Is the Golfing Boom Here to Stay?

[Mike Bodo]

I woke up yesterday morning to an interesting piece in the Morning Brew newsletter on the current golf boom taking place due to the pandemic (https://www.morningbrew.com/daily/stories/2020/11/13/pandemic-led-golf-boom ). As posited there and here, is this a one-off blip that will dissipate once the pandemic is over or does the growth witnessed have potential staying power? To the latter, the article cites that there is a lot of "new blood" entering the game and that the number of new junior golfers could increase to 500,000 by the end of the year. That's phenomenal growth.


I know mine and other courses around me have never been busier and I've heard much the same from others. At what point does this stand to create a new golf course development boom the like's we saw in 1990's or do you feel there is still an over abundance of supply out there? Should 2021 be a repeat of 2020 I have to believe there will be developers seeing dollar signs, which will translate to new course construction, which I think is good for the overall health and evolution of the game.

[Tom_Doak]

I don't know if everyone who played more golf this year will keep doing it after the pandemic is under control.  Regardless, I do not believe it would be enough to instigate a "new golf course development boom" in any case.  It may cause an uptick compared to the lows of the past decade, but not a boom.

[Craig Moore]

Most of us in the industry feel 2021 will be just as good if not better than 2020.  Interest in golf will still be high as other activities are limited, there wont be as much caution at the start of the season plus we have learned so much during the 2020 season (on how to handle the pandemic) it eliminates the rocky transition we all had to traverse at the start of 2020. 
The feed back I am receiving from our membership is 2020 was an absolute blast on the course, they are sad it is over and they can not wait for 2021.  All of this positivity after a season of limited amenities, tees times that were hard to come by, restrictions in place all year and beat up golf courses from cart tires and divots. 
One big take away from 2020..... the game is what matters most and not all the unneeded fluff. 

[Thomas Dai]

I have my doubts.
Atb

[Mike Bodo]

Craig, good to hear from you and even better to hear you guys had a successful season.    I plan to be up your way again next year. Just not sure when. Hopefully, for Summerball. Perhaps by then you'll have one or two more of the Langford holes restored. 

[Dan_Callahan]

There's a reason golf was in trouble pre-covid: For many folks, it's too expensive and it takes too long to play.


During covid, very little discretionary income was spent on travel/vacations, restaurants, gyms, movies, sporting events, concerts, etc. Which make the cost of golf more palatable. It's the only option left on the buffet table.


With the world being shut down and many people working from home, thereby eliminating commuting time, suddenly lots of people had way more free time than before.


Once covid is behind us, the cost thing is an issue again. And while many are predicting working from home is here to stay, I'll believe it when I see it.


In two years, it seems to me the same issues that were hurting golf a year ago will be just as much in play again.

[jeffwarne]

Interest in golf will still be high as other activities are limited....... 
One big take away from 2020..... the game is what matters most and not all the unneeded fluff.

Both are true.
Many kids turned to golf when their other activities were curtailed-some will stick with golf, having finally given it a chance.


As someone in the business, I'm grateful golf was hot, but I'm not sure I'm completely looking forward to a repeat of 2020 in terms of the sheer volume of play-groundhog day for 8 months and a full parking lot every day despite the fact we closed 2 weeks ago.

[John McCarthy]

I think a lot of folks discovered that there was a lot of fun to be had at the golf course.  People would not even try because of perceived stuffiness.  Once they tried it they figured out that while there are rules (socially and in the game) it is for everyone's good and bending a few in not the end of the world. 


Although I am not a fan of the Bluetooth speaker on the course, I have decided not to die on that hill.  Except that one time, a playing partner who was twenty years my junior played nothing but classic rock.  It sucked then, it sucks now.

[John Emerson]

Being that golf is has many hurdles to overcome for first-timers and long-timers, it still may see a small sustained uptick going forward.  Hedging that statement, I wouldn’t  be surprised if it returned to what we saw in 2019.

[V_Halyard]

Was discussing this with a couple of heavy statistical types.
FOR GRINS: We looked a 30 locations both public and private.
Using loosely defined anecdotal analytics, based primarily on the "new bodies to golf" metric, and the number of those "new bodies" that have become regulars and/or have joined public and private courses from March to October 2020, our rough estimate is that 20% to 25% of the new golfers will stick with the game.
The real wild card was how many of the EXISTING golfers will continue utilization at this pace, or will they reduce their play when the availability of other activities returns.

So our best guess was 20% Net Gain, which doesn't suck. The 100% YOY growth is of course absolutely unsustainable. And for full disclosure:
YES - there was quite a bit of science in this guesstimate, over 30 locations and a sample size of more than 7000 golfers.
NO - there was nowhere near enough scientific data discipline to publish any usable study.
Use it as a curiosity but don't build your business plan on it.
Do however feel free to use the NEW BODIES TO GOLF metric.
20% YOY growth should be a GCA Squad Goal

[Terry Lavin]

As long as the pandemic continues its toxic proliferation and shirking from home remains the new abnormal, golf will continue to grow. Tee time sheets will be full on most days of the week as long as the weather cooperates. Today and tomorrow here in Chicago, the high temperature will be around 60. Hard to find a tee time. November 19th!

[Pete_Pittock]

Great time for an innovating manufacturer to go with a cheap 7-8 club set.

[Mike_Trenham]

The single biggest challenge are the aging baby boomers, as they play less expect senior rates and pass away golf will have big challenges.  The National Golf Foundation erroneous estimates were in big part driven by the baby boomer impending demand as they would have more free time and money.


The value of being a Top Rated Type Golf Course will be of paramount importance, the other thing of value is being in close proximity (<20 minutes) to the best housing stock and a well run club/facility.


The Top 5 Clubs in Philadelphia as an example are full with an over supply of people wanting to join.  The other clubs are stable but membership development remains critical and this is one of the most reasonably priced private golf areas of the country.


There is an infrastructure arms race going on paid for with debt and an aging customer base.  There will be survivors but it will not be easy.

[Lou_Duran]

The single biggest challenge are the aging baby boomers, as they play less expect senior rates and pass away golf will have big challenges.  The National Golf Foundation erroneous estimates were in big part driven by the baby boomer impending demand as they would have more free time and money.


The value of being a Top Rated Type Golf Course will be of paramount importance, the other thing of value is being in close proximity (<20 minutes) to the best housing stock and a well run club/facility.


The Top 5 Clubs in Philadelphia as an example are full with an over supply of people wanting to join.  The other clubs are stable but membership development remains critical and this is one of the most reasonably priced private golf areas of the country.


There is an infrastructure arms race going on paid for with debt and an aging customer base.  There will be survivors but it will not be easy.

Same here in Dallas.  I marvel at the optimism despite all the surrounding dark clouds.  I wonder what happens when the free money dries up and employers demand bottom line results from their employees working remotely (like on the golf course).


Discretionary income AND time are key to golf's future.  BBs are dying at a rate of 1.825 Million annually, and the 63M+ that remain are becoming increasingly insecure about their finances considering that their after tax returns on mostly liquid investments are negative.


Will young people backfill and spend generously to keep the ball rolling?   Land prices near population centers continue to inflate, taxes and regulation are likely to increase.  What's going to give?  Maybe fertility rates (1.7 in the US currently, well below the 2.1 needed for a stable population) resulting in fewer mouths to feed?  A mix change in immigration?  Doubtful.   

[Jeff Schley]

Will young people backfill and spend generously to keep the ball rolling?   Land prices near population centers continue to inflate, taxes and regulation are likely to increase.  What's going to give?  Maybe fertility rates (1.7 in the US currently, well below the 2.1 needed for a stable population) resulting in fewer mouths to feed?  A mix change in immigration?  Doubtful.

Too much interpolation to answer almost any of those questions with an acceptable degree of accuracy. I don't think we actually need a boom in golf for it to be sustainable. It was oversupplied and the market corrected itself and perhaps we are still in a period of correction.

Although we are purists and see the value in the game moreso than the general population, there are other things kids and young people do in lieu of golf that has a great deal of value as well. My nieces and nephews enjoy coding camp and crossfit for example. Although I would support them to play golf and would make me happy, I see the value of these recreational interests as well.

There are just more things to do that continue to winnow traditional sporting activities such as golf. Not an indictment on golf, more towards how society evolves. I still see golf being a tranquil release in nature for as the urbanization of the country continues, we will need activities that give us that peace. Just another view that although golf maybe in a temporary upswing, if it dips, other activities will benefit and that won't necessarily be a bad thing.

[John Kavanaugh]

Will Willy Loman turn in his rater card when business travel never returns?

[Steve Lang]

   That's be the death of him...

[John Kavanaugh]

I have never been shy about taking the clubs on a business trip. Once I even just packed my golf shoes and glove along with three balls. Had a great time with Lou and Jeff at Craigs Ranch. Top ten in Texas I imagine.