Jerry,
You beat me. I was sidetracked two days ago before I was going to start Does Size Matter...For a Hazard.
Plus yours is more erudite.
Very few balls were hit into the lake on 17. That is more reasonable because the penalty was essentially stroke and distance. It factors downwards because
-it's so small I won't get in it
-it's so shallow I can play out of it
-if I need to take a drop I can get up and down
It also works well on the 18th as an ego trap.
On the professional level we can xxxxx out the cost of a golf ball, but when I play I tend to steer away from lakes, but not from creeks.
I think the argument can best be distilled in less than an hour at Augusta National when you compare 13 vs 15.