I love this question...
I guess my thought process in all of this is which shot affects your decision to take driver out of the bag or not: The drive, or the second shot?
If the drive is too difficult to risk hitting the big stick, do you still gamble to try and reach. Or, if there is no sense in going for the green in two, should you bother with the driver?
Personally, I always look at the second shot. If I know the green is well guarded or will take a miracle shot to get there, why risk a mistake with driver if I know I am laying up? Conversely, if there is an opening to get home in two on the second shot, I will hit driver no matter how difficult the drive is. You have to take advantage of your scoring opportunities.
An Example: I recently played the Magnolia Course at Disney (for a PGA venue, I wasn't overly impressed), and the last par 5 there (#14) is brutal. Harsh dogleg right off the tee (about 590 from the back tees / 530 front), with trees and narrow landing area. But, there is a pond/creek that goes down the left side (about 150 yards from the green) and then fronts the green. Even if you mash a drive (fade) off the tee, you would need a solid fairway wood shot from there just to get home, let alone hold the green. There was no way I was getting there in two and I wasn't going to try. Because it was one of the more narrow driving holes on the course, I could take a hybrid down the middle, another hybrid layup and a wedge in. Much easier.