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RJ_Daley

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Will there be more or less?
« on: February 10, 2006, 10:06:54 AM »
In the year 2020, will there be more golf courses in the U.S., or less, in total numbers?

Consider if that number will be effected by old, outdated courses plowed under and turned over to housing tracts, and where new courses to serve populations will be sited.

I don't know off hand what the NGF might say is total # of U.S. courses at this time, but I'd guess around 20K, including mom and pop daily fees all the way up to the cream of the crop privates.

Personally, I think we will not see much of an increase.  I'll guess in 2020, maybe there will be under 22K, no matter what the population figures do.  I think costs to find and develop more land in population areas, declining demographics in the playing public age groupings, costs to build and maintain them in a climate of diminishing natural resources, and economic realities of disposable income for the middle class, will continue to work negatively to see any real long term growth in golf.


No actual golf rounds were ruined or delayed, nor golf rules broken, in the taking of any photographs that may be displayed by the above forum user.

rjsimper

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Re:Will there be more or less?
« Reply #1 on: February 10, 2006, 10:36:49 AM »
I think you're right - I'd guess there to be a stagnance in total numbers...the number I'd be even more interested to see is the numbers in a place like LA County, where we hear rumors every day of courses being closed down for housing (Lost Canyons, Hidden Valley, Cascades) - land that was previously considered to be unacceptable for housing tracts.

LA golf always intrigues me - you'd think they would run out of buyers for target goofy-golf courses, but onward they march.  Even with the closure of a couple I know of in the last few years, they still add new ones to make up for those.

I would love to see the number of golf courses stay the same, because maybe that means they are plowing under some of the useless courses near the city and building newer ones on the outskirts on some better land - I'm used to driving 60-90 minutes for decent golf, so I am all in favor of more choices out there.

A_Clay_Man

Re:Will there be more or less?
« Reply #2 on: February 10, 2006, 11:10:29 AM »
Dick, Your thought provoking post should cause us all to recognize the importance in appreciating great works of golf course art. If the money is more important to decision makers, in major metro areas, there's not much any of us can do, unless we have the means to become the decison maker.
However, with the techno advances creating the ability to live remotely, while still staying in touch, has opened the door for the potential of new projects outside of those population centers. If built modestly, out of the way courses can just sit back and wait for the population to come to them. i.e.'s like WH and Rc are perfect models.

Now, If the recent past parinoia over the future of golf course design and construction, had continued to drop off, I'd say there would be cause for worry. Since there still seems to be plenty of interest in new projects, especially in the remote areas, while metro areas are selling thier bottom tier courses, the future looks not so bleak.

The upside is, most of these projects now recognize the importance for better GC art. Mostly thanks to Mr. Morrissett's folly, is my perception.
« Last Edit: February 10, 2006, 11:12:00 AM by Adam Clayman »

Mark Brown

Re:Will there be more or less?
« Reply #3 on: February 10, 2006, 12:08:18 PM »
Adam,
I think overall you're right, that poor city courses will be plowed under and better courses will be built just beyond the suburbs.

There are some potential issues however:

1. How many of the baby-boomers will be avid golfers?

2. Will the right type of courses (affordable daily-fee courses, affordable golf communities and reasonably priced private golf-only clubs) be built in the right locations, rather than in high-end destinations that already have too many courses.

What will happen in Michigan, Myrtle Beach, Naples, Scottsdale, etc. How many courses will go under?

3. Will alternative golf facilities be built and used -- 12, 9 or 6 hole courses with a place to learn and practice the game. The industry thinks they will. Will that bring more people into the game?
see www.prestwick12golf.com
I welcome any comments, input, constructive criticism.

4. I would guess that golf will grow at a slower rate in the future, although the real estate industry may carry it on its back as it is now.

If beginners and occasional golfers embrace the alternative golf facilities it may grow faster.

if you're interested.

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