Tom,
Again, we basically agree, yet your response sounds contentious. If you play TOC once, you know which greens slope away. That wouldn't take hundreds of playings to figure out, would it?
Yardage is the start of most shot deliberations, I think. If you have a blind shot, but know the course, you aim at something, and you figure the yardage, then hope. But, you have learned that through subsequent playings.
It may take more than three rounds, agreed, to understand the complexities of green slopes from everywhere you might miss around the green. However, having putted or chipped from the left does give some clue as to what it might do from the right - just reverse what happened from the other side.....and as Dave says, good players can estimate fairly well (as much as from hitting 1000 chips a year in 200 rounds versus the casual player hitting 200 over 20 rounds) the effects of slope etc, on their proposed shots.
As to touring pros, it is a difference of degrees between them and a low handicapper - they will pull off any shot type about 75% of the time, versus 50% for single digits, and 25% of the time for high handicappers. However, there are many high handicappers who are proficient in thought, but not skill, rendering their strategic expertise somewhat void in many cases.
In the final shot planning, I agree with you, differing winds, firmness, etc. make the shot a little different every time - again that is why we play. But can you name a course where a shot will break left one day, and right the next?
Again, I think its somewhat semantics - is the course, or the course conditions the thing that are difficult to figure out? What say ye to that premise?