" Let's face it, the majority of the vacationers there have golf as the secondary concern behind other activities"

Pete,

That only is during the summer vacation season.  During Fall, Winter, and Spring is when most people come on golf packages, as it's usually not beach weather, so golf matters most to people who come to the area to golf, which is a large chunk of folks these days.  Even in the summer, golf is much more important than it used to be.  Last couple of times I played in the area in the summer, the courses were busy-to-packed, partly because summer rates are lower (and they were at some of the 'better' courses).  Spring and fall rates are outrageous.


I always find it interesting driving by the Home Depot shopping center in North MB, where Gator Hole GC used to be.  We ate at the IHOP once, which probably is very close to where the old GH 18th green was (peninsula green on par 3 over lake).

" Let's face it, the majority of the vacationers there have golf as the secondary concern behind other activities"

Pete,

That only is during the summer vacation season.  During Fall, Winter, and Spring is when most people come on golf packages, as it's usually not beach weather, so golf matters most to people who come to the area to golf, which is a large chunk of folks these days.  Even in the summer, golf is much more important than it used to be.  Last couple of times I played in the area in the summer, the courses were busy-to-packed, partly because summer rates are lower (and they were at some of the 'better' courses).  Spring and fall rates are outrageous.

Scott - I don't want to speak for Pete, but I think he may have been referring to something a bit more "adult" oriented.  

At the Crittendon Show in Vegas last week, I heard one knowledgeable person state that this may be the first year in history (I'm not sure if he is old enough to know the depression) that more courses will close than open.  Don't know if thats true, but.....

As discussed here earlier this year, my Centennial near Atlanta was sold for housing.  Also, in Vegas, I found out that 36 of the 54 holes at Stallion Mountain are sold for housing.  Luckily for me, the 18 staying are mine, with the Carry Bickler holes disappearing.  Curley and Schmidt will integrate and remodel three of his holes into the new course, which will lose holes 12-14 in the process.

The contraction is hitting hard.  I'm not sure that it is only the new courses that will survive.  It may be that the new courses, saddled with debt versus old courses that are paid off, will be the ones to go out.  Add in real estate covenants preventing some from being sold, etc. It seems the core courses would be the next likely target, leaving us with more condo canyons than ever before.

Cabell:

Right on both accounts, regarding OH and the MB nightlife.  OH has been closed for a longer period of time than MH, but I believe they are both just sitting idle.

From my experience, the draw to MB for large male groups is the social aspect of it and the relatively low prices, due to hotel/condo rentals.  Of course this is not true for every group.

Scott:  Sorry for the poor choice of words.  I mean "golf vacationers".

Pete

Is it a problem if a course can't make it because the loan payments are too large because land acquisition and construction costs were out of control?  Like Tom Doak points out, bankruptcy and fire sale pricing can fix that up quite nicely.

I'd also argue it isn't a problem for courses to be unable to generate income at a level where the present value of the expected income stream is lower than the expected income stream of developing the land for housing.  Its just a question of the best use of resources.  Seems to me that golf courses could make ideal developments, you have plenty of trees, ready made street plans, and nice little touches like water features that really help make an area marketable.  I'd hate to lose a great course to something like that, but its up to the membership to save if its private or the public to save it otherwise (by being willing to pay higher greens fees so it can make it)

If something truly historic like Pine Valley or Myopia Hunt Club wanted to sell to housing, one strategy for saving it might be to try to get it on the National Register of Historic Places.  That's the best way to save historic neighborhoods from being torn down and replaced with condos, apartment buildings, etc.  Anyone know if this has ever been tried for a golf course, and if it succeeded or not?

I am seeing this firsthand this year as the nine hole golf course that I learned golf on my first summer is going to close soon and be replaced with housing.  Its a totally worthless course, but it is still a bit melancholy for me as I have memories there of making my first par, first par in regulation (driver/3W on a 320 yard hole, fear my long hitting prowess ) and so on.

It was bound to happen though, the land is now worth much more as a subdivision.  Another crappy nine holer recently expanded to a crappy 18 holer will probably suffer this fate in 10-20 years, along with a quirky nine hole private course.  But we've got three additional really nice 18 holers added in the past 15 years within 20 minutes of my house, so its a net gain overall, and I'm happy to trade crappy nine holers to the developers in exchange for nice 18 holers anytime!  One of those 18 holers was a nine holer built by a developer 15 years ago who was losing $200K/yr on it, so he donated it to the city who spent $7.5 million expanding it to 18 holes and fixing its deficiencies.  That's one way to save a course from becoming housing!

I don't know if it is going to be a shakeout, or if it will be a  quantum shift, but the golf business is headed for change. When one looks at the costs (fixed and variable, start-up and operational) involved and the stagnant nature of the number of players nationwide, the end game is evident, if unclear in nature:

Something must, and will, happen.
                                                                            Whether that is a Darwin-like battle of golf courses (both public and private) or a structural change in the operational side (I can't clearly see all the alternatives; but, as an example, lowering of the maintenance costs by a fundamental change away from the "Augusta" mentality), it can't keep going the way it is. There is not enough people and money to go around.

And in the midst of the golf course boom, I feel something has been lost. Its a fleeting feeling, a quicksilver gut notion. But somewhere along the way, in the race to be bigger and better, to get one's share of the billion dollar pie that golf is, the soul of the game has been forgotten. Developers "use" golf to sell houses, and golf is "used" as the centerpiece of haughtiness and arrogance in private clubs. Man, not to go Waylon and Willie here, but maybe it is time to get back to the basics. Golf for golf's sake. Rediscover the passion of the game.

Maybe I'm morphing into another thread, but I feel that the above is a problem in the business. Maybe people are tiring of  paying all that money so they can valet park, never touch their clubs, have GPS and a repair tool and a bag tag and scented towels and the privilege of playing a "signature" course with "signature" holes that was once rated "third best new semi-public course in the county whose first hole faces west". And I almost forgot the pyramid stacked range balls.

The business is in trouble. It could be a train wreck or a fender bender. But, coming out on the other side, it will be healthier. Because it will survive...the game is too big.

Here is something for golf course operators to ponder.  Make of it what you will.  I am an avid golfer, obviously.  Not a good golfer, but a passionate one.  I have average means to pay for my pleasurable excitement (on the golf course)   I had been desparate throught the winter play the game.  So much so, that in addition to golf in California that I wanted to enjoy and have the chance to be with golf companions I really relate to, I also booked a trip to Myrtle and Charleston for mid April.  I booked tee times for True Blue ($150) and Caledonia ($160)  

Now consider this golf operators... I am on the verge of cancelling one or both of those tee times.  Why?  Because I got the desparation out of my system to play, and by that time nearly every course in my area will be open, or will be withing days of that time.  Here I won't need to pay more than $45-60 for high quality golf, and many fine courses can be had for $25-35.

Why should I be able to play excellent courses in a far more good public golf starved area like SoCal for decent rates like we experienced, (50 twilight Barona and ~50 for RC) than go to a golf rich environment and pay 3-4X as much for a round on courses that are not any better architecturally speaking?

I MEAN NO DISRESPECT TO MIKE STRANTZ's DESIGN of those two courses.  I have seen both, and they appear very fine design wise.  But, those prices are simply ripping me off, and now that I think about it, I resent it.  So, I am going to vote with my feet.

Maybe that is all that will be needed.  People willing to vote with their feet, refuse to pay exhorbitant prices and wait for the shakeout.  A pox on the bankers house that lent them rediculous amounts of depositors money to over landscape ego projects rather than design good golfing grounds.  And, for believing or lending on inflated and unrealistic proformas when no evidence ever seemed to be there to support an increase in golfers and a boom time for the sport.  Perhaps those chickens will come home to roost.  This all should eventually put things in a better equilibrium for the future when reality forces common sense.
 

I predict that a substantial number of courses that will NLE will be because of growing need for housing, particularly in developed areas. Right now, Marriott is considering selling Moutain Shadows Resort with its Executive Course in Scottsdale for real estate development. The land is just too valuable given the choice of spending big bucks to rehab the resort.In Sarasota, the Sarasota GC is going to go for housing development. In Philadelphia area, Upper Perkiomen, a public course, has been sold for real estate development and Melrose, a private club, has had offers to buy but is trying to maintain itself. Bala, a private club within city limits, turned down an offer a few years ago. There have been rumors that have been denied by ownership concerning Limekiln, a low cost public course, involving substantial offers for housing. The list goes on in other areas. Sooner or later, these courses will bite the dust. The numbers are just too big for ownership to turn down.

Steve

Tom D:

Hold on partner -- the fans of pessimism aren't being waved singularly by me -- they are taking place. I think you might have to look beyond the clients you're talking with because that's a narrow base to draw your conclusions from.

The industry was cranking out a course per day for a few years running because it was claimed we would need more and more courses to handle the "boom" of players. The issue became one of placing courses in the right area where the demand was extremely high. Unfortunately, that didn't happen because costs in those high demand areas were tailored more towards housing. Those courses that were built in sparsely populated areas needed to market themselves with a more practical plan instead of thinking of themselves as the next $100+ course!

Sprinkling courses all over the map simply was foolish and with the base of players falling -- with no upward movement likely in the next few years -- it's clear that it's not a question of whether a shakeout will occur but how deep will it be.

Tom -- do you actually think golf course owners are going to honestly say that things are thaaaaaaaaaaaat bad? Of course not. They don't want to sound alarm bells that may cause their own properties to be affected. The best way to judge it will be when courses are simply swallowed up to provide housing because it's more prudent financially.

The reality is that while certain smart people can successfully put a winning golf design forward that makes $$$ there are plenty of others who simply believed the merry-go-round would simply continue and all they had to do was get in on the game. Tom -- I'm not fanning the flames because the house is already simmering in a number of markets. I simply report what I hear.

Matt:

I didn't mean to imply that you were the only one fanning the flames.  I've seen about ten very pessimistic articles in the last twelve months.  And yo hardly have to tell me the business has slowed dramatically ... you should see the number of resumes on my desk from people with years of experience but no place to work!

Tom, it looked like everything I'd like to play was way up there $150+.  I checked out Legends web page and it looked like you had to stay there and do a package.  If I'm wrong on that somebody let me know.  I'd be happy to play there and check your course out.  

Tom D,

TPC is $165 in spring high season.  Tidewater is $176 w/cart.  Grande Dunes is $179.

I would be curious to know if there is another resort anywhere with as many different rate seasons, and consequently, different greens fees as is the case at Myrtle.  Nobody should draw the conclusion from this thread that the average greens fee in MB is anything like $100!  In July, you can play every day for a week for $250 total, without a golf package.  You can bring that down more still by just using newspaper coupons and so forth.