Is anyone aware of any attempts to study the inflation rate of greens fees?  I remember my dad telling me about how TOC was something like 15 pounds on his first visit in the mid 80s, and is now nearly 10x higher.  The story about the golf nut who payed $8 greens fees at PB in 1964 is pretty scary though -- that's a 50x increase in 40 years.  Can even Silicon Valley's real estate price increases compare to that?

If greens fees at top courses go up another 50x in the next forty years, I'm not sure my retirement savings will be sufficient to pay a $20K green fee in 2045.  Maybe I should play it now so I won't have to bother then

Most importantly, if PB is still considered a top course by most in 2045, will Matt Ward consider it "affordable" at $20K based on the value proposition of a once in a lifetime experience?

Tom and Sean are correct.  The market, as in discretionary income, along with the market, supply and demand in the amount of golf courses, affect the pricing of golf.  Other discretionary income sports like bowling are not as hard hit as they do not require a sizable investment for equipment and lane fees as golf clubs and green fees.  Believe me that I know how much a bowling ball costs because I'm in a league on Monday nights!

For the record, I played PB in 1978/79 and the green fee was $48. I remember, because it was expensive, even then.

Inflation was high in the general economy in the 70s, so that would have impacted green fees.

I play in the Pacific Northwest.  We have not in a serious way breached the $100 barrier (Bandon being the exception) in fact many local courses have seen almost no inflation in the last 10 years.  

A course played in 1994 was $45.  They try to get $50 on weekends now but complicated fee schedules used now rarely reach that figure.  

In our area of the country, it seems to me that simple supply and demand have reduced inflation to next to nothing and may in fact be deflationary in some instances.  

I will be interested to see what the public course in Cle Elum next to Tom Doaks private will be charging.  I just don't see much pricing power for these new courses beyond the player who visits once out of curiosity.

I played Pebble Beach for the first time in 1963, having recently arrived from Rhodesia. I wrote an article for South African Golf Magazine comparing the cost of golf in America to the cosy arrangements we had in Southern Africa. I cannot find the article at present,  but it went something like this.

"I played Pebble Beach Golf Links today and the beauty of the place and golfing exhilaration is only matched by its cost. The Green Fee was $7.00 and the caddie fee a rather steep $10.00. Compared to Nchanga G.C., that $17.00 would have paid for about seven or eight months of my dues."

Here is a link to the government inflation calculator.

ftp://ftp.bls.gov/pub/special.requests/cpi/cpiai.txt

For grins, I calculated my personal inflation index on average mid level public courses when I started in 1967 ($4 weekday, $6 weekend) until now.

$4 translates to $23.43 and $6 translates to $35.16. (presuming I did the math more accurately than my typical scorecard... )

In fact, that is what about what we pay around DFW for mid to high end publics now, which may not have even been invented in 1968.  And, the courses are better than Palatine Municipal Golf Course was in design (but not by much, it was a Larry Packard course) and certainly in maintenance.  Similar municipally run courses can still be had in DFW for under $30 weekends and under $20 weekdays.  So, for the bargain conscious public golfer, it golf imay be as good, as it ever was, unless the "average Joe"  total income hasn't kept up with inflation.

High end is a different story, somewhat.  Had I done this survey a few years ago, my greens fee for high end courses would be higher than the inflation rate, but it has come back down to normal levels.  In other words, methinks that PB and TOC are charigng more now because we'll pay it, where our forefathers never would.  But, we are learning!  As one article I read says, even mid wealthy people shop at Wal Mart now on staples, to save more for their luxuries.

So, while I grant you that Pebble Beach and St. Andrews have gone out of the statosphere in price, they are unusual ias prime tourist destinations.  You could argue that the locals who paid $7 (which would be about $40 now) in the 1960's were probably underpaying quite a bit at that time. I hope they realized what a deal they had!  

Our real problem as Americans lies in the fact that  our savings rate is statistically 0%.  We have perhaps enjoyed our pursuit(s) too much, too early.  The key to balancing our finances is not "now" or "later" its probably less at all times, unless you have a job where you can enjoy golf on someone elses expense account?

Jeff Brauer said:

Our real problem as Americans lies in the fact that our savings rate is statistically 0%

Our real problem as Americans (economically) lies in the fact that our incomes have not kept pace with inflation. It would cost $3.10 of 2000 dollars to buy what $1.00 could in 1976, but $1.00 of income in 1976 is only $2.00 of income today. We have lost 1/3 of the value of our incomes to inflation, making it incredibly hard to save.

AG,

As if on cue, the Dallas Morning News had an article about wage rates today, and you are right!  They note that for the most part, the lowest wage workers have been traditionally hardest hit.  However, in this recession, the white collar workers (probably due in part to the internet and computers allowing off shoring of many tech jobs) in the age group 30-44 were hardest hit.

Those would most likely make up the play at upscale publics, resorts and unique destinations.  I suspect that the really unique places will always have their draw, but others will have to find ways to offer specials to draw play.  For that matter, as you get older you start thinking (probably too late) about retirement savings, and get even more financially conservative generally.  And I think all age groups get a bit more conservative after every recession, as they learn their lesson a bit each time.  

Just my $0.02.  Or, with inflation, my $0.005......

Jeff Brauer said:

Quote

Our real problem as Americans lies in the fact that our savings rate is statistically 0%

Our real problem as Americans (economically) lies in the fact that our incomes have not kept pace with inflation. It would cost $3.10 of 2000 dollars to buy what $1.00 could in 1976, but $1.00 of income in 1976 is only $2.00 of income today. We have lost 1/3 of the value of our incomes to inflation, making it incredibly hard to save.

Jim,
Basically, the CPI indicates that prices in the U.S. have tripled since 1976, but national disposable income during that period of time has gone up much, much faster, on the order of 5 times.  Much of this is due to the extremely low inflation of the Greenspan years, averaging on 3.1% since 1987, and only 2.7% since 1992.  Since 1992, national disposable income has increased by about 68%, which corresponds pretty well to the golf boom.

The average savings rate in the U.S. is about 2.5%, which is one of the lowest in the developed world (contrasted, for instance, with just under 10% in Germany, or almost 16% in Japan.)  However, most economists attribute our low savings rate to extreme confidence in the economy as compared to other countries, rather than inflation/price problems.

I continue to suspect that the golf boom has been fueled almost entirely by:
a. the aging of the baby boomers and their quest for non-contact recreation.  
b. the aging of the baby boomers and their higher disposable incomes
c. the aging of the baby boomers and their demand for luxury housing, which often means golf course communities.

All of these mean that there will likely be some sort of a shake-out in the golf course market in years to come (which may have already begun), but I really can't see that affecting Pebble or the TOC, except by a slowing of the rate of increase of their greens fees.

Just out of curiosity I checked the journal I kept during my first trip to Scotland in 1976.  Some of the green fees were as follows:

Belleisle  £1.55
Carnoustie, Dornoch and Prestwick--£3.50 each
Blairgowrie and Troon--£5
Western Gailes--£6
Turnberry--£7 (non-guest rate)

These wer all day fees, BTW.........