number of new courses being built in the U.S. is....

[PThomas]

..take a guess

if you read this recently pls don't spill the beans...I'm interested to see what people think

clue: my guess would not have been ANYWHERE near the number cited

[Mike_Cirba]

Paul,

I don't know the number, but depending on the source it's likely vastly overstated, and includes projects in "planning", which covers a variety of stages from "proposed" to "searching for funding" to "legal entanglements", to anything short of actual construction that sometimes take years if not decades to come to final determination.

[Garland Bayley]

150?

[Matt MacIver]

150 was my own ridiculously high number, so I'll trump it and say 175.

[jg7236]

100

Wasn't the number extremely high in the late 90's, around 300-400?  Maybe I am exaggerating, but I know a lot more courses were being built then as there are now.

[PThomas]

the answer - this from the NGF in the latest GOlf magazine, is...............

1057!

[Jeff_Brauer]

Paul,

Sadly, the NGF is notorious for this kind of reporting.  They have categories of "open for play", "under construction",  "renovations" and "In Planning."  They aren't too picky about distinguishing the nine holes from the 18 hole courses either, so if you took all five categories, they might total over 1000.  

However, they get reports from gca's like me, and some of us over report to make our portfolio look better.  And, NGF doesn't have the field staff to go out and verify other than the fax response they get.

I recall one gca who kept a listing of a 3 Hole remodel project in Omaha on the list for over a dozen years after completion so, presumably, he could see his name on the list when times were lean.  On the other hand, I tend not to respond to those lists, since I don't want a bunch of phone calls.  It may even out, but I bet there is more over reporting than the other way around.  

I think the actual number of new cousres is closer to (and probably below) the 150 already stated, with about 150 also closing.  Last year was the first year in a long time there was no net gain of golf courses.  In the lean, high gas price era of the 70's there were still about 150 courses built in the US of A, so that number makes sense to me.  Every time I think "no one is building courses" I recall that it is a very huge country, and there is no national economy, just several regional ones, driven mostly by housing.  So, 150 is possible, even if nothing is going on in your neck of the woods.

Heck, even a gca "doomed to mediocrity" (who shall remain nameless for this discussion.....) has two 18 holes in planning, two nine holes and two full reconstruction master plans, so someone must be doing something.

[PThomas]

Paul,

Sadly, the NGF is notorious for this kind of reporting.  They have categories of "open for play", "under construction",  "renovations" and "In Planning."  They aren't too picky about distinguishing the nine holes from the 18 hole courses either, so if you took all five categories, they might total over 1000.  

However, they get reports from gca's like me, and some of us over report to make our portfolio look better.  And, NGF doesn't have the field staff to go out and verify other than the fax response they get.

I recall one gca who kept a listing of a 3 Hole remodel project in Omaha on the list for over a dozen years after completion so, presumably, he could see his name on the list when times were lean.  On the other hand, I tend not to respond to those lists, since I don't want a bunch of phone calls.  It may even out, but I bet there is more over reporting than the other way around.  

I think the actual number of new cousres is closer to (and probably below) the 150 already stated, with about 150 also closing.  Last year was the first year in a long time there was no net gain of golf courses.  In the lean, high gas price era of the 70's there were still about 150 courses built in the US of A, so that number makes sense to me.  Every time I think "no one is building courses" I recall that it is a very huge country, and there is no national economy, just several regional ones, driven mostly by housing.  So, 150 is possible, even if nothing is going on in your neck of the woods.

Heck, even a gca "doomed to mediocrity" (who shall remain nameless for this discussion.....) has two 18 holes in planning, two nine holes and two full reconstruction master plans, so someone must be doing something.

yea I know Jeff

but even allowing for some slight exaggeration...

is this kind of reporting bad for the game??

[SB]

How is this reporting bad for the game?

As Jeff says, the NGF divides the courses into categories.  They currently report 158 9-hole courses and 218 18-hole courses as being under construction.  The rest are either in planning (might happen) or proposed (dream).  They also report that 103 9-holers and 73 18-holers opened in 2005, which is well down from nearly 500 a couple years ago.  For those of us in the business, we need to know about everything that's happening, particularly the stuff that has not started construction, and it's pretty easy to get to the bottom of what's really happening.

[PThomas]

Steve - this "optimistic" number might send a signal that the game is still growing in terms of number of players, don't you think?  of course, that number is flat at best right now

[Mike_Young]

Paul,

Sadly, the NGF is notorious for this kind of reporting.  They have categories of "open for play", "under construction",  "renovations" and "In Planning."  They aren't too picky about distinguishing the nine holes from the 18 hole courses either, so if you took all five categories, they might total over 1000.  

However, they get reports from gca's like me, and some of us over report to make our portfolio look better.  And, NGF doesn't have the field staff to go out and verify other than the fax response they get.

I recall one gca who kept a listing of a 3 Hole remodel project in Omaha on the list for over a dozen years after completion so, presumably, he could see his name on the list when times were lean.  On the other hand, I tend not to respond to those lists, since I don't want a bunch of phone calls.  It may even out, but I bet there is more over reporting than the other way around.  

I think the actual number of new cousres is closer to (and probably below) the 150 already stated, with about 150 also closing.  Last year was the first year in a long time there was no net gain of golf courses.  In the lean, high gas price era of the 70's there were still about 150 courses built in the US of A, so that number makes sense to me.  Every time I think "no one is building courses" I recall that it is a very huge country, and there is no national economy, just several regional ones, driven mostly by housing.  So, 150 is possible, even if nothing is going on in your neck of the woods.

Heck, even a gca "doomed to mediocrity" (who shall remain nameless for this discussion.....) has two 18 holes in planning, two nine holes and two full reconstruction master plans, so someone must be doing something.

Jeff,
If Mr. "Doomed for Mediocrity" has 6 projects in planning and some of us "Doomed for less than mediocrity bottom dwellers" have a few and there are only 150 or so opening in the next few years...then is it possible that there may only be 4 or 5 projects that would be of interest to this website???  Next thing you know some of the "Prepped for Greatness" crowd will be searching for some of this mediocrity just like a few years ago when the big boys decided to go after Upscale daily fee.   Never know....

[paul cowley]

Well I can say for sure that there are at least two under construction and three or more in planning in the USA.

[Tom_Doak]

And I have only one golf course under construction in the U.S., though two more overseas.  But we do have five more U.S. projects in planning, even though I am not at liberty to say where three of them are.  [The only two which are "official" are in Redmond, OR and Pope Valley, CA.]

[John Kirk]

Nicklaus Golf has a ton of projects listed as under construction.  I haven't looked in a while, but last time I checked they had 30 or 40 projects going, though not all are scheduled to open this year.

[Tom_Doak]

John:  Yes, but at least half of those are overseas.  I would be surprised if they opened more than a dozen new courses in the US this year, and they're the leaders of the pack.

[SB]

Paul,

The NGF should definitely be more clear in some of its press releases, and should also point out trends - if you compare 2006 to 2004, the number of courses under construction (in any category) has fallen by about 10%, which was probably down considerably from 2002.  

The sort of bigger picture issue is that NGF has so much data, that it takes tremendous effort to dig through it all to make any sort of prognostication.  For example, 2005 rounds were essentially flat to 2004.  However, public rounds were up 1% and private rounds were down 1%.  Also, spending per round was up around 4%.  All interesting stuff and good to know on a high level basis, but without really getting into the data, you don't know if that's because more high end courses started reporting, certain key markets improved because of weather, or because people actually were spending more.  Likewise with the course data, at some point the numbers will drop considerably when they figure out how to screen out the projects that will never happen.  One day the NGF will report lower numbers and someone in the construction industry will panic because the pipeline dropped by 25%.  

The NGF has a tough job and a lot of data to sort through.  I don't envy them.  I think Mr. Brauer should start filling out his forms to help out.  He's right, though, there is a lot more over reporting (and duplicate projects with different names) than underreporting.

[Tom_Doak]

Their data is just a big steaming pile.  There are so many duplications and cross-references; I've seen one project listed as three different ones in the past.  I wonder how many more courses they have "in planning" at Bandon Dunes?

If you are making any decisions on the basis of the NGF reporting that rounds are down 1%, good luck to you.  For golf architects, the only thing that's important is understanding your niche and what it means when the phone is ringing, or not ringing.

[Scott_Burroughs]

And I have only one golf course under construction in the U.S., though two more overseas.  But we do have five more U.S. projects in planning, even though I am not at liberty to say where three of them are.  [The only two which are "official" are in Redmond, OR and Pope Valley, CA.]

And those 5 must not include Harmony Club, which, according to Kent Hassell a few weeks ago here, still has a chance of being built.  New ownership or something.

Bend/Redmond sounds like a real up-and-coming golf destination, with what was already there (Sunriver and others) + 2 at Pronghorn, The Tribute, and your project.

Had to consult the map for Pope Valley, CA.  Just a few miles from Mayacama, I see.  I wonder if a site visit during KPVI next spring could be possible?

[Tom_Doak]

Scott:

Ask me in a few months what the status of the California project is.  By then we could have nine holes underway (or even finished) and be starting work on the main 18 -- or we could still be thinking wistfully about it.

Another entity has bought an option on The Harmony Club though they have not yet closed the deal.  If this group does close the deal they do not intend to build the course for a little while yet, but they want us under contract to build it eventually.  But I didn't count that among the five.