Interesting Thread Timing.....
Having just come back from Bandon yesterday and run into a senior USGA person near home today, our conversation quickly morphed from all my superlatives about BD/PD/BT and onto exactly this question.
The answer: THERE IS NO F......G WAY TRUMP NAT'L EVER GETS A US OPEN IN OUR LIFETIMES!!! Redanman and Matt, you are both wrong(Matt only partially).
According to this person (and he/she is quite senior) Trump is the butt of quite a few laughs one town over from Bedminster. While all acknowledge that the course is good, and a sturdy test, and that the Donald and his minions never cease to blatantly and persistently lobby for such an event, "it is over the dead bodies of quite a few Exec. Cmte and Senior USGA officials that the Open would come to anything with that much self-propelled hype and pomp."
As for Baltusrol falling in/out, that isn't the real issue. The members there will always seek another major and have the track record to deserve such, but the Far Hills folks are quite happy with the existing venues in the NYC metro area and Baltusrol clearly falls behind them for preference (especially post a well-received PGA).
I could see Trump trying to buy himself a PGA (only if he is successful getting the 2nd course and that is by no means a given as he's sucked his immediate neighbor's wells dry and rightly offerred to dig them deeper ones). The PGA loves showcasing itself so close to NYC and can be bought (but the Donald's promises will have to be cold cash). The local township is not ready to roll over and give him the 2nd course until the water and traffic issues are "near perfectly" resolved.
If the Donald were to buy his way onto the circuit with a "showcased" tour event and then buy his way up to a PGA, the beginning of which he is trying to do in Briarcliff Manor (by looking to get an "event" variance with the town and county) then he'll very much preclude almost any USGA event from ever occuring at Trump Nat'l.
The bluebloods don't care much for his hype and self-promotion...only certain members of this treehouse seem to be so inclined to buy into his bs on a wholesale basis.
Did anyone manage to see the NYT excerpt from the upcoming Trump book that debunks many of the myths that Trump propogates...or were you too busy making videos to submit for next Apprentice?
Tom Doak,
As you rightly point out, Erin Hills isn't even open-for-play and certainly not proven as a Open-capable venue just yet, but it is a project designed to eventually reach that position and the USGA has been given a very active role in influencing it's facilities and course design. I had a chance to discuss it recently and see some photos of it from a very-involved participant and it appear to look awe-inspiring. IMHO, it is likely to eventually become the de facto Midwest US Open site. It's status as a daily fee and public facility will only lend further credibility to such a decsional process.