As a general rule to apply across ALL golf courses, I agree with you. But, one thing that always made the back nine at ANGC in the Masters so special and exciting to me was the fact that truly ANYTHING could happen. Not so much the case anymore. Even at 485 yards on 13 (1997 length) if you dont hit the fairway, you're not getting there in two. Same with 15.
I doubt we'd be hearing any of the "How far do you think a 3 would go here?" 46 year old Nicklaus '86 stories if the 15th in two was only a privilege reserved for the longest straightest hitters.
As with those that call this now the US Open, I just loved so much the fact that it was different, and now it's not so much the case.
Damn, I sure didn't think anyone would be arguing the position that a 530 yard hole is just too long for today's pros!
Nicklaus in '86 was still a pretty long hitter, maybe not top 10 distance wise anymore but certainly easily in the top half of those remaining after the cut that year. IIRC he hit a 3 iron into that green, and it was a pretty damn good shot. Who other than Fred Funk will be needing a 3 iron this year, assuming a well placed drive and using a driver. I suspect some players will use a 3W for position and/or to allow working the ball and still have less than a 3 iron home!
Would it have been as dramatic if Nicklaus had a 6 or 7 iron into that green? Certainly the shot would have been far less risky, and far less impressive to hit that close for an eagle. And I'd submit that a Nicklaus proxy like Fred Couples (former long knocker getting on in years but still competitive) would probably only have a 6 or 7 iron in if the hole was the same length as 1986.
Maybe you need to watch some of that 1986 coverage and remember that it wasn't unusual for players to lay up, and people were saying Seve should have laid it up instead of plunking his 4 iron into the pond. Those holes were intended to be eagle opportunities with two superlative shots, not just something somewhere in the fairway should give you a shot where only DMoriarty would lay up. That might make for better TV but it definitely does NOT make for better golf!