Leave Merion to the Members and...

[JESII]

Justin Rose was 4th in 1998 at Birkdale.

[TEPaul]

David and Rich;

Those comparative numbers between elite amateurs and touring pros probably is about on the money. I sort of tend to throw out the single exceptions such as Ryan Moore at the Masters and that kid Levin, or whatever his name is at the Open at Shinnecock. (I think the kid actually finished in the top ten).

More importantly, I'd like to try to estimate what Merion East, set-up correctly for an Open would actually produce score-wise with the best players in the world.

I think the top 64 into match play at the Amateur needed an average of about 74, maybe 75 (at Merion) to make match play or a playoff.

Merion at the Amateur qualifying was not set-up very tough either. If it was set-up Open tough to make the cut in the Open would definitely be over par----how much over par is the question.

[AndrewB]

Those numbers are based on facts.  For the tour pros, numerous people have periodically computed "handicaps" and they come in the range I suggest.  As for the very best amateurs, you can get that from GHIN.  Last I heard only a very, very few have ever got as low as +6, including Justin Leonard and Sergio Garcia.  This jibes with the fact that these very top amateurs can occasionally compete with the exempt pros, as George suggests.

Rich,

I'm assuming the handicap ranges you give are meant to be USGA handicaps, is that right?

GHIN indicates that Michele Wie is a +6.8 (as of her last posted score in July of last year).  So, within the ranges you gave she fell under an exempt pro, which I'd say is just about right on the LPGA.

[Scott Stearns]

who cares where the cut is.  where do you think 20th place finishes--i.e. how low will the scores be for those who contend for the championship.  70th place is always going to be high in an open-1/2 the field is qualifiers and the set ups are and should be challenging.

My humble opinion is that 10 8-irons/wedges to greens will result in scores for the top 20 that are under 284.  To achieve this, the course would have to be pushed to the edge.  really deep rough and shinnecock sunday green speeds.  the patch in front of 10 will be mid-shin high and really thick.  balls could be lost there.

if set up to GCA-endorsed toughness, i.e. the rough allows some sort of recovery toward the green and putting speeds of 11 or so, maybe 12, i think everybody in the top 20 is 280 or better.

i agree with those who say that seeing a us open contested with wedges and putters would be exciting.  i just dont think this is the measuring standard for us opens.  guess i'm old school, but i think the us open should measure the ability to hit driver in the fairway, hold long irons on rock hard greens, and make 10 footers for par.  only places we get to see that, sad to say, are on 7500 yard courses.

[Scott Stearns]

by the way, the handicapping system for men and women is radically different, and designed to assist club golfers who hit the ball 240 yards off the tee play against women who hit it 20 or more yards shorter.

A +6.8 women's handicap is in no way comparable to a men's handicap.  to determine eligibility of women for mens events, the usga actually re computes hcps using the mens scale

[George Pazin]

who cares where the cut is.  where do you think 20th place finishes--i.e. how low will the scores be for those who contend for the championship.  70th place is always going to be high in an open-1/2 the field is qualifiers and the set ups are and should be challenging.

My humble opinion is that 10 8-irons/wedges to greens will result in scores for the top 20 that are under 284.  To avoid this, the course would have to be pushed to the edge.  really deep rough and shinnecock sunday green speeds.  the patch in front of 10 will be mid-shin high and really thick.  balls could be lost there.

if set up to GCA-endorsed toughness, i.e. the rough allows some sort of recovery toward the green and putting speeds of 11 or so, maybe 12, i think everybody in the top 20 is 280 or better.

i agree with those who say that seeing a us open contested with wedges and putters would be exciting.  i just dont think this is the measuring standard for us opens.  guess i'm old school, but i think the us open should measure the ability to hit driver in the fairway, hold long irons on rock hard greens, and make 10 footers for par.  only places we get to see that, sad to say, are on 7500 yard courses.

How far under 284? Now I really hope Merion gets an Open because I will gladly bet you on 20th place being no better than maybe 282, which is over par at Merion, isn't it? I'll also bet you that no one gets to double digits under par. Is Pebble obsolete because Tiger got to -12?

The bigger problem, of course, is how are we going to remember these bets if Merion gets the Open in 2013?

When was the last time you saw a pro hit a long iron into ANY par 4 in the US Open, setting aside the bizarre freak weather at Bethpage? I don't remember anything longer than a 7 last year. Take a look at the stats last year versus the pre-proV1 1999 Open.

[AndrewB]

A +6.8 women's handicap is in no way comparable to a men's handicap.  to determine eligibility of women for mens events, the usga actually re computes hcps using the mens scale

That's why I said LPGA and not PGA.  Almost all the course ratings from her posts were 79.x; I'd never seen a rating that high, so I assumed they were the women's ratings.

Not to get too off-topic, but how do they recompute?  Do they use the same ratings/slopes with a different formula, or do they change the ratings/slopes?

[TEPaul]

Scott:

If Merion is set-up well for an Open, I don't believe the top 20 will be at or under 280. 284 maybe but I don't think 20 would shoot par or better in an Open there ASSUMING that course can be set-up as it should be.

However, trying to predict a winning score of a US Open at Merion if it was set-up ideally for an Open could be very tricky--much harder than at most other courses, I think.

Merion is exactly the type of golf course that in an Open set up well, one golfer really playing well could do what Woods did at Pebble Beach in 2000----eg just totally separate himself from the rest of the field. I could very easily see that happening at Merion set-up well for a US Open.

I also think that's the type of golf course a US Open course should be.

[Scott Stearns]

tom, you made this point earlier in this thread and i've been thinking about it for the past few days.  I disagree.  2000 was pre-technology, or at least at the dawn of technology.  Urethane balls had yet to be fully accepted, launch monitors were nascent (i.e. not everybody was usng them) and thin faced drivers had yet to overcome the world.  Tiger (and tiger alone) was at that time a lot farther ahead of the world generally.

in the past two years, others have caught up, due in part to technology and conditioning, in part to working harder knowing they would have to do so to win.  Theres a whole group of people who are 15-20 yards longer, and who have been spending a lot of time around the green.

since driver provides so little advantage in so many holes, if somebody separates himself at merion today, i think its because he gets hot for a week with the putter and wedge, and that sounds more like the bob hope than the us open

[David Ober]

Those numbers are based on facts.  For the tour pros, numerous people have periodically computed "handicaps" and they come in the range I suggest.  As for the very best amateurs, you can get that from GHIN.  Last I heard only a very, very few have ever got as low as +6, including Justin Leonard and Sergio Garcia.  This jibes with the fact that these very top amateurs can occasionally compete with the exempt pros, as George suggests.

Rich,

I'm assuming the handicap ranges you give are meant to be USGA handicaps, is that right?

GHIN indicates that Michele Wie is a +6.8 (as of her last posted score in July of last year).  So, within the ranges you gave she fell under an exempt pro, which I'd say is just about right on the LPGA.

That's her women's handicap based on women's ratings, I'm pretty sure.

[Mike_Cirba]

Probably a more interesting comparison than pros vs top amateurs is to compare apples to apples.

In other words, I'd be interested to see scoring averages and statistical distribution of scoring for the medal rounds at other recent US AM sites, many of which (i.e. Oakmont, Baltusrol, Pebble Beach, etc) also just happen to be US Open sites.

Of course, it doesn't help that the medal rounds are split between the major course and another local venue, but I don't recall hearing anyone talk about a bloodbath and +8 scoring average at any of the other recent sites?

[David Ober]

A good one to check would be the California Amateur scores at Pebble Beach. The course is generally set up significantly tougher for the Amateur than it is for the AT&T, and probably only slightly less tough than during a U.S. Open.

One of the things I'm pretty sure you'll see, is that there are always quite a few amateurs that will play very well, and then at the bottom, you'll see some horrible scores, but most of those are due in large part to the nerves of younger or inexperienced first timers so awed by the experience of being there that they shoot 82 and are happy just to be there!

[Mike_Cirba]

David,

I just checked and of the 64 who made the cut for Match Play, they averaged +4.04 at Merion, with the best medal score being -1.  

I was there and it was nothing approaching a US Open type setup, either in firmness of greens (players made significant ballmarks) or in the depth and thickness of the rough (it was sparse from a very humid summer).  

[David Ober]

Then based upon that, it would be my contention that Merion would definitely hold up to a U.S. Open and not be dominated by the field. Might the winner shot 8, 9, or 10 under? Sure, but the course would hold up to the field very nicely.

[Mike_Cirba]

David,

I would concur given reasonable conditions.

However, in the case of a really wet week, I'm thinking scoring could go as low as 265 or so.

On the other hand, if the course gets baked out and some wind comes up (we do have windy days here inland in the spring folks), I'm thinking more like 276.

And what's wrong with that...I'd like to know.. - Paul McCartney

[Dan Boerger]

The course aside, hosting a US Open at Merion poses some very interesting logistical challenges. Here's what I could envision ...

Turn the current member practice range into the media village.

Have a constantly running electric or gasoline bus system with the west course, which will host the practice range and much of the corporate tents.

Make sure you're really chummy with Haverford College and key neighbors for other merchandise sales venues and parking.

Finally, look for lots of grandstands. Rough matted down by spectators isn't really Merion rough.

- Dan