies into PDX
3 Santa Clara boys are driving

[Tim Pitner]

As someone who experienced 2 inches of rain (the equivalent of 2 feet of snow) for 2 straight days in Bandon in September (supposedly a dry month), I feel your pain.  It sucks.  But, there's no point in crying about it.  Make the best of it.  Good luck to all.    

[rjsimper]

As someone who experienced 2 inches of rain for 2 straight days (the equivalent of 2 feet of snow) in Bandon in September (supposedly a dry month), I feel your pain.  It sucks.  But, there's no point in crying about it.  Make the best of it.  Good luck to all.    

Oh believe me, I'm a gamer.  Unless the course is closed, I'll be out there doing something, I am just not sure it will be called "golf"

I think I may buy a heavier rain jacket on my way to the airport.

[Tom Huckaby]

I share Ryan's take on this.  We will not have driven all the way up there to stay in the clubhouse.  

But more importantly, a great man summed it up thusly off-line, and I hope I don't embarass him or betray any confidence by posting it here.  It's just such a damn good take, I am adopting it myself.

A 70% chance of rain merely means that 7 out of 10 times it will rain some time during the day.  Big whup.  The weather forecast is about what I expected when I signed up.  Just think how wonderful it is going to be enjoying some hearty food and a nice glass of _______ with lovers of the game after a tough day battling the elements.  The weather is merely the mole on Cindy Crawford's face.


TH

[Kalen Braley]

Hey Tom,

Whatever justification it takes to sleep at night is fine in my book.  

[JohnV]

A few of the hardier Oregonians around this site made a trip there in late January 2000.  The first morning it poured so hard we had to quit after 9 holes as the holes were full of water and the rivers were running across the greens.  Peter Pittock exclaimed that Bandon is where all the companies should come to test their Goretex products.

But, by that afternoon the sun came out and we were taken on a great trek around the land that would become Pacific Dunes by Bruce Heppner.  Had our clubs been dry we might have gone back out to play.   The next day was even nicer and we did get 18 in before returning to Portland.

So, have faith and watch the forecasts very carefully.

And remember that there are very few weather stations west of Bandon so the forecasts aren't always as accurate as they are on the East Coast.

[Brad Tufts]

Rain gloves and Gore-tex. Two of the wonders of the modern world.

Rain Gloves in 41 degrees and "Breezy with Rain" will be like trying to halt sperm with prayer....

Good luck....

[Kalen Braley]

Forecast for tommorow says rain with 15-25 MPH winds...

[PThomas]

Rain Gloves in 41 degrees and "Breezy with Rain" will be like trying to halt sperm with prayer....

 

[Tom Huckaby]

I gotta say Brad, that got some serious audible yuks here... that is damn funny on too many levels.....

[Brent Hutto]

Man, you guys are really going all out to harsh their buzz. If they were playing at Dornoch tomorrow everybody would be saying they're in for some good Scottish weather.

Geez. It's a maritime climate in the middle of winter, hard to imagine anyone game enough to sign up for a trip like that is going to scurry off and crawl in a hole because of some cold, sideways rain. Playing in the rain with a decent caddie and proper clothing isn't exactly like roughing it in the Arctic in my book.

[peter_p]

High wind watch in effect for SW Oregon for Friday night through Saturday afternoon, 40 gusting to 60. For the Santa Clara crew, carry tire chains and comestibles. I-5 was closed from Yreka to Ashland earlier in the week and snow is forecast while you are in Bandon.

[Kevin_Reilly]

I am the "good luck charm" for golf weather, without fail.

If you guys had any sense, you would have paid for me to accompany you, and for little incremental cost (my travel costs plus fee divided by 7) you would have guaranteed good weather.

Next time, don't short-cut yourself....buy this insurance!

[Garland Bayley]

But, its a dry cold in the arctic Brent.