Next ten years for architects.

[Tiger_Bernhardt]

I have enjoyed some close friendships in the industry over the years. It seems and is no secret that most of the larger shopsare laying off a good number of quality people. Obviously work in the US and the world outside of China and several other parts of Asia are at a standstill. The new course and real estate markets have a healthy period of over supply to work their way through. I have felt it is either go to China or become a restoration/renovation small shop to survive for several years. What does the the treehouse thingis the trend to maintain work for these quality people whose work we love.

[Adrian_Stiff]

I dont think there is a nice answer to this simply because golf architects primarily earn their money from building new golf courses and there are going to very few new golf courses built in the near future. In the UK there is virtually no rebuild market, in the US I assume monetary cutbacks will inhibit rebuild and restoration plans, but there will be some. Recovery in the golf course market can only really come sometime after the economic gloom cloud lifts, I think golf will be someway down the recovery road as there is this over supply of courses (in the UK). Resort golf is struggling, many build outs have the golf course with half built homes and that often means half full golf courses, the paymasters will want to see these resorts full before they consider expansion plans or start new resorts.

I said on another thread we need to lose 9 out of 10 architects. I think when it starts again it will be South East Asia and Eastern Europe. I don't know much about SE Asia but certainly in several European countries there are very few golf courses and country clubs and as these contries emerge into westernization golf will likely play a part. There will always be odd cases where someone wants a trophy or maybe a road disects a course and a new one is needed but to answer the Q.... Its going to be bad.

[Mark_Fine]

If you are a purist, the next ten years might be troubling.  I say that because I can see the next ten years as what might someday be called the “modernization” period?  I think the lack of new course construction is drawing big name architects back into the renovation market.  I question how many of them who are used to doing their own thing are going to take the time or have the passion to research the evolution of an old golf course and some dead architect and maybe bring back some of what has changed vs. just do their own thing?  For those of us who have been working in this area, I can tell you that it takes a tremendous amount of time and patience and sometime years of education of committees, members, etc.  Case in point, I recently lost a project to restore/renovate an old James Harrison course to a celebrity architect that I am absolutely convinced would never have pursued such a course if he didn’t need the work.  We had found old drawings, photographs and aerials, etc.  Do you think he any interest in any of this stuff.  I think you know the answer 

[David Stamm]

If you are a purist, the next ten years might be troubling.  I say that because I can see the next ten years as what might someday be called the “modernization” period?  I think the lack of new course construction is drawing big name architects back into the renovation market.  I question how many of them who are used to doing their own thing are going to take the time or have the passion to research the evolution of an old golf course and some dead architect and maybe bring back some of what has changed vs. just do their own thing?  For those of us who have been working in this area, I can tell you that it takes a tremendous amount of time and patience and sometime years of education of committees, members, etc.  Case in point, I recently lost a project to restore/renovate an old James Harrison course to a celebrity architect that I am absolutely convinced would never have pursued such a course if he didn’t need the work.  We had found old drawings, photographs and aerials, etc.  Do you think he any interest in any of this stuff.  I think you know the answer 

Mark, who is Harrison and which courses has he done?

[Ian Andrew]

we need to lose 9 out of 10 architects

10% are gone already - 10% more will go by the end of the year - but that will be about it.

Food for thought:

I was around for the last bust in the early 1990's. There was almost no work for around 2 years. The same things were said and the same doom and gloom was offered for golf architects. We'll start building more courses again in a few years and clubs will get better financial footing too.

I do think the "boom" is done for this generation - but this is not the 30's and there was still work done then too.

I do think people will need to get by on less work for quite some time.

This would be a lousy time to start a new design business.  

[Adrian_Stiff]

we need to lose 9 out of 10 architects

10% are gone already - 10% more will go by the end of the year - but that will be about it.

Food for thought:

I was around for the last bust in the early 1990's. There was almost no work for around 2 years. The same things were said and the same doom and gloom was offered for golf architects. We'll start building more courses again in a few years and clubs will get better financial footing too.

I do think the "boom" is done for this generation - but this is not the 30's and there was still work done then too.

I do think people will need to get by on less work for quite some time.

This would be a lousy time to start a new design business.  

Your post makes no sense,what do you mean? Early 90s were THE BOOM!!!! wHAT ARE YOU SAYING?

[Dick Kirkpatrick]

Perhaps Ian had a memory lapse or maybe even a senior moment. LOL

1987 to 1992 were the busiest years of my 50 plus years in the business.

[Ian Andrew]

1992 to 1994 were the years I was refering to.

[Mark_Fine]

David,
Harrison worked for a number of years for Donald Ross and you can see that influence in some of his courses.  He did numerous designs (check out C&W for a list). 

Ian,
I think we are in extraordinary times (I really hope it is only a two year dip but I'm not so sure). 

[Dick Kirkpatrick]

If you are a purist, the next ten years might be troubling.  I say that because I can see the next ten years as what might someday be called the “modernization” period?  I think the lack of new course construction is drawing big name architects back into the renovation market.  I question how many of them who are used to doing their own thing are going to take the time or have the passion to research the evolution of an old golf course and some dead architect and maybe bring back some of what has changed vs. just do their own thing?  For those of us who have been working in this area, I can tell you that it takes a tremendous amount of time and patience and sometime years of education of committees, members, etc.  Case in point, I recently lost a project to restore/renovate an old James Harrison course to a celebrity architect that I am absolutely convinced would never have pursued such a course if he didn’t need the work.  We had found old drawings, photographs and aerials, etc.  Do you think he any interest in any of this stuff.  I think you know the answer  

James Harrison (deceased) was a member of the asgca, and the father in law of Ferdidand Garvin, asgca. He lived in Pittsburgh and often advised at Oakmont.


Mark, who is Harrison and which courses has he done?