AG...I believe the overall level of competition was just as good from 1960-1986 as it is today...you had your first tier of golfers, your second tier (and by the way, they too won the occasional major) and you had a bunch of third tier guys.
I'm just saying that during that earlier era you had 5 or 6 guys, that when it came to majors, were head and shoulders over everyone else. You just don't have that today. Tiger rises to the occasion. Vijay, Davis Love, Els?? Hardly...and I don't see anyone from this supposedly superior PGA pool of golfers winning more than 3 or 4 majors over the next 15 years...is it because the competition is so good, or is it because no one "gets up" for the majors like Tiger and Jack???....thus..15 years from now if we look back will Tiger have 18 majors and 19 second place finishes? Will Vijay have 9 majors, Els 8, anyone else more than 3 or 4??? I doubt it.
We completely agree about these:
1. Tiger will NOT have 19 second place finishes. I think the reason is that if Jack was a little off, he was still good enough to be second, and Tiger often is not. Whether that is because Jack's B game was better than Tiger's, or because of more good players to step forward if Tiger is off, we'll never know.
2. Vijay won't have 9 majors, and Els won't have 8. Whether or not somebody else will have more than 3 or 4 remains to be seen; there are still 15 years to go IF the Tiger era lasts as long as the Nicklaus era. That player(s) could be in college right now.
Again, the real question is why the above are true. You attribute it to the relative greatness of Palmer, Trevino, Player and Watson. I consider them to be great players as well, but I can't imagine them winning as much today as they did in their own era.
Indeed, the thing that makes Tiger so remarkable is that he IS winning in bunches in an era when the depth of the fields is so good nobody else can. Ask yourself whether it is more likely that:
a. the quality of the TOTAL field in a major in the 60's and 70's was equal to today, given the tremendous growth of the game in the last 10-15 years
b. there are more quality players today than in any previous decade ever, due to growth in the money, college golf, junior golf, mini-Tours, etc.
Both of these can't be true, can they? If a. is true, then we have a remarkable competitive anomaly in professional golf, when all other levels of the game are at their all-time peak. If b. is true, then we have a really plausible explanation for both why Tiger won't finish second as often as Jack, AND why other players won't win as often as Player, et al. I just think b. makes a lot more sense, given the state of the game.