Tiger Makes Everybody Else Play Worse

[Richard Choi]

http://www.slate.com/id/2182671/

Very interesting article on how Tiger's presence affects fellow tour players' scores.

"Analyzing data from round-by-round scores from all PGA tournaments between 2002 and 2006 (over 20,000 player-rounds of golf), Brown finds that competitors fare less well—about an extra stroke per tournament—when Tiger is playing."

[John Moore II]

Ok, let me set this little lady who did this analysis straight.  The courses in general that Tiger competes on are harder. Does anyone want to argue that Augusta, TPC, Oakmont, Carnoustie, and Southern Hills (last years major venues) are harder than say Waialae, TPC Sugarloaf, Scottsdale, Deere Run and Brown Deer Park? I would say that those courses are far easier than the others mentioned. Tiger plays on tougher courses, it goes without saying the stroke average will be higher at the events he plays.

[Richard Choi]

But then, how do you explain the fact that the correlation is stronger with the top-players but not so strong with the guys at the bottom of the tour ranking?

If what you are saying is true, there should no difference between top ranked and low ranked guys. They should all play worse on tough courses.

[Joel_Stewart]

I pray this web site doesn't turn into Tiger chat like everything else in golf.

[Guy Nicholson]

In my view, Tiger's play encourages other players to play risky golf in order to beat him. His closest competitors play the riskiest golf of all. They're not undermotivated, they're overmotivated, and tend to bogey themselves out of contention gunning for too many pins - with notable exceptions, of course.

Because of the high number of variables in year-to-year and course-to-course comparisons, the most valid stats would be in tournaments where Tiger doesn't make the cut - same field, same course. Unfortunately, the sample size is too small.

[JESII]

Interesting what you can come up with when you come up with a premise and then go look for supporting data...tunnel vision.

[Richard Choi]

I like Guy's hypothesis.

You should suggest that to the author. It certainly fits everything the author is contributing as lack of motivation.

[J_ Crisham]

How can one explain Nick O'Hern going 2-0 against Tiger ? He is a good player but is he a great player? Maybe he is the modern version of Lee Trevino vs Nicklaus-minus Trevino's winning resume. Hard to figure Tiger's admittedly average record in Ryder Cups.

[JSlonis]

How can one explain Nick O'Hern going 2-0 against Tiger ? He is a good player but is he a great player?

Just a fluke.  An 18 hole match is a whole different ballgame than 72 holes of stroke play.  Think Tiger's record against him in the latter format is any good?

[C. Squier]

How can one explain Nick O'Hern going 2-0 against Tiger ? He is a good player but is he a great player? Maybe he is the modern version of Lee Trevino vs Nicklaus-minus Trevino's winning resume. Hard to figure Tiger's admittedly average record in Ryder Cups.

2-0 is statistically irrelevant.  

CPS

[David_Elvins]

But then, how do you explain the fact that the correlation is stronger with the top-players but not so strong with the guys at the bottom of the tour ranking?

low slope rating?

[A.G._Crockett]

How can one explain Nick O'Hern going 2-0 against Tiger ? He is a good player but is he a great player? Maybe he is the modern version of Lee Trevino vs Nicklaus-minus Trevino's winning resume. Hard to figure Tiger's admittedly average record in Ryder Cups.

I don't think it is THAT hard to at least make a good guess about Tiger's Ryder Cup record.  
     a. most of his partners feel LOTS of pressure not to cause a loss while partnered with somebody who normally can't be beaten, so they often play below their capabilities.
     b. ALL of Tiger's opponents in match play have absolutely nothing to lose and play loose and relaxed

In a two-man match play format, the combination of a. and b. above makes it an absolute crap shoot.  

As to Nick O'Hern, if they played for their lives, how many of you think O'Hern would be the one left alive at the end of the match?  He just didn't have anything to lose in the two matches they played, so he tree'd.  Put more at stake, and the outcome changes in a big way, IMO.  Tiger knows the difference between the Masters and Accenture or whatever it is called now.  So does O'Hern.