Are Long Hitters More Likely to Be Patsies?

[DMoriarty]

Well if this doesnt rustle a few feathers on a few peacocks out there, I dont know what will.

Any time anyone suggests that strategy sometimes allows the shorter, thinking player to beat a longer hitter, the response is always the same:  Who says long hitters cannot be smart, too?   Well of course they can.  Tiger Woods for example.  And of course long and straight and smart will always beat short smart and straight.  That being said, I do think that there is quite a large group of big bangers out there who make themselves vulnerable by less than intelligent strategic decisions.

Here is my theory:

 (1)  Hard swinging long hitters tend to choose the most aggressive line if that line can get them significantly closer to the green, even if they face substantial risk in so doing.  This is especially true if the long shot allows the player to get near the green in one less shot.  (In two on par 5, in one on par 4.)

 (2)   Hard swinging long hitters tend to avoiding challenging strategic hazards or taking strategic risks when they can get closer to the hole by so avoiding such risks.  

 (3)  Hard swinging long hitters are less likely to back way off and play very conservatively when the opportunity arises (opponent in big trouble/ out of the hole/ a big lead.)  

Put these together, and you have the makings of a player who is not necessarily maximizing his chance at winning the hole/ minimizing his score.

[JSlonis]

DMoriarty,

Maybe I'm not reading this properly, but it seems to me that your 1st and 2nd points contradict each other.

[DMoriarty]

JSlonis,

I dont think so.  The second point refers to those situations where it may be more advantageous to play away from the hole for lie or angle or the like.  I think the big hitter tends to ignore this option, thinking his distance will be more of an advantage.

[Tim_Weiman]

Dave,

There is a very nice fellow I play with a couple times a year who is in his late twenties, has as a swing like John Daly and plays every shot in the most aggressive manner possible. He routinely hits 175 yard 8 irons and drives in the 325 yard range.

The trouble is that he usually doesn't score that well. Part of his problem is the lack of a short game. Little wedge shots just aren't that much fun for him. But, he also generally has no interest whatsoever in anything resembing course management. He is the golf equivalent of live by the sword, die by the sword. Aggressive as could be on every shot. Full speed ahead.

This fellow is a bright guy, but getting him to play more conservatively would be tough to do. I think he genuinely gets more pleasure out of banging a big drive than the rest of the game combined.

Funny thing. His best friend is a guy that struggles to hit 230-240 yard drives but usually beats him!

[zmatzkin]

Doesn't the long hitter have more trouble making the "smart" play simply because he/she has more options?  It is pretty easy to "decide" to hit it to the flat, wide landing area short of the trouble when you don't have the power to attempt the other options...

Zach

[Tommy_Naccarato]

I think there is a huge difference between a long hitter that plays in competitively in tournaments compared to a long player that doesn't.

[Tim_Weiman]

Shivas:

No! My game isn't worth mentioning these days. But, it is fun to occasionally play with the two guys I mentioned. They are such close golfing buddies, but play such completely different games. It is pretty cool to watch them.

That aside, don't you find there are many golfers capable of hitting long shots but who don't have the consistency where it is safe to just bang away? For these guys, isn't strategy alive and well?

[DMoriarty]

Shivas, I dont think one safe play on a day when you were obviously not hitting your irons very well is all that relevant.  In fact, your description supports my theory more than hurts it.  Look at your description.  You "pussed another wedge" . . . took your "wussy little par 5 like a man" . . . " etc.   Not the words of the man who takes enjoyment out of out-thinking his opponents.   Think of your comments regarding my conservative play on CPC 16 at Cypress.  Plus, I have seen you play and have very rarely ( or never)seen you make the conservative play off the tee.  The only time I have ever seen you hit a drive on a par 5 with anything but eagle in your mind was when you were trying to reach the huge par 5 at Olympic (15?) with a 4 iron, 2 iron, 7 iron, and that of course was a bet.    

As far as whether taking the aggressive line is a bad play, it definitely depends on the situation hole etc.  But it isnt always the best play even for long hitters.   I think when you describe the games of long hitters you tend to concentrate on the long hitter hitting a perfect shot.  Most of us dont always hit perfect shots, even if our handicap is pretty low.  A double bogey from an errant drive on an agressive line costs two birdes from being agressive.  Or in your case it costs more since you say you will miss the green with your wedge anyways.

I disagree that short hitters hit it short because of a swing flaw.  I am not talking about a tour pro against a short hack.  Picture a short hitter who has a handicap less than or equal to yours.  If the short hitter with a swing flaw is scoring better than you, then there really must be something wrong with your thought process.  I think the reality is that the short hitter probably doesnt have a major swing flaw (or if he does he has made it work for him) actually  and your thought process is actually only partially flawed.    

[DMoriarty]

Doesn't the long hitter have more trouble making the "smart" play simply because he/she has more options?  It is pretty easy to "decide" to hit it to the flat, wide landing area short of the trouble when you don't have the power to attempt the other options...

Zac, I think this is true to some extent-- the short hitter may sometimes be forced into the smarter play.  Although, I do have trouble understanging how the addition of a choice can make a long hitter dumber.  

Also, I think your point is more cogent on courses  I would consider to be not very strategic or vertically strategic, where players take the same line, but try to hit it different lengths.  Whenever I think of strategy I usually think of more horizontally, where two players can purposefully head in two directions off the tee and meet up later at the green.  These holes tend to provide real choices for both long and short hitter, i think.  

dave, are you missing a word in #2 or something?  I really didn't get what that said.  However if it means that long hitters dont' play angles, that's all wrong.  Long hitters play angles probably more than short hitters.  Think of it this way:  the long hitter actually has the ability to take more advantage of the angle than the short hitter.  Pick a straight 400 yard hole where the good angle is from the left side of the fairway because a deep bunker fronts the right front portio of the green and the left side kicks the ball right (think reverse redan).  The long hitter hits it 300 yards within 6 inches of the rough on the left.  The short hitter hits it 220 within 6 inches of the rough on the left.  Who has the better angle?   This is simple geometry.  The long hitter's angle is better than the short hitter's.

Seems like all you are saying is that the big hitter could sometimes gain a big advantage if he played the angles.  I agree with this.  But that doesnt mean he will play the angles.  

We have had this exact conversation before and your conclusion was that the long hitter should just blast down the middle and get close enough to hit a wedge or a short iron, because then the angle doesnt matter.  Why risk the trouble on the edge (even if it is just rough) if you can hit a wedge from the middle?

[JLahrman]

I find that long hitters are wilder even when trying to play shots the same distance as a short hitter.  If I'm trying to hit a 245 yard 2-iron off the tee to the same place that Grandpa is trying to hit his driver, my shot is still going to be wilder.  So even if I know what I'm doing strategically, my execution could still be poorer.

This may be unique to me though.  I'm 6'6 and when my shots go wrong they go WAY wrong.  All you 5'10ers go home, put a ball at the foot of your stairs, stand on the first step, and address the ball.  Tell me you're not going to be much wilder.

[DMoriarty]

Shivas, I am sure it was a 4 iron, 2 iron, 7 iron.  If I was wrong about anything it is the 7 iron.  I remember thinking at the time (and discussing with you later) that you should have hit the 2 iron off the tee instead of the 4 iron because it would have been easier to get good contact and because you could have potentially gotten more run.  See how long hitters make bad decisions?  

In this day and age, I think you are going much to far to find your short hitter.  Think of my drive vs. yours.  If we both hit decent drives you outdrive me by 40-60 yards, easy.  In my book that makes me short at least in comparison to you.  Now if only I was a 3 . . .

[zmatzkin]

Zac, I think this is true to some extent-- the short hitter may sometimes be forced into the smarter play.  Although, I do have trouble understanging how the addition of a choice can make a long hitter dumber.  

Also, I think your point is more cogent on courses  I would consider to be not very strategic or vertically strategic, where players take the same line, but try to hit it different lengths.  Whenever I think of strategy I usually think of more horizontally, where two players can purposefully head in two directions off the tee and meet up later at the green.  These holes tend to provide real choices for both long and short hitter, i think.  

I wouldn't say it makes him dumber, but that it give him more of an opportunity to make a bad decision...

What about a dogleg?  Doesn't the longer hitter have the option to attempt the carry over the trees, bunker, hazard, or whatever is at the corner?  Isn't that "horizontal"?  The short hitter can hit driver straight up the fairway without going through, but can't ever carry the corner.  The long hitter has more options - he has to decide how much to cut off, and maybe pick the right club as to not go through...just more options and more chance for a bad call.

I would put myself in the "long hitter who is not consistent enough to hit the needed shot every time" category previously mentioned...  I try to pick my agressive shots very carefully.  My miss is right, so that usually means evaluating where a miss to the right will put me.  I do care about my total score.  I congratulate myself when I am smart(or scared) enough to not try a risky long shot and end up making an easy par, but only because I hate double bogeys so much.  But putting for eagle is just so much fun...

[DMoriarty]

Dave, you're not short.  But even not being short, are you saying your swing isn't flawed?  That's the point.  Even guys who hit it pretty far have real swing flaws, even on their good shots.  Guys who hit it 230 (except the seniors who were long in the day) have flawed swings on all their shots.  

Short is relative.  In my matches against David Kelly or you, I am short.  In my matches against Lynn we are closer, distance wise (if I get it in the air).  In matches against my mom I am a big banger.  

My swing?  Of course it is flawed, that is why I added the thing about the 3 index.  Someone who has my distance but a 3 handicap probably doesnt swing like me.   Picture me with Lynn's swing.

Besides,  my swing isnt flawed anymore, I took a lesson yesterday.  I am a new man.

[Lou_Duran]

Good course management is hardly the monopoly of the short hitter.  I've played with many powder puffs who swing out of their shoes, generally underclub, and otherwise play a game which minimizes their chances of scoring.  The better players who also hit the ball short normally possess a superb short game.  Their bad shots don't disperse as much, and they stay in the game by keeping the ball in play.

Try to get a long-ball hitter with an undisciplined swing to throttle down, and what you often get is a shorter, just as crooked hitter.  While it may seem stupid for a guy who can hit a 3-iron 250 yards to use a driver on a 350 yard hole,  it may not be so if he hits his iron just as crooked as he does his driver.  At least with the driver, he'll be that much closer to the green.

It also seems axiomatic that the longer hitter enjoys more strategic choices than his shorter counterpart.  Courses with diagonal hazards, doglegs, and trees provide more opportunities to a guy like Tiger Woods than to Corey Pavin.  When Tiger hits an errant shot when challenging a hole, it sticks out like a sore thumb and people might question his judgement.  The short hitter is less often presented with these risk/reward opportunities, and as a result, by having to play a more conservative game, he might come across as being smarter.

[Patrick_Mucci]

DMoriarty,

I was thinking about your hypothesis.

I was thinking about all those hard swinging patsies on the
PGA Tour, Nike Tour, Champions tour, etc., etc..

Then I thought about all those plus 3, 4 and 5 handicap patsies who play in the US Amateur, US Mid Amateur and many other amateur events.

And, I came to this conclusion.

It's built into each golfer's handicap.

Each golfer's strengths and weaknesses are built into their handicap.

If a hard swinging, long hitting golfer falls victim to the shortcomings you allege, it will be reflected in their handicap.

If on the other hand, those hard swinging, long hitting golfers don't fall victim to the shortcomings you allege, it will be reflected in their handicap.

That's what's so great about the handicap system, it factors in everything, good and bad, and it is the ultimate indicator of one's ability to score.

Even a cheater has his misdeeds reflected in his handicap, which is the base from which he competes.  If he posts a score lower than he shot, those he plays against in the future will benefit when competing against him.

The handicap system accounts for all things good and bad in playing golf, including course management.

But, that's just my opinion, you could be wrong  

[DMoriarty]

Zack, doglegs are interesting because they are both vertical and horizontal, as are cape holes (I know I am using the bastardized meaning.)  Still though, if it is a good cape or dogleg, the lesser player does have options just a different spectrum of distances to try to cut.  

Patrick and Lou.  

Definitely many long hitters play smart, and some on the tour is an example of this.  But I think my theory even applies at the highest level to some degree.   Stand behind Riviera 10 and watch how many go for it, and count what they score compared to the people who go left.  It is amazing how many go for it and how few benefit from that decision.  I just think it is hard to pass up a chance at the glory of an eagle if it isnt likely.  

Big hitters really, really like hitting it big.  Because of this, I think they sometimes do even when the shouldnt.  You see the same things in other sports.  Go hang out at an open college basketball course or at college intermurals.  It is often a team of smart but less physically talented players that will consistently beat teams of more talented players.  The talented players like to dunk and jump and use their physical talents, and the strategy of the game sometimes gets set aside.  

Patrick, I agree (to a degree) that all this gets built into the Handicap Index.  But I am not sure how this matters on this thread . . . But take a long and a short three and have them play and if the short three wins, the long three will more than likely think he got beat by an inferior player.

[Patrick_Mucci]

DMoriarty,

I think your theory is more handicap related then you think.

Your example might be true for the higher handicap players, I don't think it's true for the lower handicap players.

Inside, a scratch handicap knows why he lost or why he won.

I do know one thing.  I haven't met many plus 5 handicaps who hit their driver 230 yards.

In addition, I think equipment has short changed the NON-POWER hitter in that it is much harder to shape shots today.

The equipment and the resulting difficulty in moving the ball has turned the game into POWER ball, and away from shotmaking.

Advantage....... long ball.

[DMoriarty]

Patrick, I still don't really get the connection.  

Pick two equally indexed players, one long and one short, pick a neutral strategic course, and I will take the short hitter in a bet, sight unseen.  The short hitter may not win every time, but my observations lead me to believe that he will win more often than not.  Match Play.

Now if you get to the plus 5 range, I agree that you wont find many 230 hitters, and the differences in distance less and the players more within the same realm of good decision-making.

But . . . I keep coming back to Riviera No. 10.  Why is it that so many pros go for that green when a quick at look at past results would indicate that it is usually the sucker's play?  Does handicap explain this?  

[Patrick_Mucci]

DMoriarty,

If they are equally indexed handicapers, they should split
50-50.

They may have taken different routes to get there, but their handicaps reflect that they shoot the same scores.

I'll take the longer player, as length, like speed can't be coached, and the longer player probably has more potential to lower his scores then the shorter player.

[zmatzkin]

Pick two equally indexed players, one long and one short, pick a neutral strategic course, and I will take the short hitter in a bet, sight unseen.  The short hitter may not win every time, but my observations lead me to believe that he will win more often than not.  Match Play.

I read this as you saying you don't believe in the handicap system.  Should longer hitters get extra strokes (I am all for that)? 2 players with equal (and honest) handicaps should split their matches in the long run.  If the short hitter consistently beats the longer player his handicap should be better - he is a better player.

[Steve Lang]

Patsies no... more like Jedi seduced by the Dark-Side.. it depends on how strong the force is..

I believe the question was originally asked independent of handicap issues.. and in that context, swing flaws and all abounding at all indexes, the long hitter's propensity to "take-themselves-out" by relying on lower probability and lower accuracy "long-shots" has to predominate their results.  It also leads them to more spectacular results when everything is clicking, than the plodder will ever experience.

[THuckaby2]

I gotta go with Shivas here also, based on experience.  To me, if a guy can hit the ball long, he has to have some skill at the game - in general.  

Like Patrick said, you can't teach distance.

TH

[Kenny Lee Puckett]

I love to hit the ball short - With the Lob Wedge!!!

Seriously, the long hitter has a huge advantage in match play assuming the handicaps are equal for Shivas's very point:  In match play, make the other guy perform.  Even short-sided in the rough with a Maple Tree blocking to a fall-away pin, the shorter hitter has to perform first which gives the long-baller (And Chicks do dig the L.B.) a strategic decision-making advantage.  Also, a big hitter's mistake in match will only cost a single hole, not two plus strokes.  And the longer hitter can cancel one of those shots on a longer hole with reaching a green in two that a shorter player hits in three.  A bad shot will generally effect a short hitter more as they have less margin of error.

Even so, the shorter hitter has the advantage in Medal.  Ernie Els consistently played shorter of the tee and into the fairway down the stretch in the 1997 U.S. Open at Congressional to hit first and apply the pressure to his fellow competitors.  Pavin, Kite, Janzen are not big bangers, but they have the hardware to prove they got game.

Sam Snead once said "There are 90 ways to escape from the long rough after a big drive, but no way to make up lost distance."

Since most of my play is Match (Including a home course team match vs. Stanwich this Sunday), I look forward to showing my opponents all of the various places you can hit it at Bushwood and create those insincerely, thinly voiced "Nice recovery shot (You lucky pain in the ...)" - a shot most straight hitters do not encounter enough to pull off.

KLP

JWK