I wonder what impact this had on the eventual pace of the tournament; aside from skulled shots (a la Fowler, for example), scores above bogey really weren't in play. That made it impossible for anyone to catch Kaymer once he vaulted to such a significant lead.
WW
Wade,
I was thinking about the same thing as I watched Kaymer struggle but maintain his lead on Saturday. I crunched some numbers to see what the difference might have been if water or OB or long rough was more in play. Here are some data from the weekends in the last 3 U.S. Opens. (Earlier years' hole-by-hole scores were not as easy to find.)
2014 U.S. Open, Pinehurst, par 70, scoring average rounds 3-4 = 73.11
Average # eagles per player per round: 0.090
Average # birdies per player per round: 2.23
Average # pars per player per round: 10.8
Average # bogeys per player per round: 4.30
Average # doubles per player per round: 0.53
Average # others per player per round: 0.052
2013 U.S. Open, Merion, par 70, scoring average rounds 3-4 = 74.21
Average # eagles per player per round: 0.034
Average # birdies per player per round: 2.36
Average # pars per player per round: 10.3
Average # bogeys per player per round: 4.34
Average # doubles per player per round: 0.74
Average # others per player per round: 0.25
2012 U.S. Open, Olympic, par 70, scoring average rounds 3-4 = 72.45
Average # eagles per player per round: 0.10
Average # birdies per player per round: 2.46
Average # pars per player per round: 10.9
Average # bogeys per player per round: 4.08
Average # doubles per player per round: 0.47
Average # others per player per round: 0.035
First, note that "others" were 5 times more common at Merion than at Pinehurst and 7 times more common than at Olympic. Doubles were also significantly more common at Merion, while the other scores happened at about the same rate.
Second, note the relative infrequency of these high scores among all the players who made the cut. Sure, if Kaymer had been leading on Saturday at Merion and played an average round, he would have been statistically likely to record a double or worse, but it wouldn't have been enough to bring him back to the field. I was surprised by this, having had the same intuition as Wade last week while watching.
For comparison, I made the same calculations for the 2014 Masters, labeling the 2nd and 13th holes as par 4s. (The weekend scoring average was 72.81, which necessitates the par adjustment for comparison with the U.S. Open scores.)
Average # eagles per player per round: 0.020
Average # birdies per player per round: 2.51
Average # pars per player per round: 10.4
Average # bogeys per player per round: 4.40
Average # doubles per player per round: 0.65
Average # others per player per round: 0.049
There were actually fewer "others" at the Masters this year than at Pinehurst. While doubles were more common at the Masters, they were still the most common at Merion among these four events.
In addition to having some water hazards and OB on (nearly) every hole, I recall that Merion also had penal, chip-out rough that was lacking at the other three events.
I'm as surprised to see the low number of high scores at Augusta (relative to the U.S. Open sites) as I am to see the overall scarcity of these high scores among the fields at these events.
JB