Bart,
I think your assessment is right on.
I enjoyed watching the golf more than ussual because I know the course personally, though I admit I have never played 3, 9, and 17 from the tees the qualifyers are playing from and I have not played the rest of the course at the new all the way back yardage. I did expect that Merion would play easier because of the lighter winds and wet on Thursday, and was glad to be wrong. It's too bad the course has been ribboned down as much as it has, but to keep par relevant given the equipment, ball, and strength of the modern player, that had to happen.
If we get wind and if the precipitation holds off, Merion will dry pretty quickly. I predicted 10 under would be the winning score due to the rains of the past 7 days. A good wind will make the course much tougher, due to firmness and effect on the ball in flight. I would like very much to see that happen and have a winning score lower than I factored.