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bodgeblack

Emerging Markets
« on: January 09, 2003, 03:58:10 AM »
Who can see into the future?

Where are the hotbeds of Golf course Construction going to be in 2003.

Eastern Europe, Asia, Oceania or continued growth in pockets like Florida and the Carolinas?

cheers

Jamie
« Last Edit: December 31, 1969, 07:00:00 PM by 1056376800 »

Mark_Fine

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: Emerging Markets
« Reply #1 on: January 09, 2003, 04:59:10 AM »
I said this in a previous thread, I see China as a very lucrative market.  It is not an easy one but with the right connections, there is lots of potential.  Our company is very active there (not in golf course design) and the Chinese and all the foreigners relocating and/or visiting on business are going to what to play somewhere!  

I also believe affordable golf "everywhere" will be needed.  I think that means a different paradigm for new course development.  

Mark
« Last Edit: December 31, 1969, 07:00:00 PM by 1056376800 »

Tom Doak

Re: Emerging Markets
« Reply #2 on: January 09, 2003, 07:53:11 AM »
Mark,

While every capitalist thinks China is a great market -- more than a billion people can't be wrong! -- I don't know if that makes it a great market for great golf courses.

Yes, there should be a lot of great land in China, but the clients would tend not to be at all sophisticated about what they're paying for, and it would be very hard to get good local help when you throw the language barrier on top of it all.  Not every great design associate wants to move to China, either!

Look back at Japan fifteen years ago -- the biggest boom market for golf construction of all time -- but what did they accomplish??  20% of those new courses are now CLOSED, most of the rest are hurting, and none of them are anywhere close to a top 100 ranking.
« Last Edit: December 31, 1969, 07:00:00 PM by 1056376800 »

A_Clay_Man

Re: Emerging Markets
« Reply #3 on: January 09, 2003, 08:04:04 AM »
I noticed you left off Central and South America. I know that Don Maidlow is down there working and from what I hear making bank.
« Last Edit: December 31, 1969, 07:00:00 PM by 1056376800 »

Mark_Fine

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: Emerging Markets
« Reply #4 on: January 09, 2003, 08:35:51 AM »
Tom,
As you know, few things worth pursuing come easily.  Our company has done business quite successfully in China for many years now and as you know, a good 10% of those billion people are becoming much more affluent.  Many of these are being exposed to golf because of their interactions with foreign compaines who are investing there.  They visit the U.S. for example, and companies like ours take them to play golf and they get hooked.  Moreover, though I personally wouldn't want to move there, many Westerners have and that trend is increasing.  

I agree, you might not see Top 100 courses springing up all over, however, there will be opportunities for course development on a lesser scale for sure.  There is more money in China now for such kinds of investment and it will be an opportunity for firms willing to pursue it.
 
Mark
« Last Edit: December 31, 1969, 07:00:00 PM by 1056376800 »

RCSa

Re: Emerging Markets
« Reply #5 on: January 09, 2003, 08:39:27 AM »
Who is Don Maidlow?
« Last Edit: December 31, 1969, 07:00:00 PM by 1056376800 »

Lou Duran

Re: Emerging Markets
« Reply #6 on: January 09, 2003, 08:56:20 AM »
If I was an architect or had a construction company, I would look at China with great interest, AS LONG AS I was getting my fees/progress payments upfront.  The last thing that I would want to do is invest my money long-term in the finished product in such a foreign place.

Texas Utilities a few years ago make something like a $9 billion investment in British energy (electric) companies.  Its stock rose to $50/share in early 2002.  The company found that the foreign regulatory environment was impervious to its "way of doing things", and by the 4th quarter, the stock had lost nearly 80% of its value.  Much of the British holdings were sold off for around a $6 billion loss, and what remains is in bankruptcy.

The golf industry in this country needs an affordable, feeder system to grow the participation rate.  I haven't figured out how to achieve a quantum leap in productivity that would allow a course that today would cost $5MM+ to be built for half that amount, but perhaps someone can come up with new revolutionary drainage and irrigation systems, plus lower maintenance-intensive grasses.  I know that our environmental friends wouldn't like it, but EPA and wetlands regulations need to be modified so land unsuitable for anything else can be dedicated to affordable golf.  This can actually be done while improving the environment, wildlife habitat, and flood control.
« Last Edit: December 31, 1969, 07:00:00 PM by 1056376800 »

bodgeblack

Re: Emerging Markets
« Reply #7 on: January 09, 2003, 09:53:36 AM »
Lou

Are these country-wide environmental regulations or do they change state by state?

Do particular states have more stringent environmentla laws than others which ward off would be Golf developments?

cheers

Jamie
« Last Edit: December 31, 1969, 07:00:00 PM by 1056376800 »

David_Tepper

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: Emerging Markets
« Reply #8 on: January 09, 2003, 10:51:31 AM »
Three or four years ago, it looked like Italy might be on the verge of a boomlet in golf course development. Does anyone know if there has been much activity there in recent years?
« Last Edit: December 31, 1969, 07:00:00 PM by 1056376800 »

Bob_Huntley

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: Emerging Markets
« Reply #9 on: January 09, 2003, 11:46:11 AM »
I would hazard a guess that Italy has the lowest number of courses per 100,000 population, than just about any other of the Big Eight European nation. I've played Villa d"Este and Circolo Roma, is there much else?
« Last Edit: December 31, 1969, 07:00:00 PM by 1056376800 »

Steve Okula

Re: Emerging Markets
« Reply #10 on: January 09, 2003, 11:53:35 AM »
I just got back from the Mediterranean coast of Turkey, where 7 new courses have been built in the past 7 years.

Most recent is a 36 hole project designed by European Golf Design, and there are others credited to Dave Thomas and David Feherty.

The area attracts tourists from Europe mainly during the winter months with its mild climate.

There is also a lot happening right now along the Costa del Sol, on the Med coast of Spain. Apparently Dave Thomas again has five projects on the go there, but also designs by Cabell Robinson and perhaps Gary Player, among others. I haven't been there lately to check it out, but it's definitely the hot spot in Europe.
« Last Edit: December 31, 1969, 07:00:00 PM by 1056376800 »

David_Tepper

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: Emerging Markets
« Reply #11 on: January 09, 2003, 12:13:53 PM »
Bob Huntley-
I just found a website that listed over 180 golf courses in Italy. I have no idea how that stacks up against the other countries in Europe, but that is a lot more than I thought there were in Italy. It would be interesting to know how many of those courses have been built in the last 5-10 years.
My guess is that Costantino Rocca making two Ryder Cup teams gave the game a shot in the arm there. If Italy could develop another 2 or 3 quality Tour players that would help as well.
DT  
« Last Edit: December 31, 1969, 07:00:00 PM by 1056376800 »

John Nixon

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: Emerging Markets
« Reply #12 on: January 09, 2003, 12:56:08 PM »

Quote
Lou

Are these country-wide environmental regulations or do they change state by state?

Do particular states have more stringent environmentla laws than others which ward off would be Golf developments?

cheers

Jamie

The U.S. EPA sets federal, nation-wide standards for many environemental permitting programs, which the states must essentially implement under state law or have EPA run the state's program for them. Some states do enact those programs with standards that are more stringent than federal standards, while others merely adopt what the federal standards are.

Current issues that potentially affect future golf course construction include a legislative response to the recent US Supreme Court's ruling on federal jurisdiction over isolated wetlands, and anticipated federal stormwater effluent standards.
« Last Edit: December 31, 1969, 07:00:00 PM by 1056376800 »

RJ_Daley

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: Emerging Markets
« Reply #13 on: January 09, 2003, 01:35:36 PM »
I'd be keenly interested in emerging Italian Golf.  I only spent a month there last summer, and not in pursuit of golf activities.  But, as is my habit, everywhere I looked on our travels throughout the country, I always have my eye on what would be good golf land.  I saw some decent land for golf development in semi links or seashore areas south of Salerno and up the Adriadic side, and nice hill country areas for parkland courses.  But, my inquiries to friends and relatives there generally brought the rolling of eyes.  The development constrictions of regulation and fierce obstructionism of anything newly developed is overwhelming, from what I was told.  

As to the Italian personality which might embrace the game, I think it is potentially a latent dynamo.  While most Italians I got to know don't really think about golf, I see in them a kind of personality or cultural attitude of sportsmanship and intensity that could be explosive if they were able to experience the game.  Italian-Americans from my experience are absolutely rabid about the game.  
« Last Edit: December 31, 1969, 07:00:00 PM by 1056376800 »
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JohnV

Re: Emerging Markets
« Reply #14 on: January 09, 2003, 01:47:29 PM »
I'm really surprised that there are so few courses in Greece.  A quick check of a couple of websites came up with only 5.  I guess that all the tourists coming from Germany and Sweden must be interested in something other than golf.
« Last Edit: December 31, 1969, 07:00:00 PM by 1056376800 »

Michael Dugger

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: Emerging Markets
« Reply #15 on: January 09, 2003, 02:11:19 PM »
Afganistan
Iraq
North Korea
 ;D
« Last Edit: December 31, 1969, 07:00:00 PM by 1056376800 »
What does it matter if the poor player can putt all the way from tee to green, provided that he has to zigzag so frequently that he takes six or seven putts to reach it?     --Alistair Mackenzie--