Is Course Contraction The Key To Recovery?

[W.H. Cosgrove]

The pacific Northwest has some struggling courses too. I too believe there will be some contraction.  That's great as long as they don't contract my toy.

Golfers and the industry has allowed golf to balloon to 5 hours  for weekend rounds.  Greens fees are out of sight and conditioning expectations are ridiculous.  

I see a few courses in my area that are well maintained, public and reasonably priced that do very well.  Never mind the five+ hour rounds on weekends.  I am also seeing SEVERAl mid level private clubs unable to find an audience.  Speed of play is much better and the courses are generally more interesting.  Conditioning for the most part is better but has slipped as budgets tighten.  

I fear that the top and bottom ends will survive and the middle will disappear.  A new take on the rich get richer and the poor get poorer.  When all considered, it is no more expensive to join a private club for an avid player (2 or more times a week).  What keeps players from going that route and receiving the benefits of a private club?

[SB]

Tommy,

That's my point.  New courses like Westridge won't get developed because of recent restrictions, regardless of how crappy they are (not sure if Westridge is, in fact, crappy)

Who will get developed?  I don't know the zoning, but I'd love to own:  Rancho San Juaquin, Newport Beach Golf Course, Santa Ana CC, Riverview, or anything built in a square piece of land 30 years ago.

[A.G._Crockett]

SBusch
Thirty years old isn't the type of course that I thought you were referring to in your first post.  The "old" courses in most places are private clubs which typically carry very little debt service on their property, and the club's management then becomes the primary issue.  The vast majority of these clubs have weathered bad economies, etc., before, and probably will again.
The stuff built in the past 30 years is different.  In many cases, these courses are built within a housing development, and using the land for further housing may not be possible, due to failure of the land to perk, zoning issues, lack of road frontage, or other local limitations.  
The courses that are in jeopardy in most places are the CCFAD's that are NOT tied into a housing development.  There was a recent thread on GCA about Centennial here in Atlanta, a Jeff Brauer/Larry Nelson course that is less than 20 yrs. old, that has just closed and will become a housing development that just got squeezed out of a very tough market.  It was a good daily-fee layout, no housing, but just couldn't make a go of it.  
Meanwhile, the old line clubs seem to be prospering.  Next month, you'll see Tiger and the boys playing at the Capital City Club's new Crabapple course (Fazio), on which they spent about a bajillion dollars.  Their Brookhaven course (dating back to the 20's) is alive and well, too.  With a few exceptions, like the Raleigh CC (Ross) in NC, this will continue to be true, and Raleigh is apparently a management problem that has been salvaged by a white knight.

[SB]

AG. -

My bad, I should have said "older" clubs, and think we're seeing the same tea leaves.  Courses built from 1950-1970 are probably in the most trouble.  I'm in Atlanta too, and am watching with interest what's happening here.  While Centennial was fairly new, Metropolitan was built in 1970, Green Valley was pretty old, too.  They're trying to bulldoze Lakeside, it's from the 50's.  Someone told me that a course out I-20 west recently was turned into houses.  But, it can happen to private clubs, too, just look at The Standard Club.

While most of the clubs in Atlanta are fine, there are many in other cities that are not so fine.  In many cities, the flight to the suburbs was so strong that a number of urban private clubs are in trouble.  I agree with you, the members will hold out as long as they can, but there are a number of clubs looking for white knights right now.  In some cases, the only white knight will be a developer.  

It really just depends on the demographics of each town.  But your're right, In most cases, the REALLY old courses with weak locations have already been weeded out.

Send me an e-mail if you ever need a playing partner.  I'm new to town and looking to get out.